In-depth Ultima Preview

A slightly shorter one this time, as I don’t quite have the time to run through every runner like with the Boodles or Pertemps, but at least we have some clarity here now with 6-day confirmations. They leave the field as follows:

Horse	Cheltenham	Diff
Cepage	158
Aye Right	154
Pym	153
Ok Corral	151
Coko Beach	151	-1
Milan Native	149	-2
Escaria Ten	147	0
Happygolucky	147
Lieutenant Rocco	147
Remastered	146
Farclas	146	-2
Alnadam	145
Delire D'Estruval	143
Vintage Clouds	143
Admiral's Secret	142
Storm Control	142
Discordantly	142	-1
Cloudy Glen	140
One For The Team	140
Run Wild Fred	140	0
The Wolf	137
Almazhar Garde	135
Goose Man	135	0
Musical Slave	135
Soupy Soups	134
Didero Vallis	134
Nietzsche	134
Just Your Type	132
Townshend	132
Fingerontheswitch	130
Vivas	127

That's 31, of which there’s a good chance Escaria Ten, Farclas and Run Wild Fred swerve it for other opportunities. Then you have to consider the Leinster National at Naas this Sunday, for which a whole host of Cheltenham entries are also possibles. In this race that’s Goose Man, Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred again. My guess (and it’s only that) is that we won’t see any of those five here, but if Escaria Ten does turn up he’d be worth a bet. I’m not willing to play at skinny NRNB prices or antepost on the exchange though when it looks like he might be headed to the National Hunt Chase instead.

That would leave a measly two Irish entries, which isn’t so dissimilar to other years, and lack of numbers rather than any other reason perhaps explains why the British have a much better record here than in other handicaps. Milan Native leads the charge for the Irish off 149, 7lbs higher than for his decisive Kim Muir victory last year. This season he’s beaten the 150-rated Discorama, been understandably thrashed by the high class Minella Indo, been pulled up on soft over 3m5f before a lowly 15^th in the Leopardstown 3m handicap chase over Christmas. That sequence smacks of trying to make him into a graded performer before two runs where he was just treading water protecting a mark he’ll be looking to exploit here and in the Grand National. The latter is clearly the aim and he was specifically earmarked for it by (former) trainer Elliott after the weights came out, but a win here wouldn’t change his mark and I can see him putting up a big performance. 16s is decent, but expect to see bigger on the day as the trends people start putting up novices that have beaten nothing.

One of these is Happygolucky, whose form is very easy to poke holes in for an 11/2 shout. He’s beaten Paint The Dream, who is rated 147, but only attained that rating two runs later. He was then beaten by Getaway Trump in a tactical affair, where there’s every chance he was outpaced. He then beat The Mighty Don and Hold The Note next time out, neither of whom have done much for the form since. He's unexposed (and he’s not the only one in this field), but I’m by no means convinced he’ll improve on a rating of 147, let alone by enough to win the race. I may be proved wrong but I’m willing to let him go at the prices.

Even worse value (and this will be blasphemy to the trends followers) is Lieutenant Rocco, second in the market at 6/1. Also off 147, his best form is in heavy going, and judging by the weather forecast we’ll be good to soft or good to soft (soft in places) at worst on the Tuesday. He beat the 136-rated Nestor Park on his last run on heavy, and he, along with the third and fourth, blundered three out to give Lieutenant Rocco the advantage. From there he sauntered to victory, but I am by no means convinced he can repeat that on better ground, particularly off this rating. On the best ground he’s encountered, he was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett last year and his early season form in small-field novice chases is middling at best for me.

So with the top two in the market left firmly alone, next up is Aye Right, who may go off top weight depending on whether Cepage takes his chance. Aye Right has kept on improving this season and has been pretty unlucky on his last two starts. First up he was beaten easily by Cloth Cap, but he’s now rated a full 26lbs higher than for that run, so you’d think he probably ran up to the form of a Ladbrokes Trophy winner. He was raised 1lb for that and would have won the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster but for the jockey dropping his whip before 2 out. For all that, he’s only 4lbs higher now off 154. He races prominently, which is ideal for this test round the tighter Old Course and I think he’s about as close to a place banker as you can get in this race.

One For The Team ran well in novice chases at the start of the season, his best performance a length and a half second to Next Destination in a Grade 2 at Newbury on good ground. Since then he ran as well as could be expected in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Kempton over Christmas before being mildly disappointing in the Sky Bet Chase last time. The bonus is he’s only rated 140 after all that, and it wouldn’t surprise me were he to prevail here, but 10s is probably about right.

Remastered has an entry in the National Hunt Chase as well but he’s marginally stronger for this on the exchange at the moment. He’s another one who’ll be prominent and has improved massively for a move to fences, still unbeaten over the larger obstacles after the Reynoldstown two weeks ago. On balance, 146 looks lenient for him, but he’s only raced on heavy recently and horses running in the Reynoldstown have a poor recent record at Cheltenham. He’s probably best left for now unless there’s a deluge closer to the race.

I thought 8lbs was a harsh enough rise for Alnadam after last time, but he’s progressive enough. There’s a suspicion he enjoys Sandown more than elsewhere though and might have a preference for heavy ground.

Ok Corral hasn’t run since winning the Sky Bet Chase over a year ago. He has the class to figure off 151 but you’d have to think this might be treated as a prep for the National after that long absence.

Cepage is weak enough on the exchange for this so may not even run, but even if he does, 158 is a steep enough mark and he’s probably better over shorter trips where he can go forward and use his jumping as an asset.

Musical Slave has something in hand ability-wise off this mark, but his jumping has really gone to pieces on his last two starts and might struggle to hold his position around the Old Course.

Storm Control is another to add to the list of front runners if he goes here rather than the Kim Muir and might still have something in hand off 142. The slight issue is he achieved that mark on something of a hot streak before Christmas and since then has a forgettable performance in the Classic Chase at Warwick to get over where he probably didn’t stay. He’s by no means out of it and if he drifts a bit from 20s I’d be keen, but he’s not guaranteed to go here and there’s slightly better value out there.

Two falls in his last two starts doesn’t fill you with confidence about Discordantly and he’s yet to show he can handle a mark in the 140s when he does stay up after 12 runs over fences.

I was quite keen on Admiral’s Secret after the way he finished over 2m4f at Warwick last time but the two ahead of him didn’t exactly frank the form at Kelso last weekend. He’s a 9-year-old but yet to run over staying distances and if he drifts out to 40s or so might be worth a play.

Nietzsche is similar in that he’s yet to run over anything like three miles, but his runs over shorter have indicated a step up might suit. His form behind Ibleo and Sky Pirate doesn’t look as shabby as it did at the time as they’re both up 17lbs since. He now looks certain to get in, has good Cheltenham form and is probably worth an each way bet at 33s.

Of the remainder, Pym is probably the most interesting on decent ground. He went off 7/2 for the Rehearsal Chase and although he could only manage fifth behind Yorkhill, wouldn’t be ruled out here, for all his form has historically tailed off in the spring.

This race largely depends on how the ground will ride, but on the basis it'll be good to soft or thereabouts, Aye Right and Nietzsche look good each way value at 10s and 33s respectively. It'll be worth keeping an eye on Milan Native, Admiral's Secret and Storm Control as well if they drift from their current prices.