CHASERS (125-rated plus)
Risers (3lb+):
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
22/12/2020 |
Change |
|
ANNSAM
(GB) |
127 |
139 |
12 |
|
FULL BACK
(FR) |
125 |
137 |
12 |
|
CHEDDLETON
(GB) |
138 |
149 |
11 |
|
DASHEL
DRASHER (GB) |
143 |
152 |
9 |
|
FADO DES
BROSSES (FR) |
128 |
137 |
9 |
|
ST BARTS
(IRE) |
128 |
137 |
9 |
|
MESSIRE
DES OBEAUX (FR) |
138 |
147 |
9 |
|
ALLART
(IRE) |
143 |
152 |
9 |
|
COBOLOBO
(FR) |
128 |
136 |
8 |
|
MOMELLA
(IRE) |
127 |
135 |
8 |
|
SAO (FR) |
125 |
133 |
8 |
|
ECLAIR
SURF (FR) |
123 |
131 |
8 |
|
ENZO
D'AIRY (FR) |
122 |
130 |
8 |
|
BENNYS
KING (IRE) |
147 |
154 |
7 |
|
ADMIRAL'S
SECRET (GB) |
135 |
141 |
6 |
|
MISTER
MALARKY (GB) |
150 |
156 |
6 |
|
SAM'S
ADVENTURE (GB) |
133 |
139 |
6 |
|
MAROWN
(IRE) |
130 |
135 |
5 |
|
ANOTHER
VENTURE (IRE) |
135 |
140 |
5 |
|
SHE'SASUPERMACK
(IRE) |
130 |
134 |
4 |
|
COCONUT
SPLASH (IRE) |
131 |
135 |
4 |
|
JONNIESOFA
(IRE) |
138 |
141 |
3 |
|
THE
CONDITIONAL (IRE) |
146 |
149 |
3 |
|
ECLAIR
D'AINAY (FR) |
127 |
130 |
3 |
|
VERSATILITY
(GB) |
127 |
130 |
3 |
Some fairly harsh rises this week, probably due to heavy
going accentuating distances won by, so a few of those hit may struggle to
follow up. They include Dashel Drasher, who put in a game performance
but probably won due to the shortcomings of his two opponents rather than any
of his own brilliance. He can still contest handicaps off 152 but will likely have
to improve on the bare form of his small field wins to take a hand in any of
the top ones.
Cheddleton is still 66/1 for the Arkle, even after demolishing
a decent field at Haydock at the weekend to earn a rating of 149. That field included
159-rated hurdler Cornerstone Lad who was having his first run over fences and,
in receipt of 6lbs, had no answer to the winner. He was relatively unexposed
over hurdles and wasn’t particularly fluent over his fences, suggesting there’s
some engine there and potentially further improvement to come. While he may
struggle to compete with big fish like Shishkin and the Irish battalions that would
come over for this race, the calmer waters of Aintree could suit him nicely and
you’ll be likely to get a decent price due to his unfashionable but highly
capable trainer, Jennie Candlish.
Allart also deserves a mention having learned plenty during
his debut over fences in a Grade 2 and will be of warm interest were anything to
happen to Envoi Allen in the 2 mile 4 furlong division. Another for Aintree
perhaps?
Although Messire Des Obeaux was most impressive in
winning a Wincanton novices’ handicap chase after only one run in three years,
you wonder whether the second, Coconut Splash, might have more mileage even
after a 4lb rise, as the only one to lay a glove on the well-handicapped
winner.
Momella was deemed good enough to go off 4/1 in the
Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in 2018 and so a mark of 127 after an
unlucky first few starts over fences proved to be a gift at Exeter last Thursday.
This was the shortest trip she’d ever run over, albeit on heavy, but 135 may
underestimate her going forward, thrashing as she did a 132-rated rival by 12
lengths.
Finally, The Conditional looks a much better jumper
left-handed than right, and probably would have won had he jumped better.
Still, a 3lb rise sees him only 2lbs higher than when an unfit third in the
Ladbrokes Trophy and, given a return to a left-handed track with marginally
less emphasis on stamina, 149 seems well within his range.
3 to follow: Cheddleton, Momella, The Conditional
Non-movers* (-2lbs to +2lbs):
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
22/12/2020 |
Change |
|
SOJOURN
(IRE) |
140 |
142 |
2 |
|
EDITEUR DU
GITE (FR) |
125 |
126 |
1 |
|
REGAL
ENCORE (IRE) |
150 |
150 |
0 |
|
HIGHEST
SUN (FR) |
134 |
133 |
-1 |
*
Selected horses
Sojourn put up a brave effort in defeat off 11lbs
higher than his previous win and perhaps with a more patient ride would have
prevailed. A marginal drop in trip to 3 miles could see him resume the winning
thread off just 2lbs higher.
