In-depth Pertemps Preview

The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle is unique at the Cheltenham festival in that its contestants have qualified in designated races. This creates a conundrum in itself: those that qualify most readily are likely to have shown their hand to the handicapper and will have less scope off their mark at Cheltenham. 

Marks given today are shown below, along with the differences for Irish horses with their Irish marks.

Horse	Cheltenham	Diff
Third Wind	153
Unowhatimeanharry	151
The Bosses Oscar	151	-8
Honest Vic	150
Brinkley	148
Dandy Mag	148	-6
Imperial Alcazar	147
Ask Dillon	144
Copperhead	143
Agrapart	142
Keeper Hill	142
Spiritofthegames	141
Storm Arising	140
Champagne Platinum	139
Southfield Harvest	138
First Lord De Cuet	137
No Comment	137
Anything Will Do	137	-4
Getaround	135
Jacamar	135
Come On Teddy	134
Flemcara	134
Redford Road	134
Lynwood Gold	134	-4
Mrs Milner	134	-5
Perfect Man	133
Bushypark	132
Illegal Model	131
Potters Hedger	131
Storm Goddess	131
Farrants Way	130
Poker Play	128
Gabbys Cross	127	-6
Dalton Highway	127	-6
Everglow	126
Kansas City Chief	126
Mr Harp	126
Milliner	126	-3
Tedham	125

 

The last 5 years have seen exactly half the Irish runners in Pertemps Finals finishing in the first five, as shown below.

	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	Total
Irish in top 5	4	4	2	3	2	15
Irish total runners	8	6	5	5	6	30

 

This is fairly extraordinary, considering they come from only two qualifiers (unless they’ve crossed the Irish Sea to qualify), compared to 14 in the UK (13 this year with the abandonment of Huntingdon at the end of January). Blame it on skulduggery or whatever, but the fact remains that British horses, on the whole, seem to have far less scope to improve than their Irish counterparts, who are therefore a good place to start.

The shortest priced of those is The Bosses Oscar, who has been lumped with an additional 8lbs from the UK handicapper, meaning he now runs off 151, 13lbs higher than his last run at Christmas when he didn’t even win. There’s a small chance he’s drastically improved since then, but I’m not willing to find out at 7/1, particularly with the uncertainty of Gordon Elliott’s runners and a potential move out the yard.

Keeping with the Irish, because there aren’t many, the next down the weights off 148 is Dandy Mag, The Bosses Oscar’s conqueror at Christmas. He won well enough there and went up 8lbs for it, but couldn’t follow up at Leopardstown in February and has been lumped with an extra 6lbs by the British handicapper. He is now 16lbs above that Leopardstown run and it’s difficult seeing him having the class to defy this mark.

Anything Will Do is the third highest rated Irish horse entered and he has run promisingly to come 5^th in a couple of big field handicaps after an aborted chasing campaign. With a relatively light 4lb hike from the British handicapper, he will run off 137, and there are many worse each way bets out there at 40/1 NRNB.

I put up Lynwood Gold after Robbie Power deftly manoeuvred him into 6^th in the Punchestown qualifier on Monday and would do again here but he’s been smashed into a best price 12/1 today following the release of the weights. He’s lightly raced and will sneak in towards the bottom of the weights off 134 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go off at single figures. The same owner and trainer combined to see Not Many Left come third in this two years ago and it would be no surprise to see them go a couple of places better this time.

Mrs Milner completes the list of Irish horses likely to get in (Gabbys Cross, Dalton Highway and Milliner are also entered and qualified but need at least 8 to come out to get a run) and brings both Irish and Cheltenham form to the table. She qualified by coming fourth at Christmas behind Dandy Mag and The Bosses Oscar after running On The Blind Side to a neck at Cheltenham in November. He has since gone up 8lbs and was trading at around 10/1 before it became apparent he wasn’t going to qualify and she will be turning up off 134, just 5lbs higher. She’ll prefer the likely better ground than she’s run on the last twice and the only downside appears to be her fall at Dublin Racing Festival last month. She rates a live contender and 33/1 massively underestimates her.

So what about the British? The odds would say that Imperial Alcazar has the best chance at 7s off 147 and it’s hard not to be impressed by the way he powered away to win the usually-informative Warwick qualifier. However, he brings the concern mentioned above that he may well have shown his hand already, with an 8lb hike following that win.

