Ratings Rundown - 5th January 2020

 

CHASERS (125-rated plus)

Risers (3lb+):

Name	Rating	Change
EST ILLIC (IRE)	129	18
ROYALE PAGAILLE (FR)	154	14
NUBE NEGRA (SPA)	165	13
PAINT THE DREAM (GB)	147	10
ROMAIN DE SENAM (FR)	148	10
MAC TOTTIE (GB)	126	8
TRUCKIN AWAY (IRE)	135	8
IBLEO (FR)	147	7
FUNAMBULE SIVOLA (FR)	130	6
NESTOR PARK (FR)	136	6
TAMAROC DU MATHAN (FR)	147	6
ANNIE MC (IRE)	145	5
CYCLOP (IRE)	125	5
CAP DU NORD (FR)	137	4
LITHIC (IRE)	127	4
FAST BUCK (FR)	145	3
PADDY'S POEM (GB)	127	3
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (GB)	142	3
SHISHKIN (IRE)	162	3

 

Lots to talk about this week, lumped as we are with every horse that’s raced since 27^th December. Plenty of taking performances fill the top few spaces in the above table, but of Romain De Senam, Paint The Dream and Royale Pagaille, only the last named is yet to have his limitations exposed at his lofty new mark. That said, 154 is high enough for a horse that has only shown anything twice in this country. Espoir De Romay should give us a greater indication of where we stand with Royale Pagaille if and when he lines up at Kempton this weekend off 140, a mark that should be within range. Whether the form is franked or not, might we see the Venetia Williams horse in one of the novice festival races? What was the RSA looks the obvious shout, but then you've got Monkfish under the same ownership to contend with. A nice problem to have...

Of more interest with future targets in mind is Funambule Sivola, who won cosily enough at Newbury last week to suggest 6lbs won’t stop him next time. A strong traveller, this horse may be even better suited to a speed track with less arduous fences. A 6lb rise won’t stop him in my view.

Nick Gifford implied Paddy’s Poem would need the run and might struggle on the ground, so such a strong performance where he was only overhauled by the race-hardened Ibleo in the last 150 yards bodes well for next time up only 3lbs.

3 to follow: Royale Pagaille, Funambule Sivola, Paddy’s Poem

 

Non-movers* (2lbs- to 2lbs+):

Name	Rating	Change
ERAGONE (FR)	134	2
DICKIE DIVER (IRE)	142	1
CUT THE MUSTARD (FR)	140	0
LOCK'S CORNER (IRE)	140	-1

* Selected horses

I have little doubt Eragone would have beaten First Flow at Wetherby but for some poor steering / bad luck in running and so it’s no surprised they’ve both been raised 2lbs. Eragone was a pound out the handicap so has effectively been raised 1lb. He therefore looks to have the greater scope to improve given a step back up in trip. His previous run was his first in the UK and can be best ignored with him jumping poorly.

Dickie Diver is one to watch extremely carefully, given his encouraging return in the novices handicap at Newbury won by Paint The Dream. The Albert Bartlett fourth from the 2019 Cheltenham Festival has the potential to be a good bit better than 142, particularly as this was his first run in a long while, and this run suggested that his ability remains intact. A run at the National Hunt Chase, where the masterful Derek O’Connor could take the ride given his JP McManus connections, would be very interesting indeed. He’s currently 33/1 and I wouldn’t put you off at all.

Most of Nicholls’ Sullivan transferees from the Mullins yard have needed at least one run and Cut The Mustard appeared to be the same, travelling well before tiring towards the end to finish a well-beaten second to Annie Mc at Doncaster. She was weak in the market and should improve from 140 in time given her Irish form, which is solid enough to suggest a tilt at the Mares Chase at the festival may not be off the cards. If not, handicapping off 140 would make her interesting.

Lock’s Corner was something of an anomaly as a horse to cross the Irish Sea over the Christmas period and even more of an oddity to go off a British-trained favourite of a fiercely competitive Irish handicap. He wasn’t running too badly when making a shuddering error two out, after which he was pulled up. The handicapper has lowered him a pound to 140, and given the impression he gave off on his penultimate run at Kempton, needs to be watched wherever he turns up next in the UK.

