Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Grand National Weights: a different take

So the weights are out. There were never going to be many surprises, aside from the fact that Tiger Roll's connections will wait and see before committing to the race. Here they are with any adjustment from Irish or UK marks shown.

Horse

Irish

UK

GN

Diff

Santini

0

167

167

0

Easysland

0

0

167

Bristol de Mai

0

169

167

-2

Tiger Roll

0

0

166

Delta Work

168

0

166

-2

Presenting Percy

168

0

166

-2

The Storyteller

165

0

165

0

Chris's Dream

164

0

164

0

Battleoverdoyen

160

0

162

2

Yala Enki

0

160

160

0

Ballyoptic

0

158

158

0

Definitly Red

0

158

158

0

Lake View Lad

0

157

157

0

Magic of Light

155

0

156

1

Burrows Saint

156

0

156

0

Ajas

0

0

156

Anibale Fly

150

0

155

5

Tout Est Permis

153

0

155

2

Acapella Bourgeois

155

0

155

0

Aso

0

155

155

0

Mister Malarky

0

155

155

0

Talkischeap

0

155

155

0

Bellshill

0

153

153

0

Beware The Bear

0

153

153

0

Kimberlite Candy

0

153

153

0

Pym

0

153

153

0

Alpha des Obeaux

146

0

152

6

Any Second Now

151

0

152

1

Balko des Flos

151

0

152

1

Al Roc

0

152

152

0

Brahma Bull

150

0

151

1

Champagne Classic

151

0

151

0

Ok Corral

0

151

151

0

Articulum

149

0

150

1

Jett

150

0

150

0

Shattered Love

150

0

150

0

Takingrisks

0

150

150

0

The Jam Man

150

0

150

0

Milan Native

147

0

149

2

Class Conti

149

0

149

0

Discorama

149

0

149

0

Lord du Mesnil

0

149

149

0

Potters Corner

0

149

149

0

The Conditional

0

149

149

0

Cabaret Queen

147

0

148

1

Cloth Cap

0

148

148

0

Minellacelebration

0

148

148

0

Robin des Foret

148

0

148

0

Vieux Lion Rouge

0

148

148

0

The Long Mile

145

0

147

2

Canelo

0

147

147

0

Give Me A Copper

0

147

147

0

Glen Forsa

0

147

147

0

Yorkhill

0

147

147

0

Farclas

144

0

146

2

Minella Times

144

0

146

2

Agusta Gold

146

0

146

0

Hogan's Height

0

146

146

0

Sub Lieutenant

0

146

146

0

Ami Desbois

0

145

145

0

Blaklion

0

145

145

0

Double Shuffle

0

145

145

0

Gold Present

0

145

145

0

Keeper Hill

0

145

145

0

Moyhenna

145

0

145

0

Some Neck

142

0

144

2

Death Duty

144

0

144

0

Secret Reprieve

0

144

144

0

Rocky's Treasure

0

143

143

0

Cap du Nord

0

142

142

0

Deise Aba

0

142

142

0

Fagan

0

142

142

0

Golan Fortune

0

142

142

0

Jerrysback

0

142

142

0

Kauto Riko

0

142

142

0

Storm Control

0

142

142

0

Valtor

0

142

142

0

Saturnas

143

0

142

-1

Another Venture

0

140

140

0

Captain Drake

0

140

140

0

Crievehill

0

140

140

0

Run Wild Fred

140

0

140

0

The Hollow Ginge

0

140

140

0

Fitzhenry

136

0

139

3

Flying Angel

0

139

139

0

Le Breuil

0

139

139

0

Prime Venture

0

139

139

0

Plan of Attack

137

0

138

1

Roaring Bull

137

0

138

1

A Toi Phil

0

138

138

0

Achille

0

138

138

0

Dounikos

138

0

138

0

Hold The Note

0

138

138

0

Treacysenniscorthy

136

0

137

1

Musical Slave

0

137

137

0

Soupy Soups

0

137

137

0

Hear No Evil

130

0

136

6

Beau Bay

0

136

136

0

Shantou Flyer

0

136

136

0

Monbeg Notorious

134

0

135

1

Aforementioned

133

0

134

1

Saint Xavier

0

134

134

0

Fingerontheswitch

0

132

132

0

One Style

0

132

132

0

Bellow Mome

131

0

131

0


My two current fancies are big enough prices at the moment. Milan Native is still around at 50s despite Gordon Elliott giving him a special mention in his post-weights interview. Some Neck will likely run in the Cross Country at Cheltenham (where I also have high hopes for him), which has proven no barrier to performing well in this race in the past. He’s 66s but NRNB (50s) is advised as he’ll be near the foot of the weights and this appears to be less his target.

But neither the weights nor my fancies are what I’m writing about. With the National weights coming out almost two months before the event itself, many if not most horses will have a prep run or two to put themselves right for the big event. Unlike for other events such as the Welsh National and Betfair Hurdle where weights are announced in advance, there are no penalties for winning a race in the period between now and the National. That means that any number of horses can run well in their prep race and make themselves well in, while others can perform badly and see themselves running off higher than their true mark.

Below, therefore, are some dates for the diary for key prep races where some of the above contenders will likely head before Aintree. These races are all chases (some may have a spin over hurdles, but that is unlikely to change their chase rating) that have been contended by horses running in the last two editions of the National, along with an extra couple that seem like they could accommodate this year’s entries. It could pay to react to a head-turning performance before the bookies do.

Date

Track

Race

20/02/2021

Gowran Park

Red Mills Chase

20/02/2021

Ascot

Swinley Chase

20/02/2021

Haydock

Grand National Trial

20/02/2021

Wincanton

Betway Handicap Chase

21/02/2021

Newbury

Denman Chase

27/02/2021

Fairyhouse

Bobbyjo Chase

27/02/2021

Kempton

3m Handicap Chase

27/02/2021

Newcastle

Eider Chase

06/03/2021

Kelso

Premier Chase

06/03/2021

Newbury

Greatwood Gold Cup

14/03/2021

Naas

Leinster National

16/03/2021

Cheltenham

Ultima Handicap Chase

17/03/2021

Cheltenham

Glenfarclas Cross Country

17/03/2021

Down Royal

3m1f Handicap Chase

18/03/2021

Cheltenham

Festival Plate

19/03/2021

Cheltenham

Cheltenham Gold Cup

19/03/2021

Cheltenham

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

20/03/2021

Uttoxeter

Midlands Grand National

27/03/2021

Newbury

3m2f Handicap Chase

 

I will add to this list the horses that have run, their finishing position and the effect it has had on their marks as we go along, but tune in for a few trials this weekend!