Irish Musselburgh Entries

A strange name for a post, you might think, and you'd be right, but unless I and many others on Twitter have become excessively cynical, this weekend's Musselburgh entries from Gordon Elliott (not to mention a couple from John McConnell and one each from Thomas Gibney and Johnny Levins) have an ulterior motive. The result is that punters (and the trainers themselves, of course) have a handy sighter of the marks they'll probably be dealt when the world stops and the Cheltenham handicap weights are released at the end of February.

The table below shows the 18 Irish horses entered at Musselburgh on Saturday along with the race type, Irish mark, UK mark and the difference between the two.

Horse	Entry	Irish	UK	Difference
Grand Roi	2m Hurdle	145	146	1
Wide Receiver	2m Hurdle	130	136	6
Anna Bunnina	2m Hurdle	129	135	6
Eskylane	2m Hurdle	133	135	2
Never Do Nothing	2m Hurdle	128	134	6
Riviere D'Etel	2m Hurdle	133	133	0
Glorious Zoff	2m Hurdle	n/a	131	n/a
Or Jaune De Somoza	2m Chase	133	134	1
Coko Beach	4m Chase	150	150	0
Some Neck	4m Chase	142	144	2
Run Wild Fred	4m Chase	140	140	0
Roaring Bull	4m Chase	139	140	1
Escaria Ten	4m Chase	n/a	140	n/a
The Bosses Oscar	3m Hurdle	143	151	8
Floueur	3m Hurdle	140	143	3
Torygraph	3m Hurdle	137	141	4
Folcano	3m Hurdle	n/a	132	n/a
Whirling Dervish	3m Hurdle	124	130	6

In any normal year, 2 or 3lbs would seem an average UK surcharge for Irish raiders, so anything less could be seen as being light. On the flipside, an 8lb rise is a hefty extra weight to be carrying, albeit it's likely there for a reason.

It seems Gordon wasn't completely taking the piss by at least entering his charges in races over distances that would suit them, so we'll go through each batch in turn looking at where they might end up at Cheltenham and whether their assigned mark is lenient, fair or harsh.

Grand Roi's mark looks fairly lenient with just the 1lb added. This follows what is probably a career best, beaten four and a half lengths giving 7lbs to Bachasson, who finished 6th in the Coral Cup last season off 148. That was just his 5th run over hurdles and he could improve on a faster surface as his only run with 'Good' in the going description was a 15 length win in a junior bumper when in the hands of Nicky Henderson. He's 20/1 for the County Hurdle, which seems very fair, or 10/1 NRNB, but 2 miles appears to be his trip.

Wide Receiver is an improving novice who got his head in front in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. He's been given 6lbs extra, probably as a result of the 'could be anything' factor, but Gordon won't be too miffed as that might just help him get into a Cheltenham handicap. His form behind Ashdale Bob over 2 miles 4 furlongs could be boosted if and when his conqueror takes his place in the 2 mile 6 furlong Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend. Having been a beaten favourite a couple of times twice already over hurdle, Wide Receiver's clearly one they think a lot of and his profile screams the Martin Pipe hurdle if 136 is sufficient to get him in. Keep an eye on form lines in the meantime, but at 7/1 as it stands he's a little bit skinny.

Eskylane came a good 5th in the Champion Bumper last season but has failed to reach those heights over hurdles, regressing from winning first time out to finishing 5th in Grade 3 and Grade 2 company the next twice. A 2lb rise puts him on 135, but you'd want to see signs of him delivering on his potential in the meantime, even at 33/1 for the Martin Pipe.

Anna Bunnina is also entered in the novice hurdle and Never Do Nothing is jocked up, so we can assume they were entered with the intention of running.

Elliott also has a couple of four-year-olds entered in Riviere D'Etel and Glorious Zoff with an obvious eye on the Boodles (formerly Fred Winter). Riviere D'Etel sauntered to a facile win but was a beaten favourite at the weekend, while Glorious Zoff has come over the UK a couple of times and was soundly beaten by Monmiral last time over hurdles. The Boodles is generally one to look at ratings in comparison with each other, so 133 and 131 don't mean too much until we see the ratings of other 4yos.

