Cheltenham Thursday

Turners: Sir Gerhard 7s, Mcfabulous 66s

This race is a bit deeper than the market would suggest, so I’d be wary of backing Mighty Potter at anything less than 2s. I don’t for one moment think Sir Gerhard will run here unless it gets testing, but if he does he’s certainly no 7s (NRNB) shot. He’s unbeaten at Cheltenham and probably has the best engine of these, which could make up for his lack of experience over fences. If he doesn’t run, Appreciate It and Banbridge are no mugs, having come second and third in a much deeper race than Mighty Potter’s at Leopardstown, and I was tempted to put Balco Coastal up until he shortened after confirmations as he’s bound to improve for a left-handed track. However, the bet (NRNB) is Mcfabulous at a whopping 66/1. He’s not that likely to run but the fact he was confirmed at the 6-day stage suggests he might do and you can forget two of his runs this season where he was pulled up on rock-hard ground. He came back after the first of these to easily dispose of the well-touted Thyme Hill at Exeter and although that form was overturned convincingly next time out, his hurdle form has him as good as most of these from a class angle.

 

Pertemps: Maxxum 8s, Jet Of Magic 33s

I normally try and find some value here, but the new conditions of this race (have to finish first 4 rather than first 6 in a qualifier) mean that it’s a bit short on depth and we may not even get a full field. It now looks like soft ground is likely, and very few of those at the head of the market (or in general) have form on anything softer than good. Maxxum was all the rage before a tame display at the DRF but the time he put up in the Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas before that (on soft ground) would put him in contention for the Stayers Hurdle. He’s been put up 25lbs from his Irish rating since then but I have little doubt that he is a graded horse masquerading in a handicap and 145 may still see him very well in. A lot of the other fancied horses (Shoot First, Salvador Ziggy, An Tailliur) haven’t run for a few months and are unproven on soft ground, but one who looks like they still have more to give is Jet Of Magic. No idea if he runs as he’s about 85 on the exchange (but question why he’d be confirmed if he doesn’t). He’d handle cut, has gone of favourite a couple of times off near enough this mark and at both Sandown and Cheltenham made a bit of a mess of the last couple of hurdles, which dented his chances. He travels well and might be worth nibbling at on the exchange or backing at a big price if declared.

 

Ryanair: Hitman 22s

Shishkin is a long way clear of the others here, the only question mark being whether he’ll be able to follow up such a monstrous performance in the Ascot Chase 3 weeks ago. 4/5 isn’t my kind of price but I wouldn’t put you off sticking him in an acca or two as it’s probably still value. The rest in this race are fairly inconsistent and the one who looks overpriced is Hitman. This trip is his optimum and his form prior to the King George (where he made a blunder early on and never travelled after) puts him firmly in the race for second here.

 

Stayers: Gold Tweet 14s, Henri Le Farceur 25s

This race is a mess and very difficult to make head or tail of due to the number of horses coming into it with some kind of question mark. Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter and Klassical Dream have all had to overcome niggles of some kind (even if there’s every suspicion Charles Byrnes’ regular updates are done so with his pocket in mind). Teahupoo should like the soft ground but you’d have to question his aptitude for Cheltenham at a short price. Marie’s Rock may not stay on the soft ground as a free-going type and there’s every chance connections revert to Plan A in the mares’ hurdle. Home By The Lee has decent form on the face of it but he’s yet to put a good time in on the clock. Gold Tweet, however, was impressive in dispatching solid yardsticks Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle last time and should go well off what could be a slow pace again. Henri Le Farceur is a bit of an unknown quantity but has better French form that Gold Tweet and therefore looks too big at double his price.

 

Plate: Frero Banbou 12s, War Lord 20s

I’m keen to take on So Scottish at the head of the market with a bit of rain forecast, but there don’t appear to be many progressive horses high enough in the weights to get in. War Lord looks well handicapped and must have more to give over this trip with a more forward ride. Tizzard horses generally run over trips that are too short for too long and War Lord looks more of a 2m4f/3m horse than 2m. He looked back to form last time behind Gemirande (just touched off recently off 6lbs higher and also interesting in this but unlikely to get in off 132) and should appreciate some cut in the ground. There isn’t much left to shout about in this race, particularly if you think the Irish chasers tend to be slightly over-handicapped when they come to Cheltenham. Frero Banbou goes very well on soft ground, so if it is testing he should be a player off 6lbs lower than his Grand Annual 3^rd last year. He looks like he needs the extra mileage now anyway so 12s is a decent enough price in a race where not much else sticks out.

