The Ultimate Grand National Preview

 For the first time we have a fair idea of the final field. You’d be pretty confident of everything down to Blaklion getting in and fairly surprised if anything lower than 142 got you a spot in the National.

The table below is presented to look differently, showing the runners in order of how well in they are versus their official marks, Irish or British. The Irish (starred) have generally been allocated an extra two or three pounds, so clearly anything Irish on -1 or higher is likely in good shape.

Horse	National	Diff
Cloth Cap	148	14
Lord du Mesnil	149	5
Bristol de Mai	167	2
Acapella Bourgeois*	155	2
Any Second Now*	152	2
Farclas*	146	2
Burrows Saint*	156	0
Mister Malarky	155	0
Kimberlite Candy	153	0
Ok Corral	151	0
Shattered Love*	150	0
Takingrisks	150	0
Class Conti*	149	0
Discorama*	149	0
Potters Corner	149	0
Minellacelebration	148	0
Vieux Lion Rouge	148	0
Canelo	147	0
Give Me A Copper	147	0
Ami Desbois	145	0
Double Shuffle	145	0
Fagan	142	0
Kauto Riko	142	0
The Storyteller*	165	-1
Yala Enki	160	-1
Ballyoptic	158	-1
Balko des Flos*	152	-1
Cabaret Queen*	148	-1
Minella Times*	146	-1
Deise Aba	142	-1
Valtor	142	-1
Chris's Dream*	164	-2
Definitly Red	158	-2
Lake View Lad	157	-2
The Long Mile*	147	-2
Secret Reprieve	144	-2
Some Neck*	144	-2
Golan Fortune	142	-2
Milan Native*	149	-3
Magic of Light*	156	-4
Tout Est Permis*	155	-4
Hogan's Height	146	-4
Sub Lieutenant	146	-4
Talkischeap	155	-5
Jett	150	-5
Anibale Fly*	155	-7
Alpha des Obeaux*	152	-7
Blaklion	145	-7

* Irish runners/marks

Starting from the top, it’s easy to see why Cloth Cap is not only favourite, but set to probably go off the shortest priced National horse this millennium, given how SPs tend to contract before the off to give the obscene overrounds we’ve seen the last few years. He has a whole stone in hand, according to official ratings, and given the visuals of his win in Kelso’s Premier Chase, it’s easy to see why. That said, there’s every reason to think that none of the other contenders that day ran their race – Aso and Two For Gold were backing up soon enough after their last run and Definitly Red and Lake View Lad would both have liked some more cut. He’s also unlikely to be able to dominate in a 40-runner field like he did against four rivals there and there’s a chance Aintree over-waters to comply with ‘elf and safety, meaning he might not be able to skip off the ground like he did in the Ladbroke (Hennessy) and at Kelso. The right favourite? Yes. Backable at 4/1? No.

Next in the list is Lord Du Mesnil, a good winner of the Grand National Trial at Haydock shortly after the weights were released. He’s a trier, will stay, will be prominent and although he won’t get the bog he revels in, looks extremely well weighted for a 40/1 shot (or 46.0 on the exchange). In fact, of all the horses well in, he’s the most likely to stay the 4 ¼ mile trip and looks a very solid each way bet.

Bristol De Mai has the honour of being 2lbs well in despite doing nothing since the weights were released, simply by virtue of being a very good horse in a condensed handicap. However, he’ll still have to defy top weight, won’t get the ground he craves and although he boasts a placed finish in a Gold Cup, his lofty rating is largely based on his prowess around Haydock, which this isn’t.

I can’t quite work out the price discrepancy between Acapella Bourgeois and Burrows Saint. Yes, the latter won an Irish Grand National way back in 2019 and appeared to shape well enough on his first run over fences in nearly 18 months in the Bobbyjo, but Acapella Bourgeois is 7lbs better off for a 7-length defeat in that Irish National, won comfortably last time out in the Bobbyjo for the second year in a row and appears to jump, stay and be comfortable on any ground. He might be 11, but that’s no bad thing in the National and I’d say he rates far more of a bet at 33/1 (42.0) than his more illustrious stablemate at 9/1 (12.0).

Any Second Now is third favourite at 10/1 (12.5) after his win last time out and while the fact that that was over an inadequate 2 miles suggests he might have even more in hand than his current 2lbs “plus Irish”, we’ve seen with Champ that a strong showing over 2 miles isn’t necessarily a precursor to a better performance up in trip. In fact, his best three performances since winning the 2019 Kim Muir off 143 have been over 2 miles (twice) and 2m5f. He’d have to be almost as unique as Tiger Roll to be as effective as he is over 2 miles and be capable of staying over twice that distance here and he’s probably a touch too short as a result.