There were a whole host of horses whose handicaps fell 3lbs or greater, but none I’d rush to get on side next time out so that section is omitted this week.

3 to follow: Eragone, Dickie Diver, Lock’s Corner

 

HURDLERS (125-rated plus)

Risers (3lbs+):

Name	Rating	Change
MICK MAESTRO (FR)	135	12
CADZAND (IRE)	138	9
GORTROE JOE (IRE)	128	8
BRAVEMANSGAME (FR)	150	7
GUARD YOUR DREAMS (GB)	135	7
METIER (IRE)	149	7
MOLLY OLLYS WISHES (GB)	137	7
NAVAJO PASS (GB)	149	7
ROCK ON FRUITY (IRE)	131	7
SHAKEM UP'ARRY (IRE)	136	6
WHITEHOTCHILLIFILI (IRE)	136	6
FLEMCARA (IRE)	134	5
FRIEND OR FOE (FR)	146	5
BROKEN QUEST (IRE)	128	4
CALVA D'AUGE (FR)	140	4
EN MEME TEMPS (FR)	125	4
HACKER DES PLACES (FR)	136	4
PREMIER D'TROICE (FR)	128	4
TALKING ABOUT YOU (GB)	135	3

 

Mick Maestro looked turbo charged the whole way round and, despite almost unseating halfway down the back straight, hosed up at Catterick. 12lbs seems fair enough, although you wonder how strong the race was and Nick Kent can’t continue his obscenely good form forever.

Cadzand looks ripe for a valuable 2 mile handicap hurdle after swatting aside a good field at Kempton. I have no qualms with his 9lb rise and the Betfair and/or County Hurdle could allow him to prove himself the latest in recent spree of Skelton-trained valuable 2 mile handicap hurdle winners.

Shakem Up’Arry was the only one to give Metier a race but outperformed his mark of 130 enough to be dealt a 6lb rise. He’s been a tad unlucky in constantly coming up against monsters like Shishkin but 136 may underestimate him and don’t be surprised to see him get in amongst some weighty prizes on soft ground round a flat track.

 

Non-movers* (2lbs- to 2lbs+):

Name	Rating	Change
BLAKENEY POINT (GB)	127	2
GOSHEVEN (IRE)	125	2
TORIGNI (FR)	133	1
MILKWOOD (IRE)	141	-1

* Selected horses

It baffles me how Blakeney Point went off 22/1 at Musselburgh given the ratings of all the horses he’d finished in and around suggesting he was a good bit better than 125. A rise of 2lbs underestimates that and he has every chance to go and win again next time out.

Gosheven came up against a proven mudlark in Flemcara and succumbed, never quite seeming happy jumping out of the heavy ground. He’s of interest up just 2lbs back on a sounder surface.

Torigni has form with Haafapiece and Albert’s Back, which makes him a strong candidate to outperform his mark of 133 and he nearly did so at Kempton. Probably because Daryl Jacob had done so aboard Monte Cristo the day before he stayed to inside, despite all the hurdles winners coming up the standside rail. There’s little doubt that that and the fact he walloped the second last hurdle prevented him getting closer to Cadzand and he’s unlikely to come up against such a well-handicapped horse next time up just 1lb.

Milkwood has been lowered a pound due to collateral form with The Pink’n, who slightly underperformed at Sandown at the weekend. However, Milkwood’s misfortune was to get hampered behind Thyme White at Newbury at the end of November. He was already in my tracker, but will be even more so now down another pound, and the spring handicap hurdles can’t come soon enough for him.

3 to follow: Blakeney Point, Torigni, Milkwood

 

Newbies* (new entries):

Name	Rating
GOOD BALL (FR)	126
THE GLANCING QUEEN (IRE)	131

* Selected horses

Good Ball was one of the first off the bridle at Newbury but stayed on powerfully to win over what is clearly an inadequate 2 miles. Nicholls may struggle to find a testing enough race for him this season as a juvenile without going into open handicaps, but he looks a stayer in the making and one a good bit better than 126.

If we are to believe that Star Gate is a 145-rated horse, then The Glancing Queen could be thrown in off 131, fillies’ allowance or not, in any number of handicaps. Already a high class bumper winner, 131 appears to be a stab in the dark the handicapper is likely to come to regret.