We’re now at that stage in the National Hunt season where all roads lead to Cheltenham. Talk escalates of the races horses are heading to and antepost markets become subject to rumours rather than performances on the track.
Bookmaker prices are largely based on exchanges. In normal markets, following the exchange and adding or subtracting a point or two will leave them with satisfactory books and overrounds. However, when there is limited liquidity, as is the case in some Cheltenham antepost markets, they can struggle to get a handle on the “market price”. The exchange can play tricks and indicate where there is value to be had.
Never more so than this year, punters will feel they’ve missed the boat on the numerous “bankers” running in March, making the search for value feel ever so slightly pointless. The below table (an updated version of the one tweeted earlier) can steer people towards the races that can still be exploited.
Race | Back % | Lay % |
Champion Chase | 0.5 | 15.3 |
Mares Hurdle | 1.4 | 37.4 |
Arkle | 2.5 | 9.1 |
Gold Cup | 3.2 | 10.0 |
Champion Hurdle | 5.0 | 3.0 |
Marsh | 6.2 | 29.8 |
Ryanair | 6.8 | 31.2 |
Foxhunters | 8.8 | 50.5 |
Cross Country | 9.2 | 35.2 |
Mares Chase | 9.8 | 41.4 |
Stayers Hurdle | 12.6 | 11.3 |
Bumper | 15.2 | 32.2 |
Supreme | 18.1 | 26.0 |
Albert Bartlett | 18.1 | 50.2 |
Brown Advisory | 18.3 | 28.6 |
Triumph | 18.8 | 20.4 |
Ballymore | 24.3 | 26.7 |
Mares Novice Hurdle | 32.1 | 56.8 |
NH Chase | 44.1 | 45.5 |
A note on reading the table. Back % is the overround for all prices available to back on the Betfair exchange. Conversely, Lay % is the negative overround (or “underround”) of all prices available to lay on the exchange. A lower "back" overround means there's less margin going to waste (i.e. the prices across the board offer better value to the backer).
Generally, the lower the two percentages (back and lay), the more liquid the market and the more liquid the market, the less volatile it is. This is why the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup, two of the principle races at which horse have been aimed all season and attract the most attention, have the lowest percentages. These overrounds are constantly in flux so the actual figures may change, but they are unlikely to vary too much over the next couple of days.
The two races that grab the attention by having low overrounds are the Champion Chase and Mares’ Hurdle, both of which have in fact seen negative overrounds in the last 24 hours. This is not unexpected for the Champion Chase as one of the more liquid markets. Chacun Pour Soi is the clear favourite but has had issues with fragility in the past, meaning backers are less likely to pump their hard-earned into him like they would a more robust horse (he is 2.3 on Betfair but a best price of 10/11 with the bookies). This has not been compensated with other horses being backed, presumably because on current form lines, they’ll struggle to beat him.
As such, unless you want to back Chacun Pour Soi and risk him picking up an injury over the next month or back another in the belief that he will, there’s limited value to be had. Politologue is probably worth a bet if you can get him matched at 15+, but that’s about it on the win-only exchange as it doesn’t translate to the much larger bookmaker overrounds.
The Mares’ Hurdle is another kettle of fish. Benie Des Dieux has been drifting over the last couple of days both here and in the Mares’ Chase, her other most likely engagement, suggesting she may miss the festival altogether. That would open the race up from an each way perspective. Concertista is the likely favourite and Roksana would surely also run here rather than the Stayers if Benie Des Dieux doesn’t turn up, but they're skinny enough at 6/4 and 5/1 NRNB with her absence unconfirmed.
At bigger prices are two festival winners from last season. Dame De Compagnie is 16/1 antepost or 14/1 NRNB, both of which seem long, particularly with Henderson pinpointing this as her target in his most recent Unibet blog. She won the Coral Cup off 140 last season with enough in hand to suggest she’s a 150+ hurdler over this trip. My guess is that would be good enough to place in this renewal and she’d go off a similar price even with Benie Des Dieux and Roksana both running, and much shorter if they don’t.
The other one at 33/1 antepost or 25/1 NRNB is Indefatigable, who ate the hill last year in snatching the Martin Pipe off 145. She’s had a flat run and two spins around Kempton recently, all of which were mediocre at best, but she has far better form around galloping left handed tracks like Cheltenham so they’re best ignored. Like Dame De Compagnie, her Martin Pipe performance was 150+ and she’d have a good chance of placing here.
There’s very little among the remainder of the entries that would provide much danger. Honeysuckle is heading to the Champion Hurdle and next to nothing would reverse that decision. Black Tears would be of interest but her weakness on the exchange suggests a Coral Cup return might be the plan. Great White Shark has very average form over obstacles compared to her exploits on the flat. Minella Melody ran poorly at the festival last year and has twice been soundly beaten by Concertista this season.
Floressa may come into the equation on genuine good ground, but that’s unlikely on the Tuesday of the festival and she’s yet to race over the 2m4f trip. Egantine Du Seuil runs tomorrow at Warwick but would need to improve on her efforts this season (and last) to figure. The only curveball would be if Paul’s Saga is supplemented off the back of her run tomorrow in the same race, but that seems unlikely with the Stayers on the agenda.
While uncertainty still reigns around Benie Des Dieux’s participation and its impact on Roksana and Concertista’s winning chances, it’s best to avoid them unless doing linked mares NRNB doubles (e.g. Benie in the hurdle and Elimay in the chase, Benie in the chase and Concertista/Roksana in the hurdle). But Dame De Compagnie and Indefatigable seem good value each way shouts in a race that is sure to cut up and may be deprived of the very top calibre mares heading elsewhere.