Editeur Du Gite was weak in the betting on Friday and Gary Moore played down his chances due to the ground, but had them all hard
at it two fences out. He ended up being outstayed as Moore’s fears were
probably realised, but on better ground and a less taxing track, should have
mileage off 126.
It’s hard to say Regal Encore is well handicapped as
a 12-year-old going on 13, but for whatever reason he refuses to run a poor
race at Ascot and even off 150 you’d have to consider him strongly for a place
if he were return there for a similar race in the New Year.
There’s something of Sky Pirate about Highest Sun,
but I’d argue the Tizzard inmate is even more wicked as he’s clearly a tricky
customer rather than just a bridal ponce. He always seems to roll into races on
the bridal before emptying and, now off 133, has to be dangerous over a shorter
trip.
3 to follow: Sojourn, Editeur Du Gite, Highest Sun
Fallers (3lbs-):
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
22/12/2020 |
Change |
|
FAUBURG
ROSETGRI (FR) |
143 |
137 |
-6 |
|
TOBEFAIR
(GB) |
140 |
134 |
-6 |
|
CORNERSTONE
LAD (GB) |
159 |
154 |
-5 |
|
BEWARE THE
BEAR (IRE) |
157 |
153 |
-4 |
|
CAID DU
LIN (FR) |
142 |
138 |
-4 |
|
NOT
ANOTHER MUDDLE (GB) |
138 |
134 |
-4 |
|
DEJA VUE
(IRE) |
132 |
128 |
-4 |
|
ERAGONE
(FR) |
136 |
132 |
-4 |
|
COLLOONEY
(IRE) |
134 |
130 |
-4 |
|
SAINT
SONNET (FR) |
146 |
143 |
-3 |
|
KILFILUM
CROSS (IRE) |
138 |
135 |
-3 |
|
LIKE THE
SOUND (FR) |
135 |
132 |
-3 |
|
OCEAN COVE
(IRE) |
130 |
127 |
-3 |
|
PIC D'ORHY
(FR) |
150 |
147 |
-3 |
|
STRONG
GLANCE (GB) |
132 |
129 |
-3 |
|
MACK THE
MAN (IRE) |
130 |
127 |
-3 |
It’s difficult to argue with a few of these, but Beware
The Bear had plenty of supporters at Ascot off the back of a steady
fifth in the Ladbrokes Trophy. He rather spat the dummy out and never featured,
but is now 5lbs lower than his mark at Newbury. If freshened up a tad, he has
plenty to offer off 153 in the New Year, despite the fact that he’ll be 11. A
Henderson horse winning the Grand National? Stranger things have happened…
Kilfilum Cross has a habit of peaking at Cheltenham
in March, having come second in the last two runnings of the Kim Muir off 139
and 138. I’m sure a fall of 3lbs will be music to the ears of connections. Any
sign of life in his next race and he’ll be right on track to go one better at
the Festival.
Pic D’Orhy was never going to like conditions at Ascot.
Despite having won on heavy over hurdles in France, his best form in the UK by
a country mile was his Betfair Hurdle win off 146. Now back down at 147 over fences,
I’m sure Paul Nicholls will be eyeing up something on better ground and if he can’t
turn him into a graded performer, the Grand Annual is likely to come into
consideration.
Finally, a word on Mack The Man. It hasn’t really happened
for him over fences yet and 127 underestimates him if he can sort himself out.
If he can’t, I very much believe he has unfinished business over hurdles and
can win a big one in that sphere off about 130.
3 to follow: Beware The Bear, Kilfilum Cross, Pic D’Orhy
HURDLERS (125-rated plus)
Risers (3lbs+)
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
22/12/2020 |
Change |
|
NADA TO
PRADA (GB) |
118 |
132 |
14 |
|
FRIEND OR
FOE (FR) |
128 |
141 |
13 |
|
BAILARICO
(IRE) |
117 |
126 |
9 |
|
ALBERT'S
BACK (GB) |
133 |
141 |
8 |
|
NOT SO
SLEEPY (GB) |
142 |
149 |
7 |
|
OCEAN
DRIFTER (IRE) |
120 |
127 |
7 |
|
CHTI BALKO
(FR) |
135 |
141 |
6 |
|
EMIR
SACREE (FR) |
125 |
131 |
6 |
|
QUEENOHEARTS
(IRE) |
132 |
137 |
5 |
|
BUZZ (FR) |
148 |
152 |
4 |
|
CASTLE
ROBIN (IRE) |
126 |
130 |
4 |
|
FAIVOIR
(FR) |
127 |
131 |
4 |
|
UNOHU (GB) |
122 |
126 |
4 |
|
CAPTAIN
ZEBO (IRE) |
142 |
145 |
3 |
|
LIGHTLY
SQUEEZE (GB) |
137 |
140 |
3 |
|
ANNUAL
INVICTUS (IRE) |
127 |
130 |
3 |
I thought Albert’s Back might be in for a double
figure rise after comfortably winning a warm handicap at Haydock, so 8lbs is a
pleasant surprise. He’s thriving for a return to hurdles and that win vicariously
boosts Haafapiece’s form, already identified as being strong last week. He
surprisingly has no collateral damage to his mark and stays on an appealing
132.