 

Mares Novice Hurdle: Jetara 16s, Ahorsewithnoname 25s, Harmonya Maker 33s

Although it doesn’t always play out that way, some years the 5lb penalty incurred by certain horses for this race can be underestimated in the betting and I’ve picked out four of interest at big prices. Of the fancied horses, Luccia, Ashroe Diamond, Magical Zoe and You Wear It Well all carry a penalty and I’d be inclined to steer clear of them for betting purposes as a result. Luccia could be a worldbeater but hasn’t shown enough yet to justify odds of 13/8 with the penalty taken into account. Of those without a penalty, Halka Du Tabert has run a decent timefigure, but frontrunners tend to struggle with the long straight on the New Course. I prefer the claims of the horse that finished in front of her in that race, Jetara, who also split High Definition and the well-touted Parmenion on her previous run before that. She’ll run without a penalty and should go close as the second-top rated (by the BHA) in the field after Luccia. Last year’s second, Ahorsewithnoname, runs again and is a big price considering she’s shown her aptitude for a race of this nature. The final dart here is Harmonya Maker (who may not run given her weakness on the exchange in recent days and weeks). She put up one of the best timefigures this season on her penultimate start and looks to stay well (which could be key on the likely ground). She unseated last time out, but seems underestimated based on her previous exploits.

 

Kim Muir: Next Destination 14s, Fontaine Collonges 33s

Irish horses tend to be overbet in this race as people assume that the better amateurs on that side of the Irish Sea will lift their horses home. The reality is that British horses have a decent record in the race and are likely to be better handicapped overall. I’m therefore avoiding the likes of Stumptown, Mr Incredible, Angels Dawn and Dunboyne and plumping for a couple of British horses for value reasons. The first of those is Next Destination, a horse who was one of the leading staying novices two seasons ago. He’s had his share of injury problems before and since then but he came back to a high level then and has moved to Nicky Henderson, one of the best in the business of getting a horse to peak first time out after a long absence. He could make a mark of 145 look very lenient if back to 90% of his best. The other selection is Fontaine Collonges, but only if the ground is soft. She has improved steadily for increases in trip and heavy going and if the taps are turned on on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as forecast, she seems well enough handicapped to have a say here for last year’s winning trainer.

Cheltenham Wednesday

Ballymore: Hermes Allen 3s, Champ Kiely 8s

Bit of a weird one this for me, as I’ve backed Gaelic Warrior and Impaire Et Passe at bigger prices but don’t really like them at where they are now. Hermes Allen is now backable having drifted given the ease with which he’s swatted aside some decent British yardsticks. People seem to be giving him stick based on the performances of stablemates Stage Star and Bravemansgame the last two years but he’s a bit more forward than they were and his win at Cheltenham earlier this season was very impressive. Champ Kiely will probably be Mullins’ third choice, but has form up there with the best of them and should get the services of Danny Mullins again who gave him a canny front-running ride last time.

 

Brown Advisory: Thunder Rock 14s

Gerri Colombe was definitely value at 3s a few weeks back, but now that’s gone he could be vulnerable at 7/4. Sir Gerhard could be good enough but you’re taking a leap of faith at a skinny enough price and he could just as well bomb out or even defect to the Turners on Thursday if the heavens do open. The Real Whacker ran a very good timefigure last time but that may have been a fluke given his lack of back class. Thyme Hill was a very good hurdler but may not have the scope to tackle Cheltenham’s fences. All of which leads me to thinking Thunder Rock is quite a good bet. He jumped poorly behind The Real Whacker and couldn’t quite get into the race behind Gerri Colombe on his last two runs, but there’s every reason to think the extra distance could see him in a good light. Expect The Real Whacker to set a good gallop, so having him sitting off the pace could serve him well. He’s only 14s now but might drift a bit if the top few get some support and is worth a play even if just for interest. Be a bit wary of the ground though as he probably wouldn’t want it too soft.

