CHASERS (125-Rated plus)
Risers (3lb+):
|
Name |
08/12/2020 |
15/12/2020 |
Change |
|
SKY PIRATE
(GB) |
134 |
144 |
10 |
|
EVANDER
(IRE) |
123 |
132 |
9 |
|
EARTH MOOR
(IRE) |
132 |
140 |
8 |
|
DUC DE
GRISSAY (FR) |
118 |
126 |
8 |
|
MISTER
FISHER (IRE) |
155 |
162 |
7 |
|
ROCKY'S
TREASURE (IRE) |
138 |
145 |
7 |
|
MALYSTIC
(GB) |
140 |
147 |
7 |
|
STORM
CONTROL (IRE) |
136 |
142 |
6 |
|
DEFI DES
CARRES (FR) |
121 |
127 |
6 |
|
VADO FORTE
(FR) |
128 |
133 |
5 |
|
HAPPYGOLUCKY
(IRE) |
142 |
147 |
5 |
|
HURRICANE
HARVEY (GB) |
139 |
144 |
5 |
|
NORTHOFTHEWALL
(IRE) |
135 |
140 |
5 |
|
DANS LE
VENT (FR) |
128 |
132 |
4 |
|
LIBERTY
BELLA (GB) |
125 |
129 |
4 |
|
GIVE ME A
COPPER (IRE) |
146 |
149 |
3 |
|
IBLEO (FR) |
137 |
140 |
3 |
|
ARIAN
(IRE) |
126 |
129 |
3 |
|
MR
CLARKSON (IRE) |
128 |
131 |
3 |
|
ZAMBELLA
(FR) |
139 |
142 |
3 |
|
MASTER
WORK (FR) |
123 |
126 |
3 |
Where to start but with Sky Pirate? The perennial
bridesmaid got his day in the sun at Cheltenham over 2 miles for the first
time. Ridden confidently towards the back, he never came off the bridle to hose
up by 4 lengths. The visuals merited a 10lb hike and he may be value for it while
still unexposed over the minimum trip, but my suspicion is he has to win on the
bridle and there wasn’t much left. Nonetheless a big field 2 mile target such
as the Grand Annual would be of interest if it comes up soft but he’d have to
be a 150+ horse to cope with the Irish battalions, some of whom will have been
lolloping around mudbaths all winter in preparation for the Festival (looking
at you, Le Richebourg). Ibleo from the same race may now be in the grip
of the handicapper.
Earth Moor could be decent, but his inconsistency means
the jury is out now off 140. Either way, his win paid a handsome compliment to weekend
winner Happygolucky, who I suspect would be outstayed in the mooted National
Hunt Chase at the Festival, but may go well in something like the Ultima off
147 as a strong traveller that gets 3 miles.
Unless he can pull off Frodon-like powers of carrying
weight, Mister Fisher has surely now said goodbye to handicaps. He may
snatch a place in a Grade 1 on rattling quick ground but I fancy he's found his
niche in small-field Grade 2s for the time being, an able replacement at Seven
Barrows for Top Notch who appears on the way out (or badly needed the run).
Storm Control had plenty left in the tank as he
almost pulled himself up at Cheltenham and 7lbs seems very fair. He’s probably
the type of horse who won’t sustain this form forever so don’t be surprised to see him
out again early in the New Year as connections try strike again while the iron
is hot.
Vado Forte beat a good yardstick Defi Sacre into third at Doncaster as well as the talented Solar Impulse who was clearly on a going
day. He won with plenty in hand and 5lbs is unlikely to stop him next time if
in the same mood.
3 to follow: Storm Control, Happygolucky, Vado Forte
Non-movers* (-2lbs to +2lbs):
|
Name |
08/12/2020 |
15/12/2020 |
Change |
|
MIDNIGHT
SHADOW (GB) |
148 |
149 |
1 |
|
BENATAR
(IRE) |
142 |
142 |
0 |
|
POTTERS
LEGEND (GB) |
135 |
135 |
0 |
|
DEFI SACRE
(FR) |
129 |
128 |
-1 |
|
CEPAGE
(FR) |
155 |
154 |
-1 |
*
Selected horses
Despite the Caspian Caviar not looking as strong as the
Paddy Power Gold Cup on paper, I’ve gone and picked three from it for this
section because the race was somewhat blown apart by Chatham Street Lad. Midnight
Shadow was best of the rest by a good 12 lengths and if the winner hadn’t
journeyed over from Ireland may be looking at a 10lb hike rather than just the
1lb. He’s always threatened to make up into a graded performer and could make a
mockery of a mark in the 140s at some point.
