DRF Sectionals

I expected the DRF to be the perfect place to make my first foray into sectional timing, with a number of races over the same course and distance, and the hope of similar ground across the two days as they attempted to avoid a rash of non-runners by keeping it soft enough through watering. The rain overnight into the Sunday didn’t help and reflects the fact that the second day saw generally slower times, nor did the pesky sun, meaning that for both the 2m Novice Hurdle and 2m Handicap Hurdle, they skipped the second last flight, but in different ways. More on that below.

I’ve split analysis into four sections:

- 2m hurdle races, of which there were four (including three on the Sunday) with some hypothetically penalised bumper horses running over 2m thrown into the mix for fun.
- 2m bumpers, of which there were two (geldings and mares).
- 2m5f+ chases, of which there were three.
- 2m1f chases, of which there were three.

2m hurdle races

	Honey.	SG adj	CML adj	LDB adj	Vauban	FV adj
Net weight vs H.	0lbs	+7lbs	-1lb	+3lbs	-3lbs	+6lbs
To hurdle 2	53.5	55.6	51.4	53.8	52.3	54.0
To hurdle 4	64.9	63.4	64.5	65.2	66.8	64.3
Cumulative	118.3	119.0	115.9	119.1	119.1	118.4
To 2 out	77.2	76.5	79.3	79.4	77.8	78.4
Cumulative	195.6	195.5	195.2	198.4	196.9	196.7
From 2 out	47.9	46.8	49.3	51.2	44.5	46.9
Total	243.5	242.4	244.5	249.6	241.3	243.6
Finishing speed	103.2%	105.1%	100.7%	99.1%	110.3%	105.5%

The first four columns show horses that ran on the Sunday, three of which have been adjusted. Sir Gerhard’s time has been lowered by 1 second, split between the last two sectionals, for the fact that he had to go around the second last flight of hurdles, which cost him somewhere in the region of that time in comparison to Honeysuckle. Call Me Lyreen’s time has been increased by 0.64 seconds (using Simon Rowlands’ assumptions for time taken to jump a hurdle), again split between the last two sectionals as he could go through, rather than around, the second last hurdle. On the flipside, Lily Du Berlais’ time has been increased by 5.12 seconds split equally between the four sectionals, showing how she would have been inconvenienced had hurdles been in her way. She helps to frame the other three times by showing how below average horses might have run, admittedly in a race run at too frenetic a pace.

The facts are these. Despite some disagreement on official timings, Sir Gerhard ran a time that was marginally quicker than Honeysuckle, even though he was inconvenienced by having to go around the second last flight to the tune of about a second and running less economically. He was carrying the same weight as Honeysuckle’s male rivals and, despite jumping woefully, would’ve served it up to her a good deal more effectively than her below par oppo on that day that mostly sat in the 150+ bracket when taking into account Echoes In Rain’s mares’ allowance. It was a monstrous performance.

But Honeysuckle wasn’t fully extended, they say on Twitter. True, and it’s difficult to know what she had left in the tank, but Sir Gerhard was lengthening all the way to the line, unlike her. But Honeysuckle put her rivals to bed with her turn of foot, so they say. Her move between the last two flights was no quicker than that of Sir Gerhard, even before taking into account the fact he had further to travel. But Henry de Bromhead is out of form at the moment, they say. That appears to be true, but I’d argue his unbelievable form at the last festival is more anomalous than his current quiet spell.

It doesn’t matter really as they’re not going to come up against one another this season, but it means I’ll be looking to take on Honeysuckle going forward (if possible – the cupboard is bare) and siding with Sir Gerhard, even if he were to rock up in the lion’s den that is the Supreme. As well as putting him clear of Honeysuckle’s rivals yesterday and into the 150s in terms of ratings, he was a good 15lbs clear of Call Me Lyreen with adjustments, weights and the economic finishing speed of the latter accounted for.