 

Coral Cup: Benson 20s, Langer Dan 10s

Bit of a lottery this race and one you’ve got to see final declarations to properly sort out, but a couple that take my eye include Benson, who I have a bit of soft for as he’s a reformed nutter (see the closing stages of his run at Sandown in February 2020 or Ascot in December 2020 to find out why). Reformed he is now though and has been rejuvenated by a move to Scotland to land the Morebattle last weekend. He was put up 5lbs (which cancels out his 5lb penalty), which I thought was a tad generous and he could have more up his sleeve (certainly has the ability) at this longer trip. In the absence of a better shout, Langer Dan is an obvious enough pick (win only) given his propensity to come good in the spring after some quiet “sighters” earlier in the season. Unlucky the last couple of years, he’s capable of putting that right off this mark and seems versatile with regard to ground unlike the equally well treated Camprond.

 

Champion Chase: Greaneteen 33s

Potentially the race of the meeting in terms of competitiveness, I’ve made a case for most of these horses at the prices. Edwardstone just shades it for me from Energumene based on their last runs, while Editeur Du Gite is a few points behind, because despite beating these last time, the race went perfectly for him and he’ll have competition for the lead this time. That’ll be in the shape of Gentleman De Mee, who’d be a live player on properly good ground but the forecast makes that look unlikely. The top 4 are therefore all about the right price. Nube Negra is probably a shade below top class, which leaves Greaneteen, who is perfectly capable of mixing it with these off the back of multiple pieces of form but is the price he is due to a below par effort last time and a slightly below par effort the time before. 33s doesn’t do him justice based on his three Group 1 wins at Sandown (the most recent of which came off a shocker of a run in Leopardstown), Haldon Gold Cup win in November or close fourth in this 2 years ago.

 

Cross country: Francky Du Berlais 50s, Diesel D’Aillier 33s

Take your pick here between Galvin and Delta Work. It sounds like the market will flip flop based on whoever gets their ground (Galvin wants good, Delta wants soft) and I’d almost be inclined to back whoever doesn’t on that basis as they each have form on all types of ground. After them though there’s not a lot and I think Francky Du Berlais is in with a shout of placing at a monster price. He came out pretty well at the weights in the only prep race at Cheltenham this season, more or less on a par with the likes of Back On The Lash and Snow Leopardess who are far shorter. It was his first try over these fences and he could well improve for the experience so he’s worth a play at small stakes each way. Diesel D’Allier can be forgiven his first run back in the aforementioned prep race and 6s isn’t a bad bet to finish in the first 3 (Sky Bet), but I’d probably only back him if the ground stays good.

 

Grand Annual: Shakem Up’Arry 25s, Sizing Pottsie 33s

I’ve already backed Rouge Vif here but his form doesn’t warrant his price now, particularly with a bit of rain forecast, and he may not get in anyway. Shakem Up’Arry travelled like the winner last time out at Cheltenham in a hot handicap and would race off the same mark here over a shorter trip. The only question mark is whether he tackles this race or the Plate, which might depend on the weather, but he definitely won’t be 25s on soft ground so take the price now NRNB. Sizing Pottsie should run and has tumbled down the handicap off a few below par runs that the UK handicapper now seems to treat very generously. That leaves him off a mark of 140, but he was capable of winning a Grade 2 a year ago and David Pipe is shrewd enough to have had this as the plan all season. The forecast rain on Wednesday should suit him nicely.

 

Champion Bumper: Better Days Ahead 12s, King Of Kingsfield 33s

No firm convictions here but I’m going to do almost the exact opposite of the famous maxim “Willie’s in the bumper” and go for “Gordon’s” instead. Mullins doesn’t seem to have a standout this year and the fact that the first he namechecks when asked about bumper horses is Chapeau De Soleil, beaten on his only start, suggests that none of them are of the same calibre we’ve seen him produce over the last few years. The horse that beat him that day in a traditionally strong Fairyhouse bumper was Better Days Ahead, and he’s both a bigger price and in receipt of rave reviews out of the Elliott stable. At a much juicier price, King Of Kingsfield was well beaten last time but there are reports he was all wrong and while Elliott might name Better Days Ahead his best horse, King Of Kingsfield is said to be his quickest. You need a bit of speed in the Champion Bumper both for position and for quickening off the final bend and he might get a few others in trouble if he’s up to the hype.

