CHASERS (125-rated plus)
Risers (3lb+):
|
Name |
Rating |
Change |
|
KILLER
CLOWN (IRE) |
136 |
13 |
|
ECLAIR DE
GUYE (FR) |
125 |
9 |
|
MAYPOLE
CLASS (IRE) |
133 |
8 |
|
NEARLY
PERFECT (GB) |
135 |
8 |
|
CANELO
(IRE) |
148 |
6 |
|
MOMELLA
(IRE) |
139 |
4 |
|
WAITING
PATIENTLY (IRE) |
167 |
4 |
|
SNOW
LEOPARDESS (GB) |
138 |
3 |
Killer Clown won
the competitive novices’ handicap chase on Boxing Day at Kempton convincingly,
but 13lbs is a huge rise. Kempton is a fairly unique test with the speed at
which fences come at you and the winner was essentially the only horse not to
make a serious error that knocked him out the race. Several of his opponents, Hold
The Note and Alnadam in particular, would look to be more suited to a stiffer track.
Killer Clown’s strong travelling style, also in evidence at Sandown on his
previous outing where he emptied after the last, was ideal here on a course
where it’s notoriously difficult to peg back those who have set sail for home.
Frodon and Shan Blue demonstrated this later on the same card.
At Wetherby, Canelo and Snow Leopardess were
the two strongest in the betting and so it proved in the race, but their rises
of 6lbs and 3lbs respectively appear fair, with Canelo value for a good bit
more than the margin of victory. A stiffer test still could suit Snow
Leopardess and she may turn into a mare capable of competing in the many incarnations
of “National” that exist now.
Momella won well at Wincanton but a longer trip may
be needed to see her win again off her new mark of 139. At the same track, Nearly
Perfect was just that, giving Sizing Cusimano a sniff late on but ultimately
winning with a good bit in hand. He’ll still be competitive off 135, but
winning may prove difficult in hotter heats.
Non-movers* (2lbs- to 2lbs+):
|
Name |
Rating |
Change |
|
FRODON
(FR) |
169 |
1 |
|
CILL ANNA
(IRE) |
132 |
0 |
|
SON OF
CAMAS (FR) |
131 |
-1 |
|
HOLD THE
NOTE (IRE) |
138 |
-2 |
* Selected horses
The fact Frodon has only been raised 1lb demonstrates
that the handicapper didn’t think much of the form of the race. It also shows
that Frodon, on form alone, should not have been a 25/1 shot in the first
place. Yes he’s more suited to Cheltenham as he edges left with his jumping,
but this track rewards front runners that put their opponents to the sword with
the accuracy of their leaps.
Cill Anna looked like she might get the better of
Momella at Wincanton but nodded on landing after the last and then couldn’t get
back involved on the short run in. With that experience under her belt, she
could be a force to be reckoned with off that mark.
Short as we are on ammunition, the last two come from the
same race at Kempton. Son Of Camas was taking on more experienced horses
over fences and is sure to improve, particularly if meeting genuine good ground
for the first time in a while. 131 is a mark he is bound to win from if getting
his conditions.
Hold The Note is in danger of becoming a cliff horse
for me, but a drop of another 2lbs after a race that was just too sharp for him
now means he must come into consideration over a trip somewhere between the 3
miles 1 furlong on heavy at Cheltenham and the 2 miles 4 furlongs on soft at
Kempton.
3 to follow: Cill Anna, Son Of Camas, Hold The Note
HURDLERS (125-rated plus)
Risers (3lbs+):
|
Name |
Rating |
Change |
|
MONTE
CRISTO (FR) |
145 |
12 |
|
MINT
CONDITION (GB) |
135 |
8 |
|
JACAMAR
(GER) |
133 |
6 |
|
SILVER
STREAK (IRE) |
163 |
5 |
|
SOUTHFIELD
HARVEST (GB) |
135 |
5 |
|
PADDYS
MOTORBIKE (IRE) |
131 |
4 |
|
THIRD TIME
LUCKI (IRE) |
144 |
4 |
Monte Cristo blew a competitive-looking hurdle apart
and 12lbs looks fair with the scope to improve further in staying handicaps.
That performance franked the form of Jacamar, who was ridden more
prominently than at Newbury previously. 6lbs on top of the 8lbs he received
from his Aintree win sees him on 133, but this contest appeared to have a few
unexposed types and he could continue on the upgrade.
Non-movers* (2lbs- to 2lbs+):
|
Name |
Rating |
Change |
|
SHANG TANG
(IRE) |
130 |
0 |
|
COEUR DE
LION (GB) |
129 |
0 |
* Selected horses
Two early fallers here. Shang Tang’s form has now
been franked left right and centre, with Arrivederci and War Lord winning from
an earlier race in which he was third and now Southfield Harvest going close in
the race he fell early on. Southfield Harvest may have improved but Shang Tang didn’t
get the chance to and he may well do next time.
Coeur De Lion is recognised simply for how well
handicapped he remains off 129. He was backed in heavily from 14/1 to 7/1 in a
race littered with unexposed types, which goes to show that if he returns to
calmer waters (and stays on his feet), he’s got a handicap with similar
variables in his scope.
More to come next week when all the races from the 27th
December onwards will be taken into account in the ratings adjustments.