Benatar ran brilliantly off a massive layoff and looks
to have retained most of his ability. He paid the price for his keenness (which
has always been there but was surely augmented by the break) and lack of
fitness. A drop in trip may be the answer anyway and 142 is likely to underestimate
him, the bounce factor notwithstanding.
Cepage couldn’t raise a gallop (or a jump) which
was rather surprising given his strength in the market. However, it was too bad
to be true and he’s now on the mark of his last win, which came on New Year’s
Day last season. Plenty more mileage there if you’re willing to forgive this
aberration.
Potters Legend stays on 135, despite splitting the
winner who looks on a hot streak and Court Maid who was well in. There must be
more to come and soon, even with his advancing years, with plenty of staying
chases to choose from in the New Year.
I thought Defi Sacre would have to be beaten by a
well in horse at the weekend and there’s a chance he was still feeling the
effects of a run (and fall) two weeks prior. He’s been dropped a pound now, so assuming
he’s freshened up and ready to go next time, still looks ahead of the
handicapper.
3 to follow: Midnight Shadow, Cepage, Potters Legend
Fallers (3lbs-):
|
Name |
08/12/2020 |
15/12/2020 |
Change |
|
DOCTOR DEX
(IRE) |
135 |
130 |
-5 |
|
GINO TRAIL
(IRE) |
147 |
142 |
-5 |
|
MILITARIAN
(GB) |
138 |
133 |
-5 |
|
QUEL
DESTIN (FR) |
152 |
147 |
-5 |
|
TOP NOTCH
(FR) |
158 |
154 |
-4 |
|
CANYON
CITY (GB) |
136 |
132 |
-4 |
|
PALMERS
HILL (IRE) |
137 |
133 |
-4 |
|
THEATRE
LEGEND (GB) |
131 |
128 |
-3 |
|
VIVAS (FR) |
130 |
127 |
-3 |
|
FLOW AWAY
(IRE) |
131 |
128 |
-3 |
|
BOB MAHLER
(IRE) |
140 |
137 |
-3 |
|
BORN
SURVIVOR (IRE) |
145 |
142 |
-3 |
|
DRUMCONNOR
LAD (IRE) |
145 |
142 |
-3 |
|
HOLD THE
NOTE (IRE) |
143 |
140 |
-3 |
|
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
(GB) |
137 |
134 |
-3 |
|
STEELY
ADDITION (IRE) |
140 |
137 |
-3 |
|
KILBRICKEN
STORM (IRE) |
135 |
132 |
-3 |
|
STORMY
IRELAND (FR) |
145 |
142 |
-3 |
|
UMBRIGADO
(IRE) |
142 |
139 |
-3 |
Palmers Hill has dropped by a massive 4lbs despite going off favourite and could well have needed the run lugging over 12
stone around Taunton. He’s now on the mark he was a close second off at
Kempton in February in a typically hot handicap and, given he’s built like a
brick shithouse, should find fences more to his liking than hurdles in time.
Hold The Note ran well for a long way at Cheltenham
and patently didn’t get home over and extended 3 miles. He’s been dropped a
further 3lbs and is now 5lbs below the mark he was a good third off at the
Festival with two handicap snips in front of him. Plenty of mileage off 140
dropped back to 2 miles 4 furlongs.
A three-runner novice chase isn’t where Umbrigado is
best seen to effect, judging by his Haydock effort over hurdles off 139. Back
to that mark he could be a force to be reckoned with in a novices handicap
chase.
