In-depth Welsh National Preview

The Welsh National is one of very few races to have its weights released and fixed (apart from a 4lb penalty for winners) over a month in advance of the race. This makes it both unique and intriguing from a betting perspective, as horses have time to run in the month preceding the race without drastically changing the weight they carry.

There are, as it happens, several prep races falling in this period that generally provide a good starting point when looking at horses that have evidenced superior (or inferior) ability to the weight allotted to them. The Becher Chase, Welsh National Trial, London National and the most recent Cross Country at Cheltenham all came under this bracket and contained contenders for this year’s event. The table below shows the entries after the confirmation stage, sorted by how well or badly weighted they are, along with best price as per Oddschecker and their relative weightings were Native River to not run.

Horse	Odds (Fractional)	Adjusted Allotted Rating*	Official Rating	lbs in hand	lbs in hand w/o NR
Deise Aba	14	140	142	2	2
Hill Sixteen	20	140	142	2	10
Secret Reprieve	5	140	140	0	0
Iwilldoit	12	140	140	0	6
Mighty Thunder	16	150	150	0	0
Ramses De Teillee	20	146	146	0	0
Mac Tottie	40	142	142	0	0
Highland Hunter	7	149	148	-1	-1
Potters Corner	16	140	138	-2	6
Elegant Escape	20	156	154	-2	-2
Discordantly^	25	140	138	-2	-2
Achille	33	141	139	-2	-2
Truckers Lodge	25	150	147	-3	-3
Kimberlite Candy	33	150	147	-3	-3
Fortescue	50	140	137	-3	-2
Native River	16	166	162	-4	n/a
The Galloping Bear	33	140	136	-4	0
The Mighty Don	50	140	136	-4	-1
Eva's Oskar	33	140	135	-5	-1
Colorado Doc	20	140	135	-5	3
Hold That Taught	8	140	135	-6	1
Eclair Surf	33	140	133	-7	-1
Captain Drake	33	140	132	-8	0
St Barts	40	140	132	-8	-2
Via Dolorosa	50	140	130	-10	0
The Big Dog^	7	147	136	-11	-11
Abaya Du Mathan	100	140	118	-22	-12
Game Line	100	140	117	-23	-13
El Paso Wood	100	140	115	-25	-15
Django	100	140	112	-28	-18

* The rating allotted to each horse when the weights were released at the end of November, adjusted for penalties of 4lbs for winning in the meantime and adjusted for those likely to be out the handicap (carrying 10st when their rating implies they should be carrying less), assuming Native River remains top weight on 166.

^ Irish horses, whose ratings are generally lower than an equivalent British horse. The Big Dog has no current Irish mark so the mark he ran (and won) off last season is provided here.

The Welsh National is just as unique a punting test as it was twelve months ago when Secret Reprieve conquered all with 8lbs in hand. However, no contender this year has anything near that much in hand due to a new fly in the ointment in the sizeable form of Native River, whose presence means that any horse rated below 140 will be running from out of the handicap. Connections of Native River have indicated their preference to run on the basis Chepstow is likely to see a fair amount of rain between now and the 27^th. The horse himself is worth a go in the same race he won all of five years ago, but he’s a not so spritely 11-going-on-12-year-old now, carries 11lbs more and is 4lbs wrong after a spirited but ultimately thankless task trying to keep tabs with Protektorat in the Many Clouds Chase. At 20/1, I wouldn’t put you off an each way bet from the heart, but I sense that’s all it will be from a win point of view.

Were anything to sway connections’ minds prior to the 27^th, the table above would need recalibrating in a big way (shown by the righthand column) and a trio of performers who, as it stands, are more or less as you were in terms of being well or badly in, would be chucked in, allowed as they are to run off their originally assigned weights. Chief of these is Hill Sixteen, who is 2lbs well in anyway, having been raised a full 10lbs after almost collaring Snow Leopardess in the Becher from 4lbs out the handicap. His failure means he escapes a penalty so would be 10lbs well in were it not for Native River. He travelled well in the Becher and stayed on resolutely, both prerequisites for Welsh National winners. He also had good form before losing his way last year, so don’t doubt he’d go off near enough favourite without Native River. However, he’s weak enough on the exchanges and is not guaranteed to get in at 24 on the list, both of which may be linked and are enough to put me off for now, even at 20s. Any strengthening and he should be backed though at that price or bigger.

Iwilldoit looks more certain to turn up and will be running off his mark, despite being 6lbs wrong on allotted weight, because he is essentially 6lbs well in (after a 4lb penalty) on his allotted weight after his facile win in the Welsh National Trial earlier this month. I was tempted to put him up all the way back then given what happened to Secret Reprieve’s price after doing something similar last year, but Native River’s presence just about put me off at 12/1. It will do again for now, but note that free-going front runners have a decent record in this race (e.g. The Two Amigos, who sadly doesn’t make it this year after his trainer forgot to enter him).

The other to be substantially well in if Native River defects is Potters Corner, who would be 6lbs to the good, but as it stands remains 2lbs to the bad. It’s certainly not prohibitive, given the fact he won this race two years ago off 5lbs higher and his performance in the most recent Cheltenham Cross Country when just being touched off shows there’s still ability in the 11-year-old. But that was off 135 and he’s short enough at 16s all things considered. He also may not get in at 25 on the list.

One more major beneficiary of any hypothetical Native River absence is Eva’s Oskar, who is currently 5lbs wrong as it stands, but would be 3lbs well in were he not to turn up. Unexposed over fences and posting a decent performance behind the upwardly mobile Corach Rambler last time at Cheltenham, he’s 3/4 over obstacles at Chepstow (the one defeat on debut at 150/1) and could offer some value at 33s if the top horse doesn’t run.

