As always, my antepost book has seen some ups and downs, ranging from the good/fortunate (Blue Lord, Bravemansgame) to the bad/unfortunate (Hubrisko, Next Destination, Ferny Hollow in a handful of multiples). However, now is a good time, wedged as we are between key trials at Cheltenham and Leopardstown and with a mix of antepost and NRNB operators, to take a look at the markets again and see which horses are plainly the wrong price.
I’ve mostly ignored the fiercely competitive races and split
bets into three categories:
- Antepost: bets with bookmakers/the exchange on standard antepost terms, unless the NRNB price doesn’t differ greatly.
- NRNB: as above, but with the “non runner no bet” concession for those that might not turn up.
- Exchange nibblers: those at bigger prices that might not turn up but are worth chancing a few quid at on the exchange as their prices are ludicrously big.
Antepost
Mares Hurdle: Stormy Ireland (9.0, 7/1)
There seems to be an obsession with Telmesomethinggirl in this race that I can’t quite get my head around (4.4, 7/2), given she’s run three times without coming close to winning since her victory in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle last season. Admittedly, she was giving weight the last twice and was probably the best horse at the weights in her last outing, form of which was franked by Royal Kahala’s subsequent defeat of Klassical Dream in the Galmoy Hurdle. But I have a hard time believing Henry de Bromhead will be in as good form as he was here last festival and she has a full 8lbs to find with Stormy Ireland on Irish ratings (142 vs 150). In fact they all do, as (bar Honeysuckle) no Irish mare is within 6lbs of the Willie Mullins inmate, who won at Cheltenham (admittedly the New Course) on New Year’s Day. I was expecting that to catapult her to the head of this market, but she still seems underappreciated at 9.0 on the exchange. The two I fear most, for once, are actually across the Irish Sea in Britain, in the shape of Martello Sky (20.0, 12/1 NRNB) and Indefatigable (21.0, 16/1, 14/1 NRNB). Indefatigable is rated 147 and Martello Sky 144, and their form ties in with each other (MS beating Indefatigable narrowly in receipt of weight) and a couple of Irish-trained mares. However, both are weak on the exchange (without being that long) and each way prices are slim enough at the moment. We may see better value on the day when the Irish pile into their home-trained fancies.
National Hunt Chase: Run Wild Fred (4.7, 7/2, 10/3 NRNB)
Touching on being too short not to put in an acca, but Run
Wild Fred is streets ahead of his opposition (largely Stattler in the
market) on ratings, experience and most other metrics (apart from maybe hype).
Stattler could only finish fourth in a weak Albert Bartlett last season and
followed that up with a third at Punchestown. He’s two from two over fences,
appearing to stay on well last time to beat Farouk D’Alene. However, I fancy
the latter was a bit unfortunate to end up a sitting duck after jumping the
last three poorly. It may be that Stattler is able to pounce a la Galvin last
season, but I think Run Wild Fred could be holding his own in open 3m Grade 1s
this season. He’s rated 159, which is a monstrous pre-festival rating for a
novice, and seemed to come undone last time when banking one down the back,
still preforming similarly to Stattler in comparison with Vanillier last time.
Run Wild Fred generally jumps soundly, will have the best jock in the business
on board in Jamie Codd and will be ridden to get the trip after running so well
in the Irish National over even further last season. The British are streets
below what is needed here with the possible exception of Threeunderthrufive,
but even he’ll struggle against true Grade 1 Irish opposition.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase: Beacon Edge (23.0, 16/1, 14/1
NRNB)
I’m not going to lie – I was all ready to put up Fury Road
here, but his price seems to have crashed from 16.5 down to single figures, so I’ve
taken a chance on another in the Gigginstown colours, Beacon Edge. These
two have actually come up against each other on four of Beacon Edge’s last five
starts and he has a 3-0 edge (they were both non-completions at Punchestown
last year), although he was in receipt of weight on the first occasion last
season. This suggests they’re close enough on form, and I’d marginally rank
Fury Road higher given his improvement in blinkers last time over 3m, but
Beacon Edge stayed on well to win the Drinmore last time and a career best over
hurdles in the Stayers Hurdle last year shows he can both handle Cheltenham and
mix it with the best in class terms. At three times the price (on the exchange
at least), he gets the nod here.
