This post is designed to pinpoint a handful of races (generally, but not exclusively, handicaps) on Friday and at the weekend, taking advantage of two-day declarations to identify early prices that are patently wrong. Backing horses, when you drill down to the nuts and bolts of it, is all about variables. Trip, ground, track configuration, trainer form, time of year, jumping, freshness, field size, sectionals – the list goes on – are all tallied against weight (and by extension rating) and price.
This weekend we have the added bonus of knowing that it’s
going to be testing going at Haydock and Ascot – no need to wait on weather
forecasts to be substantiated or not.
FRIDAY
Mack The Man may prove too good in the Novices’ Handicap
Chase (13.55, Ascot, Friday), but Flegmatik is a big enough price (a
general 7/1) to have a bet on. Horses are generally unlucky to be hampered once
in a race, let alone twice, as happened to this Dan Skelton inmate at Sandown
last time. There he went off a 9/4 shot and this looks no more competitive off
the same mark, so the price differential is questionable if you draw a line
through that last run. He jumps a bit right, which is not ideal at Sandown due to
the lack of running rail after the last couple of fences, but poses fewer
problems here at Ascot. He’s back to an extended two miles, a trip over which
he excelled on his first outing of the season. The only issue may be the
ground, but he coped with it reasonably on his last start over hurdles.
Soaring Glory is being smashed in as I write and this
may reach you too late, but 4/1 about a horse that has been best at the weights
in all his starts bar one is a bit of a steal. He beat the hugely impressive
Bravemansgame first time out over hurdles, was beaten by Supreme third
favourite Dusart when giving 6lbs and then would have won when falling last
time out. He also gets weight from the market leader Llandubno Lad here leaving
the main danger in my book as My Drogo, but the substance of his last win is
questionable due to proximity of 200/1 shot Sagazza in second.
I toyed with including the Noel Novices’ Chase (15.05,
Ascot, Friday), but Allart’s price has probably just moved away from ‘patently
wrong’ at 3.85 on the exchange* at the time of writing. Fiddlerontheroof remains
overrated, although these are the sort of conditions that may see him at his
best, Pic D’Orhy needs goodish ground and Bold Plan carries a penalty.
SATURDAY
Enrichissant won a handicap by miles off 11lbs lower
on his last start at Huntingdon before COVID halted racing. On three starts
this season he has held his form, but the key difference this time out may be a
return to heavy ground. He floated through the mud that day at the end of last
season and could be underestimated in the 2 mile 2 furlong handicap chase
(13.50, Ascot, Saturday) at a general 16/1 (bigger on the exchange) against a
field that is mostly more exposed.
Arrivederci has already been nibbled at in the Betfair Exchange Trophy (15.35, Ascot, Saturday) but 10/1 is more than fair for a horse 2lbs higher than when he looked ominous in a hot race at Haydock last month. The way he travelled that day suggests two furlongs shorter will be right up his street. On top of that, the second and third from his win on seasonal debut have since come out and won, including War Lord in the Haydock race with a 3lb swing. Above Arrivederci in the market are two horses that have received hefty rises for recent wins (Buzz and Benson). This horse will relish the soft ground and rates a serious proposition – it wouldn’t surprise me to see him challenge Buzz for favouritism on the day.
Night Edition (same race) is one to watch in the market on the day. If there's a whiff of money for him he's worth a poke at 20/1 given his lenient 2lb rise for a one length second in the Fred Winter/Boodles on soft ground.
Alternatively (I'd never go with three in the same race!), if firms start going bonkers with extra places, I couldn't put you off Cormier. Currently the outsider of 17 at 50/1, he's likely to remain a big price, despite being 3lbs lower than in the Greatwood where he was poised to finish a couple of places better than his eventual seventh but for a mistake at the last on soft, heavy in places.
* By exchange, I generally mean Betfair, but take care in laying off stakes that you've put on using any Flutter brand (e.g. Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Sky Bet) as I've seen correlation between that behaviour and account restrictions. Alternative providers include Smarkets, which generally has enough liquidity for weekend races, although you may have to wait a bit for it on some of these early price bets.