In-depth Boodles Preview

A week ago this market was extremely interesting, with all the better horses at the top of the market and less good horses at the bottom, almost as if the bookies had decided en masse that it was no longer a handicap. But then Cabot Cliffs and Zoffanien hacked up in their respective engagements at the weekend and once weights were out, prices were in freefall.

I’m not going to tell you the market is awash with value because it’s not – you only have to look at the implied Betfair Exchange overround of 91.5% to realise that. But it’s still worth having a couple in mind on the off chance they drift on the day, just like last year’s winner Aramax, who had been in single figures for over a month and went out to 16 on the exchange before being smashed back in just before the off.

Marks given yesterday are shown below, along with the differences for Irish horses with their Irish marks. The exception to this is Balko Saint, who received a 5lb penalty yesterday and runs off 134, as below, rather than his allotted 129.

Horse	UK Rating	Ire rating	Cheltenham	Diff	Penalty
Zanahiyr	0	145	149	-4
Quilixios	0	144	147	-3
Teahupoo	0	138	141	-3
Nassalam	141	0	141
Youmdor	0	0	141
Baladin De Mesc	0	0	141
Saint Sam	0	136	139	-3
Cabot Cliffs	137	0	137
Busselton	0	133	135	-2
Druid's Altar	0	133	135	-2
Riviere D'Etel	0	134	134	0
Paros	134	0	134
Balko Saint	129	0	134		5
Longclaw	0	130	132	-2
Hell Red	131	0	131
Historic Heart	131	0	131
Glorious Zoff	0	0	131
Zoffanien	0	129	130	-1
Soldier On Parade	128	0	128
Houx Gris	128	0	128
Coltor	0	125	127	-2
Her Indoors	127	0	127
Sage Advice	127	0	127
Honneur D'Ajonc	126	0	126
Tinnahalla	126	0	126
Homme Public	125	0	125
Burgundy Man	125	0	125
Jeff Kidder	0	118	125	-7
Elham Valley	124	0	124
Son Of Red	124	0	124
Curious Bride	0	116	123	-7
Crassus	0	121	122	-1
Can't Stop Now	122	0	122
Scholastic	0	117	121	-4
Le Magnifique	121	0	121
Marta Des Mottes	120	0	120
Pyramid Place	120	0	120
Sideshift	0	112	115	-3
The Worthy Brat	115	0	115
Mr Shady	114	0	114

 

I put up 5-year SP data last week, but here it is again for this race as it’s important to know when is and isn’t a good time to have a bet.

	<6/1	6/1 - 10/1	11/1 - 15/1	<16/1	Runners
2016	0	5	3	8	22
2017	1	3	6	10	22
2018	0	5	4	9	22
2019	1	3	5	9	21
2020	2	3	3	8	22
5 year average	0.8	3.8	4.2	8.8	21.8
2021 (current)	0	4	3	7

This suggests you’ll get around 9 horses at under 16/1 on the day. While there are 12 currently at those prices on Oddschecker, it’s slightly unfair as it’s only William Hill still operating under antepost terms and several of these are destined for the Triumph.

Of these, Zanahiyr is the only certainty, but there seems to be nothing stopping Quilixios lining up against him now he’ll be competing from a different yard. Gary Moore has always viewed Nassalam as a Triumph horse too, despite meeting defeat on his last two runs, so we can probably expect him to miss this as well. Teahupoo won well last week and he’s another who deserves a shot at the Triumph but he’s only lukewarm in either market at the moment.

My view is that the Irish have been let in quite leniently here with the majority receiving 2 or 3lb rises, compared to an across-the-board 4 last year. They may have Glorious Zoff to thank for that, who ran out a convincing winner ahead of Crassus at Sligo last Autumn before looking mediocre in a couple runs in Britain since. His mark of 131 is a complete guess from the handicapper, but he won back on the flat last time and if he runs and the ground is decent, might be worth a win only bet at 16s on the basis that he could be anything. Crassus has some tidy handicap form but looks unlikely to get in unfortunately.

Youmdor may end up top weight here if the exchange is anything to go by and looked to have Teahupoo’s measure before falling at the last when they met in January. He since ran well below expectations at Leopardstown, possibly feeling the effects of the fall, and may bounce back here, but would struggle to turn around form with Busselton and Saint Sam, giving 6 and 2lbs respectively.

Saint Sam has been well found in the market and there’s been a lot of talk about him needing a strongly run race and/or cover, but 6/1 isn’t anything to get excited about for a horse yet to get his head in front for Willie Mullins and yet still near enough top weight. There’s also now a chance he’s diverted to the Triumph after the defection of French Aseel.

I much prefer the chances of Busselton, whose form ties in with that of Saint Sam, having finished ahead of him in a slowly run race and behind him in strongly run race. Crucially, he’ll be in receipt of 4lbs this time which might make the difference, while Joseph O’Brien has yet to hit form this season and there looks to be more scope for improvement on that front than the Mullins yard that’s been firing in winners all year. 10/1 certainly isn’t a bite-your-hand-off price (he’s not much bigger on the exchange) and he’ll be one I’ll wait on to drift out to about 14s, which could well happen if the other market leaders remain so strong.

Another one at a crazy price now is Houx Gris at 6/1. He comes with some reputation from France and was probably value off a lowly 128 when he was 20/1 last week but I wouldn’t get involved at this price with only a heavy defeat to Nassalam and Adagio to his name in the UK, for all Nicholls has a great record in the race.

Houx Gris’ French form ties in very closely with Homme Public, who got the better of him once in a bumper before being narrowly bested on their respective first runs over obstacles. While Houx Gris went to Nicholls, Homme Public was shipped to Oliver Greenall and this might be the reasoning behind his price at 28/1 despite competing off 3lbs lower. He ran reasonably behind Olly Murphy’s Tinnahalla on his first start in the UK, before improving on that to win comfortably next time out. He holds a Triumph entry, which suggests he’s held in high regard and should not be underestimated off 125.