But what of the others, you might say? Just the small matter
of the imperious-looking Galopin Des Champs and so-far foot-perfect
Bravemansgame, neither of which have so much as made a semblance of an error to
date over fences. They have both wowed due to their exuberance over a fence,
and while that looks good, this race has historically gone to strong staying
grinders (see Champ, Don Poli, Bob’s Worth and (nearly) Santini). The added
issue is that Galopin Des Champs could easily go for the Turners, which is
likely to come down to how he goes at the DRF, and this race is ripe for one of
the more unsung battlers to scoop. One added bonus is that Beacon Edge is
entered nowhere else at Cheltenham (please not the Irish National), so, touch
wood, he should turn up (factor that in when considering the bigger exchange
price vs NRNB).
Champion Chase: Chacun Pour Soi (11.5, 12/1, 8/1 NRNB)
Just typing out the prices there was slightly alarming, as Chacun
Pour Soi is a lot shorter generally NRNB than antepost, but he’s strong
enough on the exchange and Bet365 just seem to be standout for some reason. We
all enjoyed Shishkin vs Energumene, a genuine “I was there” moment, but I was
also at Cyrname vs Altior and the rivalry we expected to continue died a rather
sudden death as their respective form dropped off. Two miles is a different
test and is less likely to have taken much out of either, but Chacun Pour Soi
has run time figures similar to those two and should certainly not be
underestimated. So he didn’t run to form at Cheltenham last year when a red hot
favourite for this race and suspicions that he might just not like travelling
reared their head when he performed woefully (again odds on) in the Tingle
Creek, but aside from that he has shown sheer star quality, brushing every
horse in Ireland aside on his own turf (apart from A Plus Tard a couple of
years back when reportedly not fully fit).
One of the issues he faced last year was not getting a tow
long enough, meaning he’d hit the front on the bridle and looked lost up the
hill. This year, owing to superior opponents, he’ll be kept interested for
longer, and I can’t help but remember how he smashed up Nube Negra and Allaho
last season at Punchestown. Obviously he has his work cut out versus the top
two in the market, but 12s is big enough to put that to the test.
Stayers Hurdle: Paisley Park (10.5, 7/1)
This is mostly an exchange focus given the price
discrepancy, but I can’t believe Paisley Park is double figures given
his performance last Saturday. At this stage, it seems to be a five-horse race,
but all have their frailties so there could be room for another to sneak into
the picture at a big price (see below). Paisley Park’s frailty is obvious – he
may be a bit of a refusenik again. However, I think with a bigger field, Aiden
Coleman can get him surrounded by other horses, and he’ll be even more ready
for any quirks this time. Aside from that, he’s just put up possibly the best
performance of his career in sheer running terms, and looks just as good as
when sweeping all before him in 2019 and the start of 2020. If he does that
again, there are few who can stop him.
Klassical Dream is potentially the most likely, but was poor
last time and may need longer to get over his exertions. Flooring Porter could
take all the beating, but he shouldn’t get as easy a lead this time around and shouldn’t
get near Paisley Park at either of their best. Of the British, Champ and Thyme
Hill are both likely to run their race and potentially improve on their last
outings, but as Champ showed on Saturday, they have several pounds to catch up.
And yet all four are shorter in the betting. 10/1 is huge for a horse that just
has to reproduce his last performance (without botching the start) to get
mighty close.