Cheltenham Tuesday

Supreme: Il Etait Temps 13/2, Rare Edition 25s

The big unknown here is whether the Facile Vega we think he could be shows up or the underwhelming one from last time. I’d say it’s 2/1 the latter so will leave at current prices because top-drawer Facile Vega might not win this anyway. Il Etait Temps has the most solid form in book (and more pertinently perhaps, has run the best timefigure), so surely should be shorter than 13/2 at time of writing. He’s a bet. Most of the others, including Grade 1 winners Marine Nationale and Tahmuras, are largely unproven. Those two may come into it further if conditions become testing but are best left for now. It’s an open race and should be the biggest field for a few years, so I wouldn’t be against an each way poke at a big price as there could be 4 or 5 places on the day. The other bet for me is Rare Edition at 25s or bigger, who ran a great time on the same card as Constitution Hill at Christmas, had his form boosted by the runner up that day recently and had excuses for being turned over at odds on last time after scoping badly. He could still be a good one in an open enough opener.

 

Arkle: Saint Roi 9s

No massive preference between Jonbon and El Fabiolo (probably marginally prefer Jonbon) and wouldn’t count out Dysart Dynamo over a furlong and a half less than the DRF and the downhill run before the last three fences to fill his lungs up. In terms of a betting proposition though, the only recommendation is Saint Roi. Don’t think he’ll win it and jumping is sketchy at best, but he’s powered up the hill the last two years (including when 4^th in the Champion Hurdle) and with the likelihood of only 5 or 6 runners, you might be able to steal 3 places antepost. I wouldn’t even be averse to backing in a without market if one emerges before declarations, but be careful as bookies don’t take kindly to “dirty” each way bets.

 

Ultima: Oscar Elite 12s, Iceo Madrik 50s

The one race on the Tuesday I’ve struggled for a selection, because all those I fancy look fairly ground dependent and a couple I liked have been taken out. Oscar Elite is definitely well handicapped off just 1lb higher than his third in this last year. He’s coming in off the back of what was probably a career best and loves Cheltenham in the spring. He wouldn’t want it soft though, so maybe hold fire on that basis. If the heavens open, Iceo Madrik could be interesting. He’s a bit of a stab in the dark at a wild price as it’s his first run for David Pipe after coming over from France. He has run to a good level in Grade 3s over there so 140 less 5lbs weight for age could see him pretty well handicapped, for all his jumping is a bit ropey and he’s only really ever run in the mud.

 

Champion Hurdle: Not So Sleepy (w/o Constitution Hill) 50s

Even if this race cuts up to 6 runners, which looks likely, it should be one of the spectacles of the festival, either because Constitution Hill produces another jaw-dropping performance or because State Man serves it up to him in a real tussle. The former is the more likely but I can’t be tipping him at 1.4 so the bet for this race is a slightly dirty each way without the fav. Not So Sleepy is 50s in that market. He’s getting on a bit but has run well in this in the last couple of years and may only need to beat one or two home to be in the money.

 

Mares Hurdle: Honeysuckle 5/2, Queen’s Brook 11s

Lots of people are knocking Honeysuckle but she’s still put up the best performance by a mare this season by coming second to State Man at the DRF last time out in a race that wouldn’t have suited her (they went very slow). Anything 2/1 or bigger is a bet, or at the very least one to add to your accas. There’s a host of challengers, but I can’t see Epatante overturning the form of their two Champion Hurdle meetings, Echoes In Rain may not stay and wasn’t good enough last year, while Brandy Love and Love Envoi are yet to show they can hit the required heights in open company. Last year’s winner Marie’s Rock could be good enough but looks destined for the Stayers, so it’s the horse that chased her home in that renewal who gets the each way nod at 14s or bigger (she should lengthen based on her exchange price of 25). She made a hash of the last then so could’ve been closer, beat Brandy Love comfortably last time (admittedly in receipt of weight) and this would’ve been the plan all along so there’s no reason to think she held much of a fitness edge. If a bit of the forecast rain were to fall she’s a live player against plenty of suspect stayers.