Money talks. The richest 2 mile hurdle of the season to date
looked supremely competitive on paper and some of the more fancied types bombed
out, my pick Arrivederci included. The top three have been hit with 3lb+ rises
and understandably so. Not So Sleepy is very good when on his game, but
appears to need a big field to stay focussed, which is why I’d prefer a tilt at
the County Hurdle at Cheltenham rather than the Champion Hurdle, which is where
Hughie Morrison says will be the next port of call.
Buzz was unfortunate to be impeded by Lightly Squeeze
at the last. Had he not been, the race might have had a different winner and a
4lb rise is probably slightly on the lenient side. Lightly Squeeze continues to
perform well in big fields and may appreciate a track with a slightly less
stiff finish.
3 to follow: Albert’s Back, Buzz, Lightly Squeeze
Non-movers* (-3lbs to +2lbs):
|
Name |
15/12/2020 |
22/12/2020 |
Change |
|
MCGOWAN'S
PASS (GB) |
128 |
128 |
0 |
|
BENSON
(GB) |
137 |
137 |
0 |
|
NIGHT
EDITION (FR) |
135 |
133 |
-2 |
*
Selected horses
Not too many I fancy in this section and the first is
slightly on the basis that Albert’s Back was extremely well in. Mcgowan’s
Pass raced wide and put some distance between himself and the rest of the field
before a poor jump at the last left him trailing in the winner’s wake. He would
seem to have a bit more up his sleeve off this mark.
What to say about Benson? This performance in the
Betfair Exchange Hurdle at Ascot was bizarre in the extreme, tailing off before
powering home to snatch a never nearer fourth. It’s difficult what to make of
it, apart from that despite his quirks he has talent in abundance and will improve on his mark of
137 at some point, potentially up in trip. When that may be is anyone but Benson’s
guess.
I mentioned Night Edition would be interesting in the
same race if the money came, but quite the opposite transpired and he ended up
going off at about 50 on the exchange. That tells you Team Pipe didn’t have him
fully tuned up on his seasonal debut and he’s been dropped a couple of pounds
to the mark off which he was a very good second in the Fred Winter/Boodles.
Expect him to take a hand in some of the hottest 2 mile handicaps later in the
season.
3 to follow: Night Edition, Benson, Mcgowan’s Pass
Newbies* (new entries):
|
Name |
22/12/2020 |
|
MY DROGO
(GB) |
140 |
|
JARVEYS
PLATE (IRE) |
138 |
|
TEDHAM
(GB) |
130 |
|
EVERGLOW
(GB) |
126 |
*
Selected horses
My Drogo was a much improved model at Ascot over his
hurdles and improved upon his Newbury run to beat a decent field. 140 is a bit
of a guess and is largely based on Llandinabo Lad, the second, and his mark of
141 (bearing in mind he was giving 5lbs to the field). You’d like to think My
Drogo has more scope to improve, this being just his third run under rules and
he rates a live contender in the Supreme at the Festival.
Jarvey’s Plate and Tedham aren’t really new
entries, but rather returnees from aborted careers over fences. Jarvey’s Plate
has been entered up at Kempton on Boxing Day on a mark of 138, 11lbs lower than
the heights he reached over fences despite never really appearing to jump them
with ease. Fergal O’Brien has taken a similar decision to come back over
hurdles with Ask Dillon, which was almost vindicated at the weekend when he
narrowly failed in at Haydock. 138 might underestimate Jarvey’s Plate’s
undoubted engine.
Tedham only had one start over fences, in which he was
pulled up, and is entered at Wincanton, probably in an attempt to get him
qualified for the Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham. He has gone off at around 5/1
in his last four hurdles runs, all handicaps off about this mark, so Jonjo O’Neill
and the team evidently think it’s one he can win from.
Finally, Everglow belatedly got on the scoresheet over
hurdles at Ascot in a weaker affair than the My Drogo race while still looking
green, and is the type to improve a long way past an opening mark of 126 in
time.