County Hurdle: Saint Felicien (20/1, 14/1 NRNB)
My first and only bet in the handicaps to date isn’t the
most original and has been doing the rounds on Twitter, but that is precisely
why Saint Felicien’s price surprises me. He’s been entered in the
Scottish County Hurdle (which he surely won’t run in) to get a mark of 146,
which is very unlikely to be changed before March, and should give a clue to
his likely destination. The British conversion of an Irish mark is one of the
main things holding me back from getting stuck into the handicaps until the
last week of February but that appears sorted in this case. On form alone that mark
seems more than fair, splitting the 145-rated Whiskey Sour giving a couple of
pounds and the 155-rated Darasso in receipt of 5lbs. Those are Irish ratings,
so he already looks well in even before considering that this is a British mark
and there is potential improvement to come after just two runs over hurdles in
Ireland (following one in France). The fact he was sent off odds on in the
Limestone Lad suggests Elliot thinks a lot of him and everything points to him
being his number one for this race. I’ve taken a mix of NRNB and antepost on
the off chance they think he’ll be more suited to a step up in trip.
Gold Cup: Tornado Flyer (15.5, 14/1, 12/1 NRNB)
I toyed with putting Mount Ida up NRNB for this, but Elliot
appears to have shelved that plan as she now looks set for the Mares Chase and
20/1 isn’t really big enough anyway given what she’s actually achieved to date.
Tornado Flyer, on the other hand, the reigning King George winner no
less, is certainly a backable price in a winnable renewal. He stayed on into
second in the Ryanair last season behind the juggernaut that was Allaho and
really showed he wants a truly run test when streaking away with the King
George at Kempton on Boxing Day. The general consensus seems to be that that
was a bit of a fluke, but he would have won well regardless of Asterion
Forlonge falling at the last, and having him and Clan Des Obeaux, who swept all
before him in the latter part of last season, in behind seems to be top class
form. He’s relatively unexposed at 3m, with one prior run in a strange edition
of the Savills in 2020, when he got behind but didn’t disgrace himself to
finish fifth, and an extra couple of furlongs could even unlock further improvement.
A Plus Tard is the most likely winner, given his form this
year and second place last year, but his price rather reflects that. Galvin seems
to want or need a crawl as per the Savills at Christmas and National Hunt Chase
last year. It remains to be seen how he’d cope in a truly run Gold Cup, but
we’re by no means certain to get that with this year’s protagonists. Minella
Indo needs to show some signs of life to prove he’s got over last season’s
heroics, while Al Boum Photo might just be past it and Protektorat has it all
to prove given his Many Clouds Chase win looks rather suspect form. It’s an
open enough renewal and for the above reasons Tornado Flyer has as good a
chance as most.
Foxhunters Chase: Billaway (6/1, 9/2 NRNB)
Billaway can’t seem to catch a break in this race,
having finished second in the last two renewals. Last season’s was particularly
galling as he was done on the nod by Porlock Bay. He had a pipe opener this
year at Thurles behind Winged Leader, where Mullins said he’d need the run, and
appears to be taking a more circumspect path to Cheltenham this year, having
possibly peaked too early the last two years. Although anything could come out
the woodwork, this year’s race looks marginally more winnable and with another
year on his back Billaway might just see the trip out better.
NRNB
Turners Novice Chase: Pic D’Orhy (20/1 NRNB)
This is a fairly straightforward NRNB bet for me. Pic
D’Orhy turns up in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase this weekend against
L’Homme Presse, a general 8/1 shout for the Turners, as a superior horse by 1lb
(155 vs 154). He’s left behind a fairly inauspicious start to his chasing
career last season with two facile wins, latterly in a Grade 2, and looked like
doing likewise the time before when coming a cropper well clear. The NRNB angle
on this is Paul Nicholls’ aversion to sending any horse he trains to Cheltenham
that he doesn’t think will win. If L’Homme Presse proves superior this weekend
(as the market suggests), Nicholls will likely wait for Aintree (money back),
while if he does come out on top (as the ratings suggest), he could well be let
loose at a much shorter price. Given the fact he may be taking on Bob Olinger
and (possibly) Galopin Des Champs, each way is probably safest, but you’ll
likely get your money back if he runs poorly this weekend.
Stayers Hurdle: Song For Someone (33/1 NRNB)
He’s shortened a touch in the last week, which is surprising
considering he’s likely to run over 2m this weekend in the Contenders Hurdle at
Sandown, but Song For Someone has looked like 3m might eek out further
improvement ever since he laboured to a well beaten second to Goshen at
Wincanton last season. He’s come out firing this season, losing out to only two
upwardly mobile horses he was giving weight to, one of which, Buzz, was well
found in this market before injury intervened. In both of those races he stayed
on well and probably doesn’t have a huge amount to find with the principals on
ratings, provided he improves for the step up.