 

Boodles: Samuel Spade 20s, Almuhit 33s, Action Motion 33s, Jazzy Matty 20s

Depending on how you read a race you can make a case for a number in here. I generally plump for one on either side of the Irish Sea in this on the basis that collateral form is pretty sparse for juveniles. This year the general consensus is the Irish are much better than the British in this division and while that may be true of the better horses (Comfort Zone and Nusret have poached the three Grade 2s over here to date), those coming over at a lower level have fared less well. Either way, Samuel Spade is certainly well handicapped on form, particularly versus Perseus Way (and therefore all his collateral form), given there’d be a whopping 14lb swing for a 3 length Perseus Way victory when they faced each other earlier in the season. Samuel Spade has won his other two starts eye-catchingly and it’s difficult to see where his limit lies so should go well off 126. I like both of Denis Hogan’s in this at bigger prices, Almuhit and Action Motion. The former will struggle to get in off 117 (needs 3 to come out and same owners may plump for Action Motion anyway), but ran ok last time despite nothing going right and looks very well handicapped as a result, particularly if you take into account his flat rating of 92. The latter was given a very tender ride after the last last time out when in with a chance and looks feasibly handicapped on that basis at an each way price off 125. I’d wait for the day as both are weak on the exchange. If neither of those run, Jazzy Matty is more exposed than some others with five starts but has been fairly well supported in most of these races and has had various excuses (jumped the second last poorly and was then handled tenderly last time) in those where he’s underperformed.

 

National Hunt Chase: Gaillard Du Mesnil 5/4

He’s flirting with odds on now and there have been upsets at those prices in the past here, but Gaillard Du Mesnil harbours no real doubts like some of them did. He stays (as shown in the Irish Grand National last year), he’s classy (as shown by his Grade 1 win and 4^th of 150 in the Irish Grand National), he’ll have one of the better jockeys, he’s not ground dependent – I could go on. He’s also got minimal competition. Stick him in a double with Honeysuckle at anything around evens. Although unreliable, Minella Crooner has the class to come second, so see if Jamie Codd picks Chemical Energy instead and he drifts to a backable price (16s or bigger) each way or even in the without market if there is one.

DRF Sectionals

I expected the DRF to be the perfect place to make my first foray into sectional timing, with a number of races over the same course and distance, and the hope of similar ground across the two days as they attempted to avoid a rash of non-runners by keeping it soft enough through watering. The rain overnight into the Sunday didn’t help and reflects the fact that the second day saw generally slower times, nor did the pesky sun, meaning that for both the 2m Novice Hurdle and 2m Handicap Hurdle, they skipped the second last flight, but in different ways. More on that below.

I’ve split analysis into four sections:

- 2m hurdle races, of which there were four (including three on the Sunday) with some hypothetically penalised bumper horses running over 2m thrown into the mix for fun.
- 2m bumpers, of which there were two (geldings and mares).
- 2m5f+ chases, of which there were three.
- 2m1f chases, of which there were three.

2m hurdle races

	Honey.	SG adj	CML adj	LDB adj	Vauban	FV adj
Net weight vs H.	0lbs	+7lbs	-1lb	+3lbs	-3lbs	+6lbs
To hurdle 2	53.5	55.6	51.4	53.8	52.3	54.0
To hurdle 4	64.9	63.4	64.5	65.2	66.8	64.3
Cumulative	118.3	119.0	115.9	119.1	119.1	118.4
To 2 out	77.2	76.5	79.3	79.4	77.8	78.4
Cumulative	195.6	195.5	195.2	198.4	196.9	196.7
From 2 out	47.9	46.8	49.3	51.2	44.5	46.9
Total	243.5	242.4	244.5	249.6	241.3	243.6
Finishing speed	103.2%	105.1%	100.7%	99.1%	110.3%	105.5%

The first four columns show horses that ran on the Sunday, three of which have been adjusted. Sir Gerhard’s time has been lowered by 1 second, split between the last two sectionals, for the fact that he had to go around the second last flight of hurdles, which cost him somewhere in the region of that time in comparison to Honeysuckle. Call Me Lyreen’s time has been increased by 0.64 seconds (using Simon Rowlands’ assumptions for time taken to jump a hurdle), again split between the last two sectionals as he could go through, rather than around, the second last hurdle. On the flipside, Lily Du Berlais’ time has been increased by 5.12 seconds split equally between the four sectionals, showing how she would have been inconvenienced had hurdles been in her way. She helps to frame the other three times by showing how below average horses might have run, admittedly in a race run at too frenetic a pace.