Or Jaune De Somoza has been given a 1lb hike over 2 miles on the basis he hasn't threatened to win for a while. You'd imagine they'll target the Grand Annual, but he wouldn't have got in last year's renewal and doesn't look the most progressive. He's not even priced up as it stands.

Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred came 1st and 2nd in the Thyestes last week and Escaria Ten was 2nd at Naas at the weekend, so it's unlikely we'll see them backing up again. More likely they've all been entered so Gordon can see whether he's training them for the Kim Muir or National Hunt Chase. Coko Beach wouldn't be eligible the Kim Muir off 150, so it's looking like the National Hunt Chase for him. Ratings-wise he's in with a shout, although you get the impression that it might be a warmer heat this year with Galvin, Dickie Diver and potentially Latest Exhibition and even Royale Pagaille waiting in the wings.

Escaria Ten has been dealt with extremely leniently with a first chase mark of 140. He blitzed a field in a beginners chase over Christmas and then split Eklat De Rire and Pencilfulloflead (in receipt of 8lbs from the latter) at Naas last weekend, form which you'd imagine would put him 5lbs higher on paper. It's no wonder he's 6/1 already for the Kim Muir and Jamie Codd might be licking his lips if amateurs get the go-ahead to ride between now and 18th March.

Run Wild Fred is second favourite in the Kim Muir market off 140, just 4lbs higher than the mark he came second off in the Thyestes and the same as his revised Irish mark. That also looks lenient for a horse that has suddenly found his stride over fences - remember he was given a whopping 149 by the UK handicapper for Cheltenham over hurdles last year and never went. On that basis, with Escaria coming down the field off 135 in the Martin Pipe last year, you might think that of the two 140s, Run Wild Fred's is even more lenient, but 10/1 is short enough antepost when he'd have other options like the Ultima and National Hunt Chase too.

Some Neck may well run and use this as a springboard for the Cross Country, for which you'd have to think he'd have a chance. There's talk of Easysland having had a few niggles and may not come over anyway due to COVID, while Tiger Roll is clearly not the same horse he was a couple of years back. Without those two, the race is wide open and Some Neck was clearly best at the weights in the most recent Cheltenham Cross Country trial. 25/1 is very fair each way, even with only 3 places, although it might be worth waiting on news of the top two before getting properly stuck in.

Roaring Bull didn't go to Cheltenham last year and his recent form is nothing to write home about so is best left alone for now.

Perhaps the most interesting of all of Elliott's entries is The Bosses Oscar in the Pertemps Qualifier on Sunday. He's been given a hefty 8lb rise in addition to the 5lbs he was given in Ireland for finishing 2nd in the Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier over Christmas. He's already qualified, and only 12 horses each season get to qualify in Ireland, so that is something, but he remains a best-priced 8/1 for Cheltenham. To me, there's no way he should be favourite, and it's slightly irritating there's nothing much better to back as it stands for that race. Maybe Storm Arising at 28/1, but all eyes on the Punchestown qualifier later this month. Get ready for a long old post after that.

Floueur gets an extra 3lbs and he may improve for 3 miles, but there's nothing especially progressive about his profile. Of more interest is Torygraph, who has the same connections and a similar profile to the 2018 Pertemps winner, Delta Work. He's won well the last twice over 3 miles and that makes him of definite interest off 141, but he isn't currently qualified for Cheltenham so may actually run at Musselburgh. If not, eyes peeled for him in the Punchestown qualifier and if he doesn't appear, he may just be deemed good enough to win a week enough Albert Bartlett.

Whirling Dervish is jocked up so probably runs and wouldn't get into the Cheltenham race unless he wins well here. The same goes for Folcano, who is very inexperienced and looks poorly in compared to the likes of Wide Receiver unless he can improve for the step up to 3 miles.

4 to keep onside (although they may not run this weekend): Grand Roi, Run Wild Fred, Some Neck, Torygraph