Farclas is the only other horse well in and he’s another (even more so in his case) who is more at home over mid-range trips such as his fine effort behind The Shunter in the Plate at Cheltenham. His one foray over 3 miles at Christmas left the impression it was right on the limit of his range, so you’d have to be doubtful about his chances of staying this trip, well in and Jack Kennedy in the saddle or not.

Most of those on the same National mark as their current mark have simply been sat in their box since the weights were released, but it’s worth running through them on the basis they haven’t necessarily reduced their chances of winning. Mister Malarky is a likeable type who showed his fondness for Aintree (Mildmay Course admittedly) a couple of years back when coming a good second off 147 in the 3m handicap chase. He’s bettered that in victory twice since at Kempton and Ascot, in the process rising to a mark of 155 (and showing himself to be ground-neutral), and while his two runs since the second of those wins don’t scream that he has much, if anything, in hand off 155, he’s a solid enough type to run his race under these conditions. Not one to carry my cash, mind.

Kimberlite Candy seems to be living off his position last year as an antepost fancy before the race was called off due to the pandemic. Granted, he has a good record over the National fences, finishing second in the last two editions of the Becher. Yet he couldn’t get within 24 lengths of the ageing Vieux Lion Rouge in the most recent edition which is working out woefully (all of the finishers bar the winner are now lower than going into it, and even he has been dropped 4lbs since that win). All of which means the Tom Lacey inmate doesn’t seem like he has anything in hand off 153.

Ok Corral was pulled up at Cheltenham and the only reason he isn’t badly in now is because the handicapper appears to have taken into account the fact that it was his first run in over a year. He might come on for it, but it would take a gargantuan leap of faith to call him the winner with that as his solitary prep run.

Shattered Love ran well enough behind two quality mares at Cheltenham to suggest she’s in and around 150 given her conditions. However, those are small-field (preferably mares-only) events, which this palpably is not, and she’s also unlikely to stay.

Takingrisks showed he still has plenty left in the tank with a strong-staying win over Aye Right at Doncaster in the Sky Bet chase. Given the solid performance put in by Aye Right at Cheltenham off 3lbs higher, the ground likely to suit and him being a stout stayer, the only real downside is his age, and there are certainly worse 40/1 shots.

Class Conti ran in the Leinster National since weights were released but his fourth place wasn’t enough to change his mark either way. The form of that race wasn’t massively boosted in the Irish National, for all his run in the Thyestes was by Run Wild Fred, but he looks to prefer some cut either way and wouldn’t be my idea of the winner.

Another Irish horse is next on the list of those with marks unchanged in Discorama. A mark of 149 is certainly not out of reach, given his run in the Ultima last year and his stamina shown by a close second in the National Hunt Chase of 2019. For all that, he hasn’t shown as much this time around and the balance of his form suggests he’d prefer some cut.

Potters Corner was a few people’s selection last year, including the producers of the Virtual Grand National. He’s another who hasn’t shown enough for my liking recently, even over hurdles, and although he’s nailed on to stay, his best form is on the bottomless stuff found in the Midlands and Welsh Nationals he won in 2019.

Minellacelebration’s completion record and inability to land a blow off his lofty new mark when he did get round last time make him unbackable for me.

Vieux Lion Rouge must be heavily odds on to complete, such is his love for these fences, but it’s a stretch to say he’s got much chance over this trip after he didn’t land a blow in the Welsh National off 4lbs lower.

Canelo threatened to be a live contender after the improvement he showed before the turn of the year. However, his two subsequent runs, particularly most recently against inferior rivals, gave the impression he might have hit his ceiling in terms of progression and may not be cut out for this stamina test anyway.

Give Me A Copper at least has the upside of being interesting. On his day, I’ve little doubt he could be a 150+ horse, but he’s clearly been tricky to train and threw in the towel last time quite tamely. As a 66/1 (170.0 on the exchange!) shout, it’s the run before that you can hang your hat on if you want to back him, where he stayed on stoutly on decent ground to finish a close second. He’s not completely discounted back at 1lb higher, and on a going day would be the liveliest of the outsiders.

Ami Desbois is another 11-year-old now on a career-high mark from which he held his own last time out in a Veterans Chase to finish second. He should appreciate a thorough test of stamina but doesn’t seem to have a huge amount in hand. His form ties in with Double Shuffle, who beat him at Kempton two starts back after he fluffed the last. Double Shuffle followed that up with a solid run back at Kempton, but he’s always reserved his best for that track and shouldn’t trouble the places here.

