Apart from the Grand National, the Welsh National is the only race to have its weights released and fixed (apart from a 4lb penalty for winners) over a month in advance of the race. This makes it both unique and intriguing from a betting perspective, as horses have time to run in the month preceding the race without drastically changing the weight they carry.
There are, as it happens, several prep races falling in this period that generally provide a good starting point when looking at horses that have evidenced superior (or inferior) ability to the weight allotted to them. The Ladbrokes Trophy, Becher Chase and Welsh National Trial all came under this bracket and contained contenders for this year’s event. The table below shows the current entries, sorted by best price as per Oddschecker, along with how well or badly weighted they are.
Horse | Odds (Fractional) | Adjusted Allotted Rating* | Official Rating | lbs in hand |
Secret Reprieve | 4 | 134 | 142 | 8 |
Vieux Lion Rouge | 20 | 144 | 152 | 8 |
Truckers Lodge | 11 | 155 | 155 | 0 |
The Two Amigos | 14 | 142 | 142 | 0 |
Christmas In April | 12 | 136 | 136 | 0 |
Yala Enki | 12 | 159 | 159 | 0 |
Ramses De Teillee | 14 | 153 | 153 | 0 |
Prime Venture | 14 | 139 | 139 | 0 |
Dominateur | 16 | 141 | 141 | 0 |
Cloudy Glen | 25 | 145 | 145 | 0 |
Big River | 25 | 141 | 141 | 0 |
Bobo Mac | 16 | 135 | 134 | -1 |
The Hollow Ginge | 20 | 144 | 143 | -1 |
Springfield Fox | 8 | 142 | 140 | -2 |
Lord Du Mesnil | 16 | 152 | 150 | -2 |
Captain Drake | 25 | 140 | 138 | -2 |
Joe Farrell | 40 | 137 | 135 | -2 |
Didero Vallis | 33 | 133 | 130 | -3 |
Alminar | 100 | 133 | 118 | -15 |
* The rating allotted to each horse when the weights were released at the end of November, adjusted for penalties of 4lbs for winning in the meantime and adjusted for those likely to be out the handicap (carrying 10st when their rating implies they should be carrying less), assuming Yala Enki remains top weight on 159.
The first thing to point out from this view is that 9 horses, nearly half of the 19-strong field at this stage, are “wrong” at the weights. That doesn’t mean they can’t win and many will argue that a pound or two makes minimal difference with distances accentuated in the Chepstow mud.
However, it certainly doesn’t make their jobs easier, particularly when you look at the other end of the scale, with two horses 8lbs well in. That means that were Vieux Lion Rouge to come up against Springfield Fox in a normal handicap he’d be giving away 12lbs, but the vagaries of this race mean it’s just 2lbs. And yet the latter is less than half the price of the former. More on that below.
It seems appropriate to start with the 4/1 favourite Secret Reprieve, who rightly heads the market following a bloodless victory over The Two Amigos in the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow on heavy going at the beginning of the month. Ground – check. Track – check. Weight – double check. Three question marks remain.
Whether he will stay another seven furlongs is up for debate (and one raised by his trainer, Evan Wiliams, no less), but he showed no sign of stopping at 3 miles in the trial. That said, he appeared to beat The Two Amigos with a turn of foot after jumping three out – that’s unlikely to be his trump card were he to win here.
The nature of that race, which appeared to sap very little from him as he bounded 12 lengths clear may render the next question moot, in that he has had a relatively slim three weeks off to prepare.
The other potential fallibility is his jumping, having got in tight and upended Adam Wedge at Haydock two runs ago. Again, there’s no saying whether he’ll do it again and his fencing was far sounder at Chepstow, but it’s another lingering doubt and just enough to put you off at 4/1. Clearly, he remains the most likely winner and unfortunately this blog was a little late in its arrival to identify him while there was still 12/1 about in the aftermath of his trial win. But we move on, as his current price means there is value elsewhere.
The only other horse well in, also by 8lbs, is Vieux Lion Rouge. People love to knock him and there was a mixture of mockery and outrage when the handicapper had the temerity to raise him 12lbs as an 11-year-old, but his win in the Becher over the National fences at Aintree by 24 lengths to a decent yardstick in Kimberlite Candy gave room for little else.
Let’s get the negatives out the way. Yes, he probably reserves his best for the National fences. Perhaps he hasn’t always looked the most resolute stayer. His only run in the Welsh National came in the 2018 edition when he was pulled up off the back of coming second in the Becher. This year’s Becher was rendered rather uncompetitive with only 8 finishers, the remainder all falling or unseating, including favourite Walk In The Mill and well fancied duo of Coo Star Sivola and Yala Enki. His 12lb rise is probably excessive, considering he’s about to turn 12 and hasn’t got a hope in any race, those over the National fences included, off 152.
But he did win at Chepstow last October off 142 on soft ground. He won the Grand National Trial in 2017 over 3 miles 5 furlongs and horses tend to stay better with age. Even if the 12lbs is excessive, he was certainly value for at least 8lbs, which would still leave him 4lbs well in. Besides, if he hasn’t got a hope in any other future race trainer David Pipe will be readying him for this as one last shot to go out all guns blazing while still on a manageable mark. And that Becher performance was arguably his best ever, only inferior to that Grand National Trial win three years ago on Racing Post Ratings, all of which suggests he’s going there in fantastic nick, 11 years old or not. He’s 20/1 with a couple of bookmakers who also happen to be paying 5 places. An each way bet if ever I saw one but hold your horses until declarations on Thursday as he’s weak enough on the exchange to suggest he may not run.