Mares Novice Hurdle: Mighty Blue (20/1 NRNB)
I think Brandy Love has the best chance of winning here,
given she won’t be carrying a penalty and the left-handed track should suit.
However, she’s been well backed since the weekend into about 9/2. Of the rest,
Statuaire is of interest but she could lengthen if thrown in against Sir
Gerhard and co this weekend so might be best watched for now. 14/1+ as long as
she isn’t completely outclassed would certainly be worth a second look, for all
she’ll carry a penalty following her Royal Bond win earlier in the season.
However, following on from doing similar with Concertista
two years ago, I’m keen to jump on one of the placed horses from last year at
20/1 NRNB. Mighty Blue hasn’t been seen this season and is unerringly
weak on the exchange, but has seen some blue on Oddschecker so is presumably in
training with something in mind. She is a 106-rated horse on the flat and would
have to have a chance based on her third behind Telmesomethinggirl in the same
contest last year if she were to turn up.
Triumph Hurdle: Pleasant Man (25/1 NRNB)
For every Zarkandar there’s a Zubayr or Solo, but if you
don’t buy a ticket, so they say. That’s the case with another Nicholls inmate
here, Pleasant Man, who was rated 95 on the flat and could take in the
Adonis en route to the Triumph. As is generally the case with Nicholls, this
looks like another that’ll only run if he’s good enough, which will either be
judged at home a la Pic D’Orhy or like one of the other aforementioned horses. His
potential opposition hasn’t blown me away as yet and there only appear to be
three standouts of them so there could be room for a late joiner to the
juvenile mix, even in an each way capacity.
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle: Bronn (33/1 NRNB)
Declarations have come in today for the Saturday of the DRF and Paul Townend has been jocked up on the twice raced (and as yet unbeaten) Bronn in the opener over 2m6f. This suggests he's Mullins' number one for this race and potentially (perhaps excluding The Nice Guy) their best staying novice hurdle hope. As it stands, he remains 33s NRNB for the Albert Bartlett, getting stronger by the minute on the exchange at about 42.0. I've taken NRNB for now as he's only raced over 2m to date, but a strong showing here could catapult him to the head of the market at Cheltenham (while a weak one might see them shelve the festival altogether or drop back down in trip). I wouldn't put you off the 6s floating about for the DRF race either, but I'm sweet enough on Grand Jury for that (see below).
Supreme Novice Hurdle: Broomfield Burg, First Street (both 33/1 NRNB)
Both go for the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday, a race which often unearths a Supreme fancy (if not always a winner). Get Me Out Of Here, My Tent Or Yours and Kalashnikov, who won the Betfair off 135, 149 and 142 respectively, all came second in the Supreme at 9/2, 15/8 and 4/1. Ballyandy, Al Dancer and Soaring Glory, who all won the Betfair off 135, 141 and 133 respectively, went off at 3/1, 9/2 and 10/1 in the Supreme. There's no denying that, whatever your rating, you're likely to be well fancied in the Supreme if you win the Betfair Hurdle, even if you might not go on to win it.
So to this year's candidates who are novices: Knappers Hill, I Like To Move It, Jetoile, Broomfield Burg, First Street and Jpr One. The first three have all been brushed aside by either of Constitution Hill or Jonbon this season, so we're unlikely to see decent odds for them at Cheltenham even if they were to prevail at the weekend and they may take their chance even if beaten. Jpr One is rated a lowly 130 and may also take his chance if beaten, as is Tizzard's wont in these sorts of races. But Broomfield Burg and First Street are both very interesting. As they come from Nicky Henderson's yard, he'll have a decent handle on what they're capable of versus his two novice stars, and is unlikely to run them if he doesn't think they have a chance. This is even more unlikely for Broomfield Burg given he's in the same ownership as Jonbon. He's 5/1 for the Betfair Hurdle, and, were he to win, must rank a contender, even amongst this year's stellar cast, on the basis that all the past six winners who have gone onto the Supreme have turned up at 10/1 or less. If you're a dreamer, it's also worth looking at a Broomfield Burg/Jonbon double at over 1000/1 in the Supreme and Ballymore on the off chance that JP McManus might like to split the two up.