What about Vauban, who streaked clear of a mostly unbeaten field in the Spring Juvenile? His turn of foot, honed on the flat in France, was the winner. Expect the Triumph Hurdle field to serve up a markedly different test to him on the stamina-sapping New Course that may suit the second, Fil Dor, better. Equally, Il Etait Temps, tactically disadvantaged at the back of the pack off the slow pace, ran remarkably for a debutant over hurdles and will surely come on for the run and be positioned more aggressively. I took 20s NRNB after the race and I’d be on him antepost at that price too were there not the slight possibility that Mullins might put him away to have as another ace up his sleeve in next year’s novice hurdling division.

 

2m bumpers

	Facile Vega	Sandor Clegane	Embassy Gardens	Lily Du Berlais	Ashroe Diamond
Net weight vs FV	0lbs	0lbs	0lbs	-3lb	-3lbs
To hurdle 2	52.8	53.0	52.7	52.5	53.4
To hurdle 4	63.0	63.1	63.4	64.0	63.0
Cumulative	115.8	116.1	116.1	116.5	116.4
To 2 out	77.1	77.2	77.6	78.1	78.8
Cumulative	192.9	193.2	193.7	194.6	195.3
From 2 out	45.6	47.7	49.8	49.9	50.9
Total	238.5	241.0	243.5	244.5	246.2
Finishing speed	106.2%	102.5%	99.3%	99.5%	98.2%

The first three columns show the winner, the second and the frontrunner in the bumper on the Saturday, while the last two show the winner of the mares’ bumper and Ashroe Diamond, who was prominent early on and stuck on well to finish a close fourth.

Facile Vega’s sectionals would make you think he quickened the best off a slow pace and plenty around were making similar comments after the race. “Get him running at Champion Bumper pace,” screamed the critics and anyone with an American Mike ticket in their pockets. However, what may have been a slow pace for him was more regular for the others in the race. Embassy Gardens ended up going off marginally too quickly for what he was capable of on the day, while Sandor Clegane, the only one to get anywhere near Facile Vega, only had to quicken slightly from two out. Facile Vega has clearly got a turn of foot, but his mum was more adept over 3m than 2m so rule him out as one trick pony at your peril.

The mares’ bumper is more straightforward to dissect. They all went too quickly, but Lily Du Berlais the least inefficiently of the lot. She could have won by a lot more had her jockey not given the rest of the field the best part of two seconds at the start. Ashroe Diamond and Pink In the Park fared best of those who were up with the pace and could well be better prospects than the second and third in the race, but maybe not the winner given her tardy start.

 

2m5f chases

	Galopin Des Champs	Gaillard Du Mesnil	Birchdale	Blackbow	Conflated
Net weight vs GDC	0lbs	0lbs	-23lbs	-1lb	0lbs
Winning line	101.1	101.4	100.5	100.6	103.0
Fence 9 (ditch)	108.9	108.9	109.7	109.3	111.0
Cumulative	210.0	210.2	210.3	209.9	214.0
2 out	69.1	69.2	71.3	71.3	68.1
Cumulative	279.1	279.5	281.5	281.2	282.1
Finish	50.8	52.4	53.9	56.7	50.3
Total	330.0	331.9	335.4	338.0	332.4
Finishing speed	103.6%	101.1%	99.3%	95.0%	105.4%

Galopin Des Champs put up another monstrous performance visually and the clock backed him up. He was faster than the 156-rated Blackbow, and while he was outsprinted to the line by Conflated in virtual terms (who had run 3 furlongs further), times on the Sunday were generally slower after the overnight rain.

Impressive as he was, there are a couple of caveats. Two meaningful opponents came down mid-race in the shape of Capodanno and Beacon Edge, and either of them could easily have been more competitive than those who did not. More importantly with regard to where he goes next, the pace of the race was not as hot as some are making out. Townend said afterwards that they were going quickly down the back, but even Gaillard Du Mesnil, who I keep saying wants further, was able to keep tabs and even run slightly within himself.