It would take a fair few to come out for Fagan and Kauto Riko to get in and I’ll update this if they do, but there wouldn’t appear to be much point spending time on them given the other 43 I’m covering as it stands!

Irish horses running 1lb above their Irish marks are still theoretically well in, based on the general perception that the UK handicapper treats horses 2 or 3lbs more harshly than his Irish counterpart (even more if you look at the Cheltenham Festival, although British horses were typically more competitive in handicap chases).

The Storyteller has been the name on a few lips over the last few days and he’s clearly an adaptable and class act over both hurdles and fences. Whether he’ll be quite good enough to see out the 4 ¼ miles off 165 I’m less sure about. I tend to steer clear of higher rated horses in this despite the fact it’s condensed, as their class is often factored into their price more than their associated weight, as is the case here.

This test looks ideal for Yala Enki based on his Welsh National efforts and he’s proven he can carry a decent weight over a trip, which is more than can be said for a few in here. Historically he’s preferred some cut and he does have a first fence fall in the Becher to overcome, so I’m not rushing to back him at 40s despite the pull that you’re likely to get a decent run for your money. 1lb badly in.

Ballyoptic had good form last season, winning the Swinley off 1lb lower than he’ll carry here. He does appear regressive though now and it’s hard to see him going particularly close. 1lb badly in.

Balko Des Flos has been in the news for this ridiculous new Racing Club initiative/scam and was well backed for the Cross Country at Cheltenham showing that he’s still thought capable of putting in a decent run. There are a few more attractive types on form though, even at 50/1.

Cabaret Queen won the Kerry National at Listowel last September, but that was off 142 and she’s 6lbs higher here, a mark she’s been on and around a few times without getting particularly close to winning.

Minella Times has run three good races this term but is now up to a mark of 146. Considering he couldn’t win off 137 and 140 and still has stamina to prove, I’m very able to leave him alone at just 12/1. Of course, there’s every chance this test will unlock even more improvement, but I see a lot of his contraction in recent weeks resulting from people jumping aboard the De Bromhead/Blackmore bandwagon, which, dare I say it, seems to have come to a bit of a standstill in the last couple of weeks. Not for me at that price.

As with Fagan and Kauto Riko, Deise Aba and Valtor would be very lucky to get in and I’ll revisit them if they do.

Chris’s Dream has looked a bit tripless recently, having been nabbed by The Storyteller at Down Royal over three miles, before seeming to get taken off his feet by Min and Allaho respectively in the John Durkan and Ryanair. You’ve got to have serious class and stay well to win a National off a mark in the mid-160s and I’m not convinced he ticks either box.

Definitly Red is 2lbs badly in following a laboured effort in the Premier Chase behind Cloth Cap. I’m not sure on which planet he can reverse form on 11lbs worse terms at 12 years of age and for that reason, he can be left alone. Lake View Lad contested the same race and it’s a similar story for him off 8lbs worse terms. He won a race with very few fences jumped at Aintree in the autumn which at least attests he retains some level of ability, but a mark in the high 150s is still likely to prove beyond him here and he’s not exactly a massive price to account for it.

The Long Mile ran perfectly respectably in the Bobbyjo and he’ll reoppose Burrows Saint and Acapella Bourgeois on 9lbs and 3lbs better terms respectively. As a 7-year-old, he’s probably still got his best years ahead of him but he’s yet to prove he can handle a mark in the high 140s, let alone on better ground over a longer trip, all of which make him less than appealing, even at 50/1.

The big talking point at each declaration stage has been the question of whether Secret Reprieve will get in off 144. He’s clearly still unexposed, but it must be remembered that he won the Welsh National off an effective mark of 134 and the form has been slightly let down since, leading to a drop of 2lbs since the weights have come out. He won well enough in the Welsh National, but I’m not convinced a 10lb rise is justified and it’s still a big ask winning this as a novice. He’s short enough as it stands.

Another horse that has slipped a lot more under the radar and is similarly on the brink with regard to getting in or not is Some Neck. I couldn’t believe he was still 66/1 after his run in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. There he was just behind the 167-rated Easysland and ahead of the 152-rated Alpha Des Obeaux (dropped to 145 by the Irish handicapper since so he’s effectively 7lbs badly in).

