This post is designed to pinpoint a handful of races (generally, but not exclusively, handicaps) on Friday and at the weekend, taking advantage of two-day declarations to identify early prices that are patently wrong. Backing horses, when you drill down to the nuts and bolts of it, is all about variables. Trip, ground, track configuration, trainer form, time of year, jumping, freshness, field size, sectionals – the list goes on – are all tallied against weight (and by extension rating) and price.
Boxing Day is dangerous for a punter. Spread yourself too
thinly and you can put down a vast amount of money on scantily researched bets.
However, it can also offer up opportunity, with bookmakers having to cover plenty
of bases at once all in the midst of Christmas (and Brexit/COVID this year).
Best advice is to remain selective and pounce on the clear pricing errors that
do arise under that pressure. With that in mind, I’ve picked out four perennially
intriguing puzzles where there is value to be had. For the Welsh National on
the 27th, see my Ultimate Welsh National Preview.
BOXING DAY
Kempton, 13.15:
Always an informative contest, last year’s incarnation of
this novices’ handicap chase was particularly strong, boasting the fiercely
progressive Simply The Betts and On The Slopes, as well as Roll Again, who has also
won this season. Ironically, the winner of that race, Commanche Red, has
regressed since.
Another to have run (badly hampered by Roll Again’s fall and
subsequently pulled up as a result) was Hold The Note, who has somehow managed not to win in the meantime and reopposes with his novice status
in tact. Later that season he was just touched off by Two For Gold in the Grade
2 Hampton Novices’ Chase over 3 miles at Warwick despite looking the winner the
whole way down the stretch. He then put in a very good performance in the
now-extinct Cheltenham novices’ handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs, where
he was third behind two extremely well handicapped horses in Imperial Aura and
Galvin.
This season hasn’t reached those heights as yet. All three
runs have been over 3 miles, owing to what looked like a lack of turn of foot at
Cheltenham, and the first two were fairly ordinary. In the third at Cheltenham
a couple of weeks ago, he travelled sweetly before emptying up the hill on
heavy going. He was subsequently dropped 3lbs (as noted in that week’s Ratings Rundown) and is now off 140, 5lbs below the mark he was third off at the
Festival. The drop back in trip should suit and I think he should be favourite,
so 8/1 is certainly value (he opened up at 10/1).
Of his opponents, Mr One More is probably the most interesting,
coming second to Antunes at Chepstow off a mammoth layoff. He stayed on nicely
there and nearly stole the race, although the form wasn’t advertised by the
winner last weekend at Ascot over 2 miles 5 furlongs in the race won by Allart.
The favourite, Alnadam, is priced up off the back of his win
at Sandown and lightly raced profile. While I couldn’t knock the style of the
win that day, the fourth has come out and been soundly beaten in a much weaker
race since and Alnadam is up 8lbs. 11/4 is very short in a race this
competitive.
Kempton, 15.35:
The closing race on Kempton’s Boxing Day card is treated as
an afterthought by many, such is the feast of Grade 1 action beforehand with
the Kauto Star Novices Chase, Christmas Hurdle and King George reeled off one
after the other.
A whole host of unexposed sorts head the betting here and
any one of Riggs, Barbados Blue, Switch Hitter or Ecco could find the jolt of
improvement required to win this heat. However, my eye is immediately drawn to Coeur
De Lion, given his run over course and distance just before lockdown in
March.
He looked the winner that day before making a mess of two
out, after which he lost all momentum and came home in eighth. After that, he
reverted to the flat and won at Royal Ascot, before two less impressive flat
runs later in the summer. He returned over hurdles at Newbury but was always
behind in a race where the front two were the only ones involved. It didn’t
help that he probably doesn’t quite stay 3 miles anyway. Back at this trip and off 4lbs lower, he’s great
each way value at 14/1.
The biggest danger and one I’m sorely tempted to back as a
saver is Whatsupwithyou, who bounded strikingly clear at Cheltenham last
month before not being the first to be caught up the hill by a closer in soft
conditions. That kind of move wins races around flatter tracks like Kempton and
the only downside is that he’s been hit with a 5lb rise, which may leave him
slightly exposed. Currently 8/1 with bookies or 11 on the exchange, if he gets any
longer he’s worth a bet because I can’t believe we’ve seen the best of him yet.
Wetherby, 14.05
The Rowland Meyrick is often a weak race with the abundance of staying handicap chases at this time of year, and this one is no exception. The two that head the market, both 5/1, appear to be the right ones. Canelo was a never nearer second over a shorter trip at Newbury, for which he earned a 4lb rise that appears to be no less than fair.
Snow Leopardess is up 9lbs for her win at Haydock. That kind of rise is the sort that normally puts me off, but she has always shaped like staying chases would be her kind of thing and last time came rattling home to nick it from Commodore. He has since looked like going close at Cheltenham off 8lb higher in a hot race that included the well in Court Maid coming over from Ireland. Sam's Adventure, who won the Tommy Whittle last weekend at Haydock, was back in fifth, so the form looks strong. With plenty of rain about, it looks like it'll be a slog, which should be right up her street. 5/1 is a good price in a weak race.
Perhaps not for many of the others. Spiritofthegames was mooted to run in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham because he wasn't quite seeing out his races. That doesn't looked to have changed this season and a step up to 3 miles looks an act of desperation with him in the grip of the handicapper.
Wandrin Star has seen support, but it's difficult to see how he should fare any better than Quarenta did when soundly beaten at Ascot, having been put up 4lbs.
Springtown Lake is on a high enough mark and his runs when stepped up to 3 miles in the past have been some of his worst. Guitar Pete is another who'll struggle to stay on this ground.
Windsor Avenue has flattered to deceive and has a tendency to give up when not able to dominate, as was the case at Cheltenham last time.
Beau Bay was an impressive winner of the Grand Sefton where he stayed on strongly, but is up 7lbs for that win and has generally struggled away from the National fences. Finally, The Dutchman is up 5lbs for coming second in a veterans' race, the form of which is often questionable.
Wincanton, 13.34
Having said there are plenty of races to choose from on Boxing Day, I'll admit having had to rummage a bit for this race. The Pertemps Hurdle on the same card is tempting, but the race hinges on the two market leaders from the same form line of a four-runner race at Ascot. I noted Tedham in this week's Ratings Rundown, but looking back over his form, I don't see how a drop in trip will be beneficial and he now has a lot to prove.
So instead I've thought 'outside the box' and found a Class 3 3 mile handicap on the same card. Sizing Cusimano is extremely interesting back over this trip for the first time this season after a pipe opener over an inadequate 2 miles 3 furlongs where he plugged on to take a distant second. After that he went right up in trip to 3 miles 6 furlongs at Exeter, where he went off favourite and looked dangerous before not quite seeing out the trip.
This follows a distant second at the end of last season to none other than Springfield Fox, who is now second favourite for the Welsh National off a 25lb higher mark. The fourth that day won last month off a 2lb lower mark and it could be that Sizing Cusimano is now primed to strike off a career low mark over fences, particularly as the Tizzard yard is starting to emerge from the doldrums. He rates a bet at 11/2.
The danger is clearly the top weight and favourite Nearly Perfect, but he has gone up in the weights to a career high mark off the back of two wins in three runs and may be vulnerable to a lurker like Sizing Cusimano.