Why does this matter? The point is that GDC has yet to encounter a fierce pace that will test his stamina. Even winning over 3m over hurdles at Punchestown last season, he quickened off a slow pace. If Ahoy Senor were to turn up and make it a test, GDC would be into unknown territory. Far better the devil you know (i.e. Bob Olinger and L’Homme Presse) over 2m4f than the devil you don’t over 3m versus Bravemansgame (himself with stamina question marks) and Ahoy Senor, plus a host of others that may fancy themselves to turn the tables over further.

They went too fast in the handicap (the 156-rated Blackbow more than most) and, despite benefitting at the weights, were inferior to the novices that had preceded them, giving a degree of substance to the form.

Conflated managed to beat his Irish Gold Cup foes by skipping clear just before 2 out off a slowish pace and that is reflected by his relatively fast finish (even faster than Blue Lord – see below). He won last time over 2m4f and looks very short for the Cheltenham Gold Cup considering it will be a completely different test. He could even be more suited to the Ryanair. Minella Indo will clearly be far more suited by Cheltenham, but there’s a chance he may be forced to make his own running. Seriously. Look through the betting and see who’ll make it. Santini maybe for half a lap until he can’t keep it up? I’m almost coming round to Galvin on the basis this might end up being a sprint like all his recent wins.

 

2m1f chases

	Chacun Pour Soi	A Wave Of The Sea	Blue Lord	Riviere D'Etel	Saint Sam
Net weight vs CPS	0lbs	-7lbs	0lbs	-9lbs	-2lbs
Fence 3	72.6	72.7	70.8	70.8	70.0
Fence 6	72.3	70.7	68.8	68.4	68.6
Cumulative	145.0	143.5	139.6	139.2	138.6
2 out	68.6	69.2	67.3	67.5	67.7
Cumulative	213.6	212.6	206.9	206.7	206.3
Finish	50.3	51.4	51.3	51.6	52.5
Total	263.9	264.0	258.2	258.3	258.8
Finishing	103.4%	101.3%	99.1%	98.7%	97.2%

I’m a big Chacun fan, have backed him from the Champion Chase and was warmed by Willie’s words that he rates him higher than Energumene, but the sectionals show his performance on Sunday was run of the mill rather than spectacular. He ran a similar time to the 141-rated A Wave Of The Sea (carrying 7lbs less and running more efficiently) the previous day, suggesting the pace wasn't particularly hot, as even though the handicap was run on better ground, it was far from a strong one. Chacun's finish was comparable to Galopin Des Champs over 4 furlongs further on the same card, suggesting he didn't overexert himself on the run in either. It’s clear that Chacun Pour Soi has run plenty of more impressive races in his time, not least at Punchestown last spring off a particularly hot pace. Greaneteen was the only horse in the race rated in the same ballpark and ran no sort of race, while the others are probably mid-150 performers at best (Dunvegan looks particularly hard done by raised to 162). He’ll need a lot more to take down his stablemate Energumene, let alone the mighty Shishkin.

There’s not a huge amount of point comparing his race with the Irish Arkle the day before in pure time terms given the ground differences, but it is clear that race had a very different complexion. Saint Sam went hard and made it a proper test, running inefficiently in the process but staying on to be beaten only four lengths. In fact, the top 3 were also in that order of efficiency, meaning that they could have finished much closer together. As many have pointed out, Saint Sam was impressive in not folding when he gave way, and he could go up in trip to be Mullins’ Turners number one if Galopin Des Champs goes to 3m. While Riviere D’Etel could be marked up enough to turn the tables with Blue Lord (particularly if you take her squiffy jump at the last into account), she’ll lose 2lbs of her allowance and there’s a chance Blue Lord wasn’t doing a lot once he hit the front. All to play for in the Arkle, particularly if you throw in Edwardstone and the rejuvenated Third Time Lucki.