3 to follow: Palmers Hill, Hold The Note, Umbrigado
HURDLERS (125-rated plus)
Risers (3lb+):
|
Name |
08/12/2020 |
15/12/2020 |
Change |
|
HISTORIC
HEART (IRE) |
118 |
131 |
13 |
|
MIDNIGHTREFLECTION
(GB) |
121 |
130 |
9 |
|
WILD MAX
(GER) |
138 |
147 |
9 |
|
LORD OF
KERAK (GB) |
122 |
131 |
9 |
|
MOUNT
WINDSOR (IRE) |
119 |
127 |
8 |
|
COME ON
TEDDY (IRE) |
127 |
134 |
7 |
|
BREFFNIBOY
(FR) |
122 |
128 |
6 |
|
NEWTOWN
BOY (IRE) |
122 |
128 |
6 |
|
THE WHITE
MOUSE (IRE) |
130 |
136 |
6 |
|
ADAGIO
(GER) |
130 |
136 |
6 |
|
MONMIRAL
(FR) |
137 |
143 |
6 |
|
MINELLA
DRAMA (IRE) |
129 |
134 |
5 |
|
DANS LE
VENT (FR) |
128 |
132 |
4 |
|
GET OUT
THE GATE (IRE) |
124 |
128 |
4 |
|
EGLANTINE
DU SEUIL (FR) |
143 |
146 |
3 |
|
NO COMMENT
(GB) |
135 |
138 |
3 |
A few juveniles to look at here and I generally find it
difficult to consider their marks until the Boodles/Fred Winter. Nigel Hawke
thinks otherwise and has already run Historic Heart in open handicaps,
but my initial reaction is that this was a weakish race. Time will tell.
Up north, Monmiral won the Summit doing handstands
despite a sizeable mistake at the second-last. For me, it was the most
substantial British performance so far (make of the Nassalam efforts what you
will), although Gordon Elliott would appear to have at least a couple of
behemoths in this division already across the Irish Sea.
Come On Teddy looked the winner the whole way round
at Cheltenham in what seemed to be a hot 3 mile handicap and a 7lb may underestimate
him.
The following afternoon The White Mouse overcame the
bounce factor to score and could feasibly make it a three timer off 136. She’s
only been beaten once when staying up over hurdles so there’s a good chance we haven’t
seen her ceiling just yet.
3 to follow: Monmiral, Come On Teddy, The White Mouse
Non-movers* (-2lbs to +2lbs):
|
Name |
08/12/2020 |
15/12/2020 |
Change |
|
HAAFAPIECE
(GB) |
130 |
132 |
2 |
|
MOHAAYED
(GB) |
141 |
141 |
0 |
|
SUMMERVILLE
BOY (IRE) |
156 |
155 |
-1 |
|
CLEMENCIA
(IRE) |
132 |
131 |
-1 |
*
Selected horses
Haafapiece was leading and looked to have
every chance when coming down and assuming he’s none the worse (best wishes
with Gina Andrews who sustained some nasty injuries in the fall), should be
able to make amends at some point off 2lbs higher. Clemencia was a ludicrous
price (80/1) for the same race and stayed on nicely into fourth to bag each way
backers a bigger return than the winner. If he steps up a few furlongs off one
pound lower I’d be very keen to have him onside in a weaker race or at what is
likely to be a big price.
Mohaayed stayed on nicely into third in the race won
by Come On Teddy. He looks to have found a new metier over 3 miles and with his
love of big field handicaps, don’t be surprised to see him attempt to gain a
place in the Pertemps back at Cheltenham in March.
Only two starts ago Summerville Boy was winning a hot
listed race at Aintree and since then he’s been beaten into fourth and fifth
over 3 and 2 miles respectively. Neither are his trip – 2 and a half is perfect
now – and even if Tom George opts to take on the Relkeel, I wonder if the Coral
Cup might be of interest, a race in which those high in the weights tend to do
nicely and his stamina would be seen to the fore.
3 to follow: Haafapiece, Mohaayed, Summerville Boy
Newbies* (new entries):
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
|
ANY NEWS
(IRE) |
142 |
|
MAKE ME A
BELIEVER (IRE) |
137 |
|
NASSALAM
(FR) |
140 |
*
Selected horses
Make Me A Believer beat Any News one length at
Cheltenham in receipt of 6lbs, so predictably he’s rated 5lbs lower. But most, including
me, would be backing the former if they were to reoppose in handicap company
and not just because he’s trained by a Pipe. That win screamed strongly run 2
mile handicap and, fortunately, there are plenty to choose from off 137.
Nassalam turned another low-key juvenile event into a
procession and 140 is nothing but a stab in the dark by the handicapper. Not
that it matters – he’ll be keeping to juvenile company for now, either
following the Goshen route to the Triumph or taking in the Finale at Chepstow on the way.