Friday, March 10, 2023

Cheltenham Wednesday

Ballymore: Hermes Allen 3s, Champ Kiely 8s

Bit of a weird one this for me, as I’ve backed Gaelic Warrior and Impaire Et Passe at bigger prices but don’t really like them at where they are now. Hermes Allen is now backable having drifted given the ease with which he’s swatted aside some decent British yardsticks. People seem to be giving him stick based on the performances of stablemates Stage Star and Bravemansgame the last two years but he’s a bit more forward than they were and his win at Cheltenham earlier this season was very impressive. Champ Kiely will probably be Mullins’ third choice, but has form up there with the best of them and should get the services of Danny Mullins again who gave him a canny front-running ride last time.

 

Brown Advisory: Thunder Rock 14s

Gerri Colombe was definitely value at 3s a few weeks back, but now that’s gone he could be vulnerable at 7/4. Sir Gerhard could be good enough but you’re taking a leap of faith at a skinny enough price and he could just as well bomb out or even defect to the Turners on Thursday if the heavens do open. The Real Whacker ran a very good timefigure last time but that may have been a fluke given his lack of back class. Thyme Hill was a very good hurdler but may not have the scope to tackle Cheltenham’s fences. All of which leads me to thinking Thunder Rock is quite a good bet. He jumped poorly behind The Real Whacker and couldn’t quite get into the race behind Gerri Colombe on his last two runs, but there’s every reason to think the extra distance could see him in a good light. Expect The Real Whacker to set a good gallop, so having him sitting off the pace could serve him well. He’s only 14s now but might drift a bit if the top few get some support and is worth a play even if just for interest. Be a bit wary of the ground though as he probably wouldn’t want it too soft.

 

Coral Cup: Benson 20s, Langer Dan 10s

Bit of a lottery this race and one you’ve got to see final declarations to properly sort out, but a couple that take my eye include Benson, who I have a bit of soft for as he’s a reformed nutter (see the closing stages of his run at Sandown in February 2020 or Ascot in December 2020 to find out why). Reformed he is now though and has been rejuvenated by a move to Scotland to land the Morebattle last weekend. He was put up 5lbs (which cancels out his 5lb penalty), which I thought was a tad generous and he could have more up his sleeve (certainly has the ability) at this longer trip. In the absence of a better shout, Langer Dan is an obvious enough pick (win only) given his propensity to come good in the spring after some quiet “sighters” earlier in the season. Unlucky the last couple of years, he’s capable of putting that right off this mark and seems versatile with regard to ground unlike the equally well treated Camprond.

 

Champion Chase: Greaneteen 33s

Potentially the race of the meeting in terms of competitiveness, I’ve made a case for most of these horses at the prices. Edwardstone just shades it for me from Energumene based on their last runs, while Editeur Du Gite is a few points behind, because despite beating these last time, the race went perfectly for him and he’ll have competition for the lead this time. That’ll be in the shape of Gentleman De Mee, who’d be a live player on properly good ground but the forecast makes that look unlikely. The top 4 are therefore all about the right price. Nube Negra is probably a shade below top class, which leaves Greaneteen, who is perfectly capable of mixing it with these off the back of multiple pieces of form but is the price he is due to a below par effort last time and a slightly below par effort the time before. 33s doesn’t do him justice based on his three Group 1 wins at Sandown (the most recent of which came off a shocker of a run in Leopardstown), Haldon Gold Cup win in November or close fourth in this 2 years ago.

 

Cross country: Francky Du Berlais 50s, Diesel D’Aillier 33s

Take your pick here between Galvin and Delta Work. It sounds like the market will flip flop based on whoever gets their ground (Galvin wants good, Delta wants soft) and I’d almost be inclined to back whoever doesn’t on that basis as they each have form on all types of ground. After them though there’s not a lot and I think Francky Du Berlais is in with a shout of placing at a monster price. He came out pretty well at the weights in the only prep race at Cheltenham this season, more or less on a par with the likes of Back On The Lash and Snow Leopardess who are far shorter. It was his first try over these fences and he could well improve for the experience so he’s worth a play at small stakes each way. Diesel D’Allier can be forgiven his first run back in the aforementioned prep race and 6s isn’t a bad bet to finish in the first 3 (Sky Bet), but I’d probably only back him if the ground stays good.

 

Grand Annual: Shakem Up’Arry 25s, Sizing Pottsie 33s

I’ve already backed Rouge Vif here but his form doesn’t warrant his price now, particularly with a bit of rain forecast, and he may not get in anyway. Shakem Up’Arry travelled like the winner last time out at Cheltenham in a hot handicap and would race off the same mark here over a shorter trip. The only question mark is whether he tackles this race or the Plate, which might depend on the weather, but he definitely won’t be 25s on soft ground so take the price now NRNB. Sizing Pottsie should run and has tumbled down the handicap off a few below par runs that the UK handicapper now seems to treat very generously. That leaves him off a mark of 140, but he was capable of winning a Grade 2 a year ago and David Pipe is shrewd enough to have had this as the plan all season. The forecast rain on Wednesday should suit him nicely.

 

Champion Bumper: Better Days Ahead 12s, King Of Kingsfield 33s

No firm convictions here but I’m going to do almost the exact opposite of the famous maxim “Willie’s in the bumper” and go for “Gordon’s” instead. Mullins doesn’t seem to have a standout this year and the fact that the first he namechecks when asked about bumper horses is Chapeau De Soleil, beaten on his only start, suggests that none of them are of the same calibre we’ve seen him produce over the last few years. The horse that beat him that day in a traditionally strong Fairyhouse bumper was Better Days Ahead, and he’s both a bigger price and in receipt of rave reviews out of the Elliott stable. At a much juicier price, King Of Kingsfield was well beaten last time but there are reports he was all wrong and while Elliott might name Better Days Ahead his best horse, King Of Kingsfield is said to be his quickest. You need a bit of speed in the Champion Bumper both for position and for quickening off the final bend and he might get a few others in trouble if he’s up to the hype.