Clearly Easysland was slightly below par and Tiger Roll was in a different league that day, but he’d be challenging Cloth Cap for favouritism if his owners weren’t so obstinate in not letting him take his chance. The quartet finished miles ahead of the others, suggesting that they were a good deal better than the remainder. And yet Some Neck, if he gets in, will be running off 144 here. He had a few jumping issues when under the charge of Willie Mullins, but seems to have been revitalised by Cross Country, and there has been no better pointer to the National than that in the last few years. Barring the obvious in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes came second in 2017 and even a past-it Bless The Wings came third in 2018. I genuinely think he should be a 20s shot and 50/1 is still huge – just have to hope Simon Torrens, no stranger to big-race success this year (but cannot use his 5lb claim here), can get him jumping early on.

As above, Golan Fortune would race off 142 and is unlikely to get in but I’ll come back to him if he does.

Now down to those 3lbs badly in or worse, although I’d only put the Denise Foster-trained Milan Native in that category as a technicality. He started the season well with a couple of good performances ahead of Discorama and behind Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, but then the wheels came off in the depths of winter. Despite that, he’s clearly still well fancied by the yard judging by the fact that Gordon Elliott earmarked him as his best chance when the weights came out and then him subsequently going off at 13/2 in the Ultima at Cheltenham after a wind op. That probably wasn’t enough of a test, horses dropped in fared badly that day (as ever), and you’d like to think these conditions might be the perfect storm for him. Definitely one for the shortlist at 55.0 on the exchange.

Magic Of Light is 4lbs badly in following her run in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham and based on her second place finish behind Tiger Roll in 2019. She clearly likes this test and has proven solid enough since, but she’ll have to pull out even more off 5lbs higher now and I don't think her odds reflect that.

Tout Est Permis is 4lbs badly in and, quite apart from the Bobbyjo form behind three that reoppose here and fall next time out, his best recent form has come over hurdles off a lower mark. He’s also not certain to want this test, for all the ground might suit better than the bogs he’s run in all winter.

Hogan’s Height has only run once since easily winning the Grand Sefton over the National fences in 2019, and that was when tailed off in this year’s Cross Country at Cheltenham, for which he’s 4lbs badly in. He might go well for a while but probably neither has the stamina nor ability off this mark to go close.

I was rather hoping they might take Sub Lieutenant to the Scottish National where he’d have a realistic chance of going close off 4lbs lower, but it seems this is the destination of choice. He’ll be a massive price and will probably get round, but a fairytale ending for the underdog connections is less probable given his well beaten effort at Ascot last time.

Talkischeap hasn’t shown anything like the ability that saw him bolt up in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown nearly two years ago since, even granted his preferred good ground, and that sees him 5lbs badly in here. He’s probably made for this race at some point but is still currently a bit high in the weights – maybe next year when his mark’s come down even further?

Jett hasn’t done anything since a career best at Punchestown in October 2019, even on his preferred better ground, and I’m not sure there’s enough evidence that he can compete off 150 to put him up here, particularly considering the Irish handicapper rates him 5lbs lower. On the plus side, he’s now owned by Robert Waley-Cohen, suggesting this has been the plan for a while.

Anibale Fly has sunk to a mark of just 148 in Ireland, despite being placed in both of the 2018 and 2019 Gold Cups and Grand Nationals. The UK handicapper hasn’t taken such an understanding view of his recent flops and keeps him on 155 here, still a good bit below his previous National appearances but with his residual ability now very much in question. If there was a bit more juice in his price he’d be of interest to replicate his placed performances, but on balance he’s best left alone with few recent signs of life.

As mentioned above, Alpha Des Obeaux has been dropped to a generous-looking 145 by the Irish handicapper, but he still has to run off 152 here. It’s not completely out the question that he can do that, particularly given a solid showing in the 2019 Becher shows he can handle the fences, but I’m not sure why you’d side with him ahead of Some Neck based on Cross Country form while they remain at similar prices.

In his pomp, Blaklion was good enough to come fourth here off 152, but that was back in 2017, and he’s put in two runs since the weights came out that gave enough evidence for the handicapper to drop him a full 7lbs. That alone puts me off.

So there you have it. Cloth Cap makes the market and means the five I’ve sided with are all juicy enough prices. SOME NECK (50/1, 60.0) is the strongest of them (given a run) and I’d back him all the way down to 25s. ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (33/1, 42.0) looks to be underestimated based on collateral form with most other contenders. I think everything might just come right for MILAN NATIVE (33/1, 55.0) here, while LORD DU MESNIL (40/1, 46.0) is 5lbs well in and is a huge price based on that alone. Finally, GIVE ME A COPPER (66/1, 170.0) is definitely worth a small play each way (or a nibble on the exchange), as if he’s on a going day he shouldn’t be far away.