Supreme: Il Etait Temps 13/2, Rare Edition 25s
The big unknown here is whether the Facile Vega we think he
could be shows up or the underwhelming one from last time. I’d say it’s 2/1 the
latter so will leave at current prices because top-drawer Facile Vega might not
win this anyway. Il Etait Temps has the most solid form in book (and more
pertinently perhaps, has run the best timefigure), so surely should be shorter
than 13/2 at time of writing. He’s a bet. Most of the others, including Grade 1
winners Marine Nationale and Tahmuras, are largely unproven. Those two may come
into it further if conditions become testing but are best left for now. It’s an
open race and should be the biggest field for a few years, so I wouldn’t be
against an each way poke at a big price as there could be 4 or 5 places on the
day. The other bet for me is Rare Edition at 25s or bigger, who ran a great
time on the same card as Constitution Hill at Christmas, had his form boosted
by the runner up that day recently and had excuses for being turned over at
odds on last time after scoping badly. He could still be a good one in an open
enough opener.
Arkle: Saint Roi 9s
No massive preference between Jonbon and El Fabiolo
(probably marginally prefer Jonbon) and wouldn’t count out Dysart Dynamo over a
furlong and a half less than the DRF and the downhill run before the last three
fences to fill his lungs up. In terms of a betting proposition though, the only
recommendation is Saint Roi. Don’t think he’ll win it and jumping is sketchy at
best, but he’s powered up the hill the last two years (including when 4th
in the Champion Hurdle) and with the likelihood of only 5 or 6 runners, you
might be able to steal 3 places antepost. I wouldn’t even be averse to backing
in a without market if one emerges before declarations, but be careful as
bookies don’t take kindly to “dirty” each way bets.
Ultima: Oscar Elite 12s, Iceo Madrik 50s
The one race on the Tuesday I’ve struggled for a selection,
because all those I fancy look fairly ground dependent and a couple I liked
have been taken out. Oscar Elite is definitely well handicapped off just 1lb
higher than his third in this last year. He’s coming in off the back of what
was probably a career best and loves Cheltenham in the spring. He wouldn’t want
it soft though, so maybe hold fire on that basis. If the heavens open, Iceo
Madrik could be interesting. He’s a bit of a stab in the dark at a wild price
as it’s his first run for David Pipe after coming over from France. He has run
to a good level in Grade 3s over there so 140 less 5lbs weight for age could
see him pretty well handicapped, for all his jumping is a bit ropey and he’s
only really ever run in the mud.
Champion Hurdle: Not So Sleepy (w/o Constitution Hill) 50s
Even if this race cuts up to 6 runners, which looks likely,
it should be one of the spectacles of the festival, either because Constitution
Hill produces another jaw-dropping performance or because State Man serves it
up to him in a real tussle. The former is the more likely but I can’t be
tipping him at 1.4 so the bet for this race is a slightly dirty each way
without the fav. Not So Sleepy is 50s in that market. He’s getting on a bit but
has run well in this in the last couple of years and may only need to beat one or
two home to be in the money.
Mares Hurdle: Honeysuckle 5/2, Queen’s Brook 11s
Lots of people are knocking Honeysuckle but she’s still put
up the best performance by a mare this season by coming second to State Man at
the DRF last time out in a race that wouldn’t have suited her (they went very
slow). Anything 2/1 or bigger is a bet, or at the very least one to add to your
accas. There’s a host of challengers, but I can’t see Epatante overturning the
form of their two Champion Hurdle meetings, Echoes In Rain may not stay and
wasn’t good enough last year, while Brandy Love and Love Envoi are yet to show they
can hit the required heights in open company. Last year’s winner Marie’s Rock
could be good enough but looks destined for the Stayers, so it’s the horse that
chased her home in that renewal who gets the each way nod at 14s or bigger (she
should lengthen based on her exchange price of 25). She made a hash of the last
then so could’ve been closer, beat Brandy Love comfortably last time
(admittedly in receipt of weight) and this would’ve been the plan all along so
there’s no reason to think she held much of a fitness edge. If a bit of the
forecast rain were to fall she’s a live player against plenty of suspect
stayers.
Boodles: Samuel Spade 20s, Almuhit 33s, Action Motion 33s, Jazzy
Matty 20s
Depending on how you read a race you can make a case for a
number in here. I generally plump for one on either side of the Irish Sea in
this on the basis that collateral form is pretty sparse for juveniles. This
year the general consensus is the Irish are much better than the British in
this division and while that may be true of the better horses (Comfort Zone and
Nusret have poached the three Grade 2s over here to date), those coming over at
a lower level have fared less well. Either way, Samuel Spade is certainly well
handicapped on form, particularly versus Perseus Way (and therefore all his
collateral form), given there’d be a whopping 14lb swing for a 3 length Perseus
Way victory when they faced each other earlier in the season. Samuel Spade has
won his other two starts eye-catchingly and it’s difficult to see where his
limit lies so should go well off 126. I like both of Denis Hogan’s in this at
bigger prices, Almuhit and Action Motion. The former will struggle to get in
off 117 (needs 3 to come out and same owners may plump for Action Motion
anyway), but ran ok last time despite nothing going right and looks very well
handicapped as a result, particularly if you take into account his flat rating
of 92. The latter was given a very tender ride after the last last time out
when in with a chance and looks feasibly handicapped on that basis at an each
way price off 125. I’d wait for the day as both are weak on the exchange. If
neither of those run, Jazzy Matty is more exposed than some others with five
starts but has been fairly well supported in most of these races and has had
various excuses (jumped the second last poorly and was then handled tenderly
last time) in those where he’s underperformed.
National Hunt Chase: Gaillard Du Mesnil 5/4
He’s flirting with odds on now and there have been upsets at
those prices in the past here, but Gaillard Du Mesnil harbours no real doubts
like some of them did. He stays (as shown in the Irish Grand National last
year), he’s classy (as shown by his Grade 1 win and 4th of 150 in
the Irish Grand National), he’ll have one of the better jockeys, he’s not
ground dependent – I could go on. He’s also got minimal competition. Stick him
in a double with Honeysuckle at anything around evens. Although unreliable, Minella
Crooner has the class to come second, so see if Jamie Codd picks Chemical
Energy instead and he drifts to a backable price (16s or bigger) each way or
even in the without market if there is one.