Tinnahalla beat Homme Public at Catterick but had the benefit of a run under his belt already. He should be competitive off 126 but looked to improve for the heavy ground which is unlikely to materialise at Cheltenham. 20/1 looks fair, but nothing more.

On his trouncing of Tinnahalla in isolation, Sage Advice would appear to be well in off 127, but he’s been beaten twice at short odds since and doesn’t look to be improving. That said, a return to better ground may suit and he shouldn’t be ruled out entirely at 20s.

This is partly because the first of those defeats was behind Cabot Cliffs, who bolted up next time and now reopposes Sage Advice on 10lb worse terms. The suspicion is he’s blown his mark, particularly as his 17-length success came at Warwick where the Skeltons have a particularly good record. He’s not certain to repeat that at Cheltenham, let alone improve further from it. 12/1 is unappealing.

Another whose form was boosted by Cabot Cliffs is Balko Saint and I was very keen on him before his run at Wincanton on Wednesday due to his performance at Cheltenham (admittedly the New Course) in November. Unfortunately, he had almost the worst result possible at Wincanton, prevailing by just a neck to earn himself a 5lb penalty and a slashing in the betting. Ironically, if he’d been beaten a head he would’ve avoided the penalty and may still be available at bigger prices, but I’m happy to leave him as it is.

That Cheltenham race involving Balko Saint and Cabot Cliffs also involved Nicholls’ Hell Red, who is evidently well thought of given the reviews he got from a recent stable tour and the fact he has been sent off at short odds in his three British starts. However, he looks an awkward ride, has shown nothing in his last two runs and I’m not going to back one in the Boodles on hype alone.

Historic Heart is a typically hardy Nigel Hawke juvenile with 7 runs under his belt already (2 at Cheltenham), which should stand him in good stead for a race such as this. Despite this and the fact the appears to still be (slowly) improving, he doesn’t have the scope of some others to make the big leap required to win here and can be left alone off 131.

As far as the rest of the British go, Her Indoors stepped up markedly on her first two British starts last time out at Doncaster, but looks high enough off 127 given that one piece of evidence and the fact she won’t be making use of her mares’ allowance here. As well as he does with juveniles, Alan King has a poor record in this race and 20s doesn’t scream value.

Honneur D’Ajonc looked poised to give a race (and probably a beating) to Nicky Henderson’s Heross Du Seuil at Kempton over Christmas and finish well ahead of Her Indoors before falling at the final hurdle. He came last of the 9 Adonis runners and it’s very difficult to fancy him after that, even off a lowish mark of 126.

Soldier On Parade finished one place ahead of Honneur D’Ajonc in the Adonis, but that still only left him 8^th, a second poor run in a row after an impressive win at Market Rasen back in September. One poor run isn’t a good sign, two is unforgivable when looking for the winner of this race.

Paros is Nicky Henderson’s sole representative in the field and is rated 134 solely on his French run – his two British runs would see him about 20lbs below that. As much as he might be better for a fierce pace, this represents a huge step up.

Burgundy Man has been given a mark of 125 based on his French form as he’s yet to run for Venetia Williams. What that form amounts to I have no idea, but I suspect he can be passed over on the basis that French form on its own is often judged very harshly by the British handicapper (see Paul’s Saga’s obscene rating of 168).

The same can probably be said for Baladin De Mesc, whose French form is better, but hardly enough to put him on a mark of 141 alongside Teahupoo, Nassalam and Youmdor.

Moving on to the rest of the Irish, Riviere D’Etel is the only Irish horse in this race to have been left alone on her mark for this race, 134. She looked very good on her Irish debut when winning by 12 lengths, but the form of that race is poor and she was only third on her most recent start. Thedevilscoachman, the winner that day, is well fancied off 145 at Cheltenham, but the second was beaten off just 124 in Ireland last week and on that basis Riviere D’Etel is less appealing.

Longclaw was moved to John McConnell from the Elliott yard prior to the last week’s news, but boasts no real form worthy of his mark of 132, fourth behind Duffle Coat last time out after three victories in weak races prior to that.

Zoffanien hacked up in a handicap off 119 a couple of days before the weights came out and was raised 10lbs by the Irish handicapper. His British counterpart added just 1lb on top of that and there’s every reason to think he can carry on improving, it’s just a shame his price has collapsed in the meantime.

The time before he ran Druid’s Altar close in receipt of 5lbs and there’s likely to be little between the two again with the same weight differential. The Joseph O’Brien was highly tried in some of the top races prior to his encounter with Zoffanien and he’s probably below the form of the likes of Busselton (also 135) based on his performances in those races.

Coltor has probably been backed in over the last few days due to his win over Zoffanien at the end of January (and now being in receipt of 3lbs), but the rest of the form in that race hasn’t really worked out and it looks like Zoffanien has improved rather than it being a particularly hot race.

Jeff Kidder has been given 125, a whopping 7lbs above his Irish mark and he’s yet to justify it in four runs over hurdles. Even his win on his penultimate start doesn’t appear to be anything special on paper.

One final horse to note, on the off chance he wins this afternoon and gains a penalty that would put him on 126, is Le Magnifique. Despite disappointing last time, his win over Gold Desert and Glorious Zoff may make a mark of 126 look attractive if he can win decisively today.

As mentioned before, there are plenty of handicaps with more value than this one, but I’m covering it now on the basis its runners are slightly clearer. Two of the few that still look value are Homme Public and Glorious Zoff, while Busselton should probably be favourite based on his runs in graded company and would be great value if he were to lengthen a couple of points.