First Street seems a sensible play, as he's not even entered for the Ballymore, even if you're more likely to get your money back (he's trading at about 16s for the Betfair Hurdle). He's rated 141, so winning this competitive heat would make him a genuine threat off something around 150, and he seemed to improve for the step down in trip off a decent pace last time out at Kempton when winning readily.
As always with NRNB, you might just be getting your money back, but there's serious upside for both at 33/1.
Exchange nibblers
Supreme Novice Hurdle: Fil Dor (280.0)
I tweeted about the possibility of one or other of Pied
Piper and Fil Dor turning up in the Supreme after the former hacked up
in the Triumph trial last Saturday. Both shortened substantially in the
aftermath and Gordon Elliot mentioned it as a possibility for Pied Piper, but
they have drifted back out since. It looks highly unlikely, but no one knows
what the weather and the Cullentra trainer’s mood will do and 280.0 is a
monster price that makes Fil Dor at least a 20/1 shot to turn up. For starters
he’s longer than Pied Piper (50.0), but he also seems to want some cut (more
likely on the Tuesday), while Pied Piper won over the Triumph course and
distance and Mighty Potter (a novice rather than a juvenile) has the option of
the Ballymore. As above, it’s a big price for him to turn up, but not beyond
the realm of possibility.
Ballymore Novice Hurdle: Grand Jury (50.0)
All the Novice Hurdles are riven with the uncertainty of
where hotpots will go, and while NRNB is a potential safe haven here, even the
bookies have run for cover, aware that any of them could end up being red hot
or surprisingly weak. The biggest candidate for the latter is the Ballymore,
with the potential that all of Sir Gerhard, Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill
and Jonbon could end up in the Supreme. There are similar uncertainties with
the Albert Bartlett, with Ginto potentially to join his stablemate Hollow
Games, while Gerri Colombe and Journey With Me might also go for the latter
(although will both be wary of goodish ground). This concern means that Journey
With Me may not even run this week at the DRF, with Grand Jury instead
chosen to take up the Grade 1 mantel for Robcour and de Bromhead. He travelled
sweetly in the Grade 1 at Naas just after New Year, quickening almost too well
to join Ginto at the head of affairs before being outbattled on soft ground.
That suggests to me he has enough pace for the Ballymore (although he is
shorter for the Albert Bartlett) and hopefully he can show that this weekend.
Although Hollow Games has been given copious excuses after defeat at Naas,
Grand Jury was also hampered at the last, and he seems underrated compared to
others in the same colours (Gerri Colombe and Journey With Me) that appear to
have achieved less.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase: Gaillard Du Mesnil (60.0)
I actually backed Gaillard Du Mesnil for this at 40/1
after his first outing of the season, on the basis that he’d probably need the
run (as per last season) and would appreciate the step up in trip. That he
didn’t appear to improve last time when brushed aside by Capodanno and Bob
Olinger was concerning, but he still looks crying out for further, his jumping
doesn’t seem to be the problem, and I can’t have that the horse that brushed
aside all but the mighty Bob Olinger last season is just not very good, as
seems to be implied by his price (and, more concerningly, Ruby Walsh’s and
Willie Mullins’ comments). See my arguments why this race may fall apart above,
but he could end up going there as Willie’s number two or even three, which is
never the worst thing in itself, but it means he’s not even involved in the
consideration of which horse to run where (i.e. he just goes in the most
suitable race). Given his hurdling exploits, he’s unlikely to be given a mark
to go down the handicap route, and while Willie may stick to the Turners as a
tried and tested distance, he won over 2m6f at the DRF last season so there’s
every reason to think he’ll go up in trip. I think 60.0 massively
underestimates his form from just three starts ago.