Champagne Platinum is one the shrewdies will have been watching and he was given tender enough handling to finish second behind Bushypark at Haydock last month. Having said that, he’s yet to deliver on the promise he showed over his first two hurdles starts in 2018 and hasn’t got his head in front since then. The suspicion remains he doesn’t much like winning and you could do without that in a 7/1 poke.

Brinkley is next in the betting at about 12/1 and although he beat a competitive enough field at Exeter last time, it was on almost unraceable ground (much like his win at the same venue the time before), and you wonder how much more scope he has to improve on better ground after going up 18lbs for those two wins.

Come On Teddy was a convincing winner at Cheltenham two starts ago and was favourite to follow up in the race won by Imperial Alcazar but was always in behind before staying on into a well-beaten third. He may not have got third without an ill-fated pile up at the last and although he may prefer the sterner test presented by Cheltenham’s hill and I wouldn’t explicitly put you off him, the value has slightly gone today and he is now only 16/1.

Looking at the remainder likely to get it, Third Wind tops the weights and won the Rendlesham in good style, but in the process looks to have blown his mark. There’s a chance he could replicate placing last year, but I don’t know whether this remains the target or if he’ll now be aimed higher.

Southfield Harvest has been the name on a few people’s lips for a while and his unexposed profile has looked appealing but he’s gone up 8lbs in two starts without winning, the last time in slightly disappointing fashion, and has yet to show in public that he’s at his mark, let alone well ahead of it.

The other Nicholls horse in the race, Storm Arising, is arguably more interesting, having been green on his penultimate start to be worn down by Portrush Ted and then improving to win comfortably enough (idling a tad) at Chepstow. He was raised only 5lbs, later reduced to 4 due to weak collateral form. His previous runs suggest he enjoys softer ground so he may be one to look at on the day if the heavens open.

Ask Dillon was behind Storm Arising at Chepstow and has performed admirably all season without winning. He’s crept up the handicap as a result and wouldn’t appear to have much scope to outrun his mark of 144, but equally shouldn’t be too far off the premises.

Honest Vic is another to have shortened today but can still be found at 33/1 NRNB. He won the Cheltenham qualifier back in October off 141 and wasn’t disgraced in graded company at Newbury next time out. Only seen in a jumpers bumper since then, he’s extremely progressive and has probably been saved in the hope of better ground, but a mark of 150 is a different kettle of fish and his Newbury run (where he was well backed) suggests it may be about right.

Spiritofthegames ran over hurdles for the first time in three years in the final UK qualifier and ran well enough, hurdling fluently and just being held off by a well handicapped youngster. If this option is taken up (he holds several entries elsewhere over hurdles and fences), he has some scope off his mark of 141 (5lbs below his chase mark) to put in a strong performance when fully wound up, for all he’s another that doesn’t seem that keen on winning.

No Comment has been sent off at 12/1 or lower at four festivals on the trot and his ownership by JP McManus may explain that. However, he slightly threw away one of the weaker qualifiers at Hereford in December and fell on his only start since, neither of which gives much cause for optimism here.

Bushypark isn’t certain to get in but did his chances no harm by battering a decent field at Haydock. He’s up 12lbs off the back of that but, having won off just 83 earlier in the season, isn’t sure to have reached his ceiling yet. For all that, he comes up against a different level of competition here.

Getaround requires a mention as he has the talent to figure here off 135. He’s been inconsistent during his short career and bled last time, which certainly isn’t ideal, but at least provides an excuse for disappointing when sent off favourite off the same mark. He may go off a big price due to unfashionable connections and could be worth a play at 40/1+.

First Lord De Cuet had been hovering around the mid-120s until winning in the mud at Wincanton last month and would need another jolt of improvement and similar conditions to get involved here. His price of 50/1 is big enough but largely deserved.

Redford Road looked like a promising novice last season but has regressed since then, including over fences. He may improve for his one run since then, but on balance looks like he might struggle in this company.

Jacamar is the last of the horses that have some kind of chance in my book and was tenacious in seeing off Southfield Harvest at Wincanton over Christmas. They will reoppose on the same terms and he would be dangerous to discount entirely, despite being on a career high mark after as many as 17 starts over hurdles.

There seems to be no reason to desert the Irish here, and Mrs Milner looks a huge price at the moment along with, to a lesser extent, Anything Will Do. Honest Vic, Storm Arising, Spiritofthegames and Getaround look the best value out of the British challenge but are either ground dependent or will be big enough prices to wait on for extra places on the day.