This year we should get some Irish representation, which adds a dimension that was lacking twelve months ago. The Big Dog doesn’t have a current Irish chase mark, but I’ve used the one he last ran off in Ireland when winning the Irish Grand National Trial in the knowledge it would have gone up since then. That’s decent form, and it would have had him well in with Screaming Colours were he to have been confirmed, but he was tailed off on his reappearance in a conditions race and then well down the field over hurdles last time out, so is left alone at 7s off 147.

Discordantly is the other Irish confirmation and has no real form off anywhere near this kind of mark, pulled up in the Irish National then a well held sixth in the Troytown on return. Best left alone at 25s.

None of the other three favourites at the top of the betting take my fancy. Secret Reprieve is a laughable price given he was the same this time last year off 6lbs lower with a convincing Welsh National Trial win under his belt. This year he has to do it off no prep, which Evan Williams has admitted isn’t ideal. Not for me at all at 5s.

Hold That Taught is 6lbs wrong if Native River doesn’t run and is presumably priced up as a lightly raced Venetia Williams-trained horse, but will need to race off 12lbs higher than the mark he won off at Carlisle last time and I’m not sure that or any previous form justifies that hike, especially at a paltry 8/1.

Highland Hunter is 1lb wrong after taking a penalty and not winning by enough to offset it in the London National three weeks ago. He travelled well that day and marathon trips seem to have unlocked an extra few pounds of potential, but he’s going to have to be a mid-150 horse to win of 149 and I’m not sure he’s quite that at 7/1.

At almost double the price is Deise Aba, who is 2lbs well in after being beaten on the nod by Highland Hunter in the London National and crucially avoiding a penalty. The result is that Deise Aba is now 4lbs better off relatively with the Nicholls horse and there’s every reason to think he’ll do as well or better at Chepstow (despite bombing out in the trial last year) after adjusting left at most of his fences at Sandown. He’s a bit hit and miss, but appears to have strung two runs together for the first time in a while to start this season and stayed on dourly at Sandown having looked under the cosh before a few others. All in all, he merits a few quid each way at 14s.

Mighty Thunder was a big improver last year, but seems to have got on a roll and 150 could be his ceiling. He appeared to appreciate better ground at the end of last season and Lucinda Russell has made no secret that the Grand National is his ultimate target this time around.

Ramses De Teillee feels like he should be eighteen but is still only nine. He came a good second in this race three years ago as a 6-year-old off 144 and is now just 2lbs higher. I’ve never been convinced he’s the most resolute stayer over these extreme trips and he hasn’t shown much in the way of form since beating Yala Enki at Cheltenham last November, but he’s not the most forlorn place chance.

Mac Tottie jumped for fun in the Grand Sefton but came a cropper in the Becher over the same fences. He’s 7lbs higher and will be off his highest mark by some way on his twelfth start over larger obstacles.

Elegant Escape kicked his season off in very peculiar fashion with a pipe opener at two miles over hurdles, where he was understandably well beaten at 66/1. That was his first start since turning up in the Gold Cup nearly two years ago after coming sixth in this as the 9/4 favourite and third in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) off 160. However, it remains to be seen whether his ability remains, even off a reduced mark of 156 (officially 2lbs wrong).

Achille is another 2lbs wrong, although one whose chances I much prefer. Seemingly Venetia Williams’ second string after Hold That Taught, he put together a string of seconds last season which culminated in him just being touched off by Lord Du Mesnil in the Grand National Trial. He subsequently finished sixth in the Midlands National in what turned into a sprint and will much prefer a slog in the mud here after a warm up over the National fences in the Becher where he briefly threatened before a lack of match practice told. He looks an each way play at 33/1 all told.

Truckers Lodge is also 2lbs wrong and was a game second in this two years ago, but seemingly won by too far on his next start in the mud at the Midlands National and didn’t threaten last year across three starts in the low 150s or on his first outing of this season and looks one to catch when he’s dropped a little further down the weights.

Kimberlite Candy is another that might need some help from the handicapper before troubling the scoresheet again and finds himself 3lbs wrong following a mediocre run in the Becher.

Fortescue isn’t quite as forlorn a hope as his 50/1 odds suggest, based on the fact his plugging on Ladbrokes Trophy run indicated he wants five miles. He is 3lbs wrong though and I struggle to see him travelling well enough to win this.

The Galloping Bear is 4lbs wrong but that doesn’t mean a huge amount based on his unusual profile. He’s come from points and hunter chases via a novice hurdle where he fell last time out. He has an excellent strike rate and it remains to be seen where his limit lies, but I’d only warn that a mark of 140 tends to find out even the best pointing graduates. One to keep an eye on the market for and might be worth a win only dabble if huge prices come available.

The Mighty Don, another who’s 4lbs wrong, has to be one of the more frustrating horses. He possesses a fair amount of ability but seems to throw in plenty of jumping errors and travel badly enough to not be worth the risk, even off 136 and at 50s.

Colorado Doc is the last I’ll cover on the basis the rest will struggle to get in or be at least 7lbs wrong, which really shouldn’t give them a chance of winning. He’s 5lbs wrong, which certainly doesn’t help, but he was eased down heavily in the Welsh National Trial when beaten 24 lengths into second by Iwilldoit. He was 2 lengths behind at the last giving the winner 5lbs, so probably doesn’t have too much to find (now both running off 140), but the fact he’s 20s means I’d only be interested if Native River doesn’t turn up.

To summarise, the race hinges on Native River’s participation. If he runs, there aren’t too many who can win, and I’ve already backed Deise Aba and Achille at small stakes as two who could go close. If he doesn’t run, I’ll probably be cashing those out and going for a couple of whoever gets in of Hill Sixteen, Eva’s Oskar, Potters Corner, Iwilldoit and Colorado Doc (in that order of preference at current odds).