Antepost betting is just as much about beating starting price as it is about finding winners. What point is there placing a bet in advance when you can do it on the day without the attendant risk of injury or absence, unless the antepost price provides better value than the starting price? This is particularly true at Cheltenham, with extra places and all manner of offers available on the day.
This post aims to look at recent starting prices for each of the handicaps at Cheltenham to see whether the current antepost scene is best left alone or plundered. The tables show the number of horses in each starting price bracket for each race, as well as the situation with the current best odds (as per Oddschecker) this year.
Ultima | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 23 |
2017 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
2018 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 |
2019 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 |
2020 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
5 year average | 0.8 | 4 | 4.2 | 9 | 22.2 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
The Ultima currently has four horses under 16/1 and looks to be one the bookies have got stuck into judging by the amount of blue on Oddschecker, probably due to a few antepost fancies not being declared. Escaria Ten and Coko Beach may not turn up, meaning that there is certainly still value here if you look hard enough. Keep an eye out for more Irish horses than usual that may otherwise have gone for the Kim Muir. Some who may have had top Irish amateurs on board will revert to this race as they no longer have that advantage.
Boodles | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
2017 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 |
2018 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
2019 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 |
2020 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
5 year average | 0.8 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 21.8 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
The Boodles has a new slot this year on the Tuesday but its race conditions remain the same. It should be noted that of the four horses at 10/1 or lower, three are likely to head to the Triumph. The market is also top-heavy with horses towards the head of the weights and doesn’t seem to account for the fact that there are fewer entries this year. On the basis that all Irish horses get a 4lb rise (as per last year), I reckon 125 gets in, bringing a whole host of unexposed horses that have been running in a bog all winter. A few horses will also receive their first marks when assigned next week. Trying to find the right one is the difficulty…
Coral Cup | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
2017 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
2018 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
2019 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
2020 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 25 |
5 year average | 0.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 25.4 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
The Coral Cup is the biggest lottery of the festival with 26 horses, reflected by the low number of horses going off at lower prices. One to wait on in all likelihood due to the doubts about where horses will run (plenty are double or triple entered in the Martin Pipe and County) and the 7 or 8 places some books will offer.
Grand Annual | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
2017 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
2018 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
2019 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
2020 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
5 year average | 1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 21.4 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
2 year average | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 18.5 |
The Grand Annual is the most interesting of these, with the last two runnings capped at 20 (only 18 and 19 actually ran). From these, almost half the field have gone off under 16/1. Comparing this to the current year, only two are currently under 16/1. One of these is Sky Pirate, who looks a very opposable favourite having failed to lay a glove on Allmankind in receipt of 3lbs last time, meaning that there is plenty of value about. Embittered, Zanza and Us And Them are three that appeal to me at the moment but pick one that runs and the chances are you’ll beat SP.
Pertemps | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
2017 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 24 |
2018 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
2019 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
2020 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
5 year average | 1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 8 | 23.8 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
The Pertemps is one of the more developed markets, simply because we already know much of the field by dint of them having to qualify. One thing to note in this edition is a very low number of entries, to the extent that horses in the low 130s are likely to get a run. Hopefully the Punchestown qualifier can be rearranged, otherwise we’ll end up with a maximum of four Irish runners and might have to look elsewhere for this year’s winner…
Plate | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
2017 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
2018 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
2019 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
2020 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 23 |
5 year average | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 22.6 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The Plate may be the one handicap that bucks the trend by being even more competitive this year. Not only do you have many of the horses that would have contested the Novices’ Handicap Chase rocking up, but also those who don’t fancy taking on the likes of Envoi Allen and Monkfish in the novice chases. Competitive it may be, but the market appears to be recalibrating as many of those towards its head have not been entered and now could be the time to snatch some value.
Kim Muir | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
2017 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
2018 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
2019 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
2020 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
5 year average | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 7.4 | 22.4 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
As mentioned earlier, the Kim Muir will have no amateurs riding in it this year and the prospect of this may have been expected judging by the low number of entries, particularly from over the Irish sea. As noted on Twitter last week, while Run Wild Fred would have a great chance, there is every chance he will be given a mark of over 145 which would rule him out the race. Even if he does make the cut, there are only three Irish horses with (Irish) marks over 133, suggesting that this year’s incarnation will be a more British affair than the last few.
County | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
2017 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
2018 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 24 |
2019 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
2020 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
5 year average | 0.6 | 4 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 24.6 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
The County looks very open at the moment and may hinge on whether novices Blue Lord and Soaring Glory take up their entries here or in novice hurdles. Judging by the last few renewals, there may be some shortening in prices over the next couple of weeks, but maybe not to the extent of the other handicaps.
Martin Pipe | <6/1 | 6/1 - 10/1 | 11/1 - 15/1 | <16/1 | Runners |
2016 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 24 |
2017 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
2018 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
2019 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 24 |
2020 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 23 |
5 year average | 1 | 4 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 23.4 |
2021 (current) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Finally, the most competitive of them all (from an entries point of view, at least). The Martin Pipe has attracted 128 entries for 24 spots on the day. A lot of those towards the head of the market are Irish entries with huge scope for their marks to change. It would be a brave bettor to go rushing in on Wide Receiver, for example, knowing that his Irish mark of 130 may see him not make the cut, but that too much heavy-handedness from the British handicapper could see him rendered uncompetitive.