There are other dangers. Of those running off their current marks, Christmas In April looks made for a race of this type with a couple of regional “nationals” already in the bank. He looked a bit laboured when soundly beaten on his return, but is entitled to strip fitter now and the Tizzard yard hitting indifferent, as opposed to outright bad, form. However, I’m rather loathed to take the 12/1 available when there was 25/1 floating about a couple of days ago and he’s probably a fair price now.
The Two Amigos ran a good race when second to Secret Reprieve last time and should do better over this trip having finished a solid fifth last year, although it is difficult to see how he beats Secret Reprieve this time around with only a 4lb swing for a 12-length beating.
I would have been all over Moyhenna had Irish horses been allowed to come over, but that possibility was ruled out today, so it was just as well something else took my fancy...
Cloudy Glen would have a very likeable profile but for a slightly disappointing run at Sandown last time in the London National. He travelled into the race very nicely but his jumping errors told in the end and he finished a tired fifth of 7. Despite that, the form of his win two runs ago was advertised by Doing Fine turning the tables with a 12lb swing.
Aside from that, Cloudy Glen has a very progressive profile over staying trips and back on the anticipated genuine heavy ground as opposed to the gluey conditions at Sandown that day, he could well resume an upward curve. 20/1 looks big enough to find out about a Venetia Williams horse around Chepstow in December and he seems a very solid each way bet.
A word or two on the remainder. Truckers Lodge ran very well a year ago to finish second and is clearly well suited to the race but is now 16lbs higher following his Midlands National win in March and an unseat on seasonal debut is not ideal preparation.
Yala Enki is another with form over course and distance having filled third place in the last two runnings. However, he’d have to improve upon even Native River’s win three years ago off top weight on stamina sapping ground and I don’t think he’s good enough.
Ramses De Teillee beat Yala Enki at the Cheltenham November meeting and you can draw a line through his Becher run where he didn’t take to the National fences for the second time. However, rather like the previous two, he shoulders a fair burden after being put up 4lbs for his Cheltenham win and I’d be surprised if there’s not something more progressive to improve past him.
Prime Venture is only 4lbs higher than when coming fourth last year, but that rise came in a 3-runner race and you can’t help thinking he could have done without it. He was pulled up in the Midlands National in March off a lower mark.
Dominateur produced a career best in the novices’ handicap chase on this card a year ago but his only foray into a big field handicap like this ended with him coming last in the Midlands National in March. That’s also the only time he’s run over a trip longer than 3 miles, which doesn’t bode well for this stamina sapping contest.
Big River is entitled to come on for his run where he finished well behind Yala Enki and Ramses De Teillee at Cheltenham. He’s also run well in the last two Ultimas at the Cheltenham Festival as well as a Scottish National, all on a variety of going. Yet his record before the New Year has been woeful the last couple of seasons and it may be we have to wait until Spring to see the very best of him.
So those are the horses that aren’t “wrong” at the weights. Bobo Mac is 1lb wrong, and that came courtesy of a third place in the race won by Secret Reprieve. Rather like The Two Amigos, it is a struggle to see him overcoming the evidence of that race, even if he were to strip fitter, given his only run over longer than 3 miles last season was his worst in the Classic Chase at Warwick.
The Hollow Ginge is 1lb wrong after what most would agree was a good run to finish fourth at a big price in the Ladbrokes Trophy. But that was on good ground and unfortunately I can’t get his woeful performance in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham out my head over similar distance on similar ground, where he should have had a decent chance of placing. He’s not quite a big enough price to consider for me.
Springfield Fox is 2lbs wrong after a prep run over hurdles, which seems generous, except for the fact that he won’t be able to take advantage here. Last season saw two facile wins in novices’ handicap chases off 117 and 127 before he fell at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Chase. There are far too many question marks for me to entertain backing him at 8/1 given he won’t have jumped a fence in public since that sketchy round at Cheltenham and his freewheeling style means I have doubts about him getting the trip, for all he remains probably the most unexposed horse in the race.
Lord Du Mesnil ran a cracker in the National Hunt Chase and is clearly at home in staying chases on soft ground, a good place to start in the Welsh National. Like with Springfield Fox’s run over hurdles, the handicapper seems to have fallen for the oldest trick in the trainer handbook by dropping him 2lbs following an understandably lacklustre display in the Grand Sefton over an inadequate 2 miles 5 furlongs at Aintree. Not that he’ll lose those 2lbs here. He’s weighted to the hilt on account of his exploits last season and I’d be surprised if there’s not a better handicapped horse in the race.
That leaves us with some of the least likely winners in my book. Captain Drake has looked nothing like the horse that ran well for a long way in the Midlands National last season in two chase starts post-lockdown. He didn’t travel at Cheltenham then finished well behind Bobo Mac and The Two Amigos, let alone Secret Reprieve, in the trial at Cheltenham.
Joe Farrell does at least tend to put his best foot forward over marathon trips and never more so than in the Scottish National in 2018. He’s now back to that mark, although is off 2lbs higher here, and has a lot more to prove to than plenty of others to get involved here on recent form, a distant third in the Midlands National the best he has mustered of late.
Didero Vallis and Alminar will both be out the handicap assuming Yala Enki runs. Alminar can be discounted immediately as he is already 15lbs wrong, and faces a seemingly insurmountable task to make that up, trading as he is at triple figures on the exchanges.
Didero Vallis went off favourite for the Grand Sefton but has rather loitered in the low to mid-130s over the last couple of years running at mostly under 3 miles and not winning in two years. It would be a major surprise to see him put that right on Saturday.
To summarise, Vieux Lion Rouge and Cloudy Glen are the two selections at 20/1 (1/5 odds and 5 places each way, antepost terms) or slightly higher on the exchange. I’d back Cloudy Glen now antepost as he’s seeing support, but with final declarations just two days away it may pay to wait and confirm Vieux Lion Rouge actually runs as he’s weak enough on the exchange as it stands (34 as I write). Good luck!