Turners: Sir Gerhard 7s, Mcfabulous 66s
This race is a bit deeper than the market would suggest, so
I’d be wary of backing Mighty Potter at anything less than 2s. I don’t for one
moment think Sir Gerhard will run here unless it gets testing, but if he does
he’s certainly no 7s (NRNB) shot. He’s unbeaten at Cheltenham and probably has
the best engine of these, which could make up for his lack of experience over
fences. If he doesn’t run, Appreciate It and Banbridge are no mugs, having come
second and third in a much deeper race than Mighty Potter’s at Leopardstown, and
I was tempted to put Balco Coastal up until he shortened after confirmations as
he’s bound to improve for a left-handed track. However, the bet (NRNB) is
Mcfabulous at a whopping 66/1. He’s not that likely to run but the fact he was
confirmed at the 6-day stage suggests he might do and you can forget two of his
runs this season where he was pulled up on rock-hard ground. He came back after
the first of these to easily dispose of the well-touted Thyme Hill at Exeter
and although that form was overturned convincingly next time out, his hurdle
form has him as good as most of these from a class angle.
Pertemps: Maxxum 8s, Jet Of Magic 33s
I normally try and find some value here, but the new
conditions of this race (have to finish first 4 rather than first 6 in a qualifier)
mean that it’s a bit short on depth and we may not even get a full field. It
now looks like soft ground is likely, and very few of those at the head of the
market (or in general) have form on anything softer than good. Maxxum was all
the rage before a tame display at the DRF but the time he put up in the
Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas before that (on soft ground) would put him
in contention for the Stayers Hurdle. He’s been put up 25lbs from his Irish
rating since then but I have little doubt that he is a graded horse
masquerading in a handicap and 145 may still see him very well in. A lot of the
other fancied horses (Shoot First, Salvador Ziggy, An Tailliur) haven’t run for
a few months and are unproven on soft ground, but one who looks like they still
have more to give is Jet Of Magic. No idea if he runs as he’s about 85 on the exchange
(but question why he’d be confirmed if he doesn’t). He’d handle cut, has gone
of favourite a couple of times off near enough this mark and at both Sandown
and Cheltenham made a bit of a mess of the last couple of hurdles, which dented
his chances. He travels well and might be worth nibbling at on the exchange or
backing at a big price if declared.
Ryanair: Hitman 22s
Shishkin is a long way clear of the others here, the only
question mark being whether he’ll be able to follow up such a monstrous
performance in the Ascot Chase 3 weeks ago. 4/5 isn’t my kind of price but I wouldn’t
put you off sticking him in an acca or two as it’s probably still value. The
rest in this race are fairly inconsistent and the one who looks overpriced is
Hitman. This trip is his optimum and his form prior to the King George (where
he made a blunder early on and never travelled after) puts him firmly in the
race for second here.
Stayers: Gold Tweet 14s, Henri Le Farceur 25s
This race is a mess and very difficult to make head or tail
of due to the number of horses coming into it with some kind of question mark.
Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter and Klassical Dream have all had to overcome
niggles of some kind (even if there’s every suspicion Charles Byrnes’ regular
updates are done so with his pocket in mind). Teahupoo should like the soft
ground but you’d have to question his aptitude for Cheltenham at a short price.
Marie’s Rock may not stay on the soft ground as a free-going type and there’s
every chance connections revert to Plan A in the mares’ hurdle. Home By The Lee
has decent form on the face of it but he’s yet to put a good time in on the
clock. Gold Tweet, however, was impressive in dispatching solid yardsticks
Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle last time and should go
well off what could be a slow pace again. Henri Le Farceur is a bit of an
unknown quantity but has better French form that Gold Tweet and therefore looks
too big at double his price.
Plate: Frero Banbou 12s, War Lord 20s
I’m keen to take on So Scottish at the head of the market with a bit of rain forecast, but there don’t appear to be many progressive horses high enough in the weights to get in. War Lord looks well handicapped and must have more to give over this trip with a more forward ride. Tizzard horses generally run over trips that are too short for too long and War Lord looks more of a 2m4f/3m horse than 2m. He looked back to form last time behind Gemirande (just touched off recently off 6lbs higher and also interesting in this but unlikely to get in off 132) and should appreciate some cut in the ground. There isn’t much left to shout about in this race, particularly if you think the Irish chasers tend to be slightly over-handicapped when they come to Cheltenham. Frero Banbou goes very well on soft ground, so if it is testing he should be a player off 6lbs lower than his Grand Annual 3rd last year. He looks like he needs the extra mileage now anyway so 12s is a decent enough price in a race where not much else sticks out.
Mares Novice Hurdle: Jetara 16s, Ahorsewithnoname 25s,
Harmonya Maker 33s
Although it doesn’t always play out that way, some years the
5lb penalty incurred by certain horses for this race can be underestimated in
the betting and I’ve picked out four of interest at big prices. Of the fancied
horses, Luccia, Ashroe Diamond, Magical Zoe and You Wear It Well all carry a
penalty and I’d be inclined to steer clear of them for betting purposes as a
result. Luccia could be a worldbeater but hasn’t shown enough yet to justify odds
of 13/8 with the penalty taken into account. Of those without a penalty, Halka
Du Tabert has run a decent timefigure, but frontrunners tend to struggle with
the long straight on the New Course. I prefer the claims of the horse that
finished in front of her in that race, Jetara, who also split High Definition
and the well-touted Parmenion on her previous run before that. She’ll run
without a penalty and should go close as the second-top rated (by the BHA) in
the field after Luccia. Last year’s second, Ahorsewithnoname, runs again and is
a big price considering she’s shown her aptitude for a race of this nature. The
final dart here is Harmonya Maker (who may not run given her weakness on the
exchange in recent days and weeks). She put up one of the best timefigures this
season on her penultimate start and looks to stay well (which could be key on
the likely ground). She unseated last time out, but seems underestimated based
on her previous exploits.
Kim Muir: Next Destination 14s, Fontaine Collonges 33s
Irish horses tend to be overbet in this race as people
assume that the better amateurs on that side of the Irish Sea will lift their
horses home. The reality is that British horses have a decent record in the
race and are likely to be better handicapped overall. I’m therefore avoiding
the likes of Stumptown, Mr Incredible, Angels Dawn and Dunboyne and plumping
for a couple of British horses for value reasons. The first of those is Next
Destination, a horse who was one of the leading staying novices two seasons
ago. He’s had his share of injury problems before and since then but he came
back to a high level then and has moved to Nicky Henderson, one of the best in
the business of getting a horse to peak first time out after a long absence. He
could make a mark of 145 look very lenient if back to 90% of his best. The
other selection is Fontaine Collonges, but only if the ground is soft. She has
improved steadily for increases in trip and heavy going and if the taps are
turned on on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as forecast, she seems
well enough handicapped to have a say here for last year’s winning trainer.