The facts are these. Despite some disagreement on official timings, Sir Gerhard ran a time that was marginally quicker than Honeysuckle, even though he was inconvenienced by having to go around the second last flight to the tune of about a second and running less economically. He was carrying the same weight as Honeysuckle’s male rivals and, despite jumping woefully, would’ve served it up to her a good deal more effectively than her below par oppo on that day that mostly sat in the 150+ bracket when taking into account Echoes In Rain’s mares’ allowance. It was a monstrous performance.

But Honeysuckle wasn’t fully extended, they say on Twitter. True, and it’s difficult to know what she had left in the tank, but Sir Gerhard was lengthening all the way to the line, unlike her. But Honeysuckle put her rivals to bed with her turn of foot, so they say. Her move between the last two flights was no quicker than that of Sir Gerhard, even before taking into account the fact he had further to travel. But Henry de Bromhead is out of form at the moment, they say. That appears to be true, but I’d argue his unbelievable form at the last festival is more anomalous than his current quiet spell.

It doesn’t matter really as they’re not going to come up against one another this season, but it means I’ll be looking to take on Honeysuckle going forward (if possible – the cupboard is bare) and siding with Sir Gerhard, even if he were to rock up in the lion’s den that is the Supreme. As well as putting him clear of Honeysuckle’s rivals yesterday and into the 150s in terms of ratings, he was a good 15lbs clear of Call Me Lyreen with adjustments, weights and the economic finishing speed of the latter accounted for.

What about Vauban, who streaked clear of a mostly unbeaten field in the Spring Juvenile? His turn of foot, honed on the flat in France, was the winner. Expect the Triumph Hurdle field to serve up a markedly different test to him on the stamina-sapping New Course that may suit the second, Fil Dor, better. Equally, Il Etait Temps, tactically disadvantaged at the back of the pack off the slow pace, ran remarkably for a debutant over hurdles and will surely come on for the run and be positioned more aggressively. I took 20s NRNB after the race and I’d be on him antepost at that price too were there not the slight possibility that Mullins might put him away to have as another ace up his sleeve in next year’s novice hurdling division.

 

2m bumpers

	Facile Vega	Sandor Clegane	Embassy Gardens	Lily Du Berlais	Ashroe Diamond
Net weight vs FV	0lbs	0lbs	0lbs	-3lb	-3lbs
To hurdle 2	52.8	53.0	52.7	52.5	53.4
To hurdle 4	63.0	63.1	63.4	64.0	63.0
Cumulative	115.8	116.1	116.1	116.5	116.4
To 2 out	77.1	77.2	77.6	78.1	78.8
Cumulative	192.9	193.2	193.7	194.6	195.3
From 2 out	45.6	47.7	49.8	49.9	50.9
Total	238.5	241.0	243.5	244.5	246.2
Finishing speed	106.2%	102.5%	99.3%	99.5%	98.2%

The first three columns show the winner, the second and the frontrunner in the bumper on the Saturday, while the last two show the winner of the mares’ bumper and Ashroe Diamond, who was prominent early on and stuck on well to finish a close fourth.

Facile Vega’s sectionals would make you think he quickened the best off a slow pace and plenty around were making similar comments after the race. “Get him running at Champion Bumper pace,” screamed the critics and anyone with an American Mike ticket in their pockets. However, what may have been a slow pace for him was more regular for the others in the race. Embassy Gardens ended up going off marginally too quickly for what he was capable of on the day, while Sandor Clegane, the only one to get anywhere near Facile Vega, only had to quicken slightly from two out. Facile Vega has clearly got a turn of foot, but his mum was more adept over 3m than 2m so rule him out as one trick pony at your peril.

The mares’ bumper is more straightforward to dissect. They all went too quickly, but Lily Du Berlais the least inefficiently of the lot. She could have won by a lot more had her jockey not given the rest of the field the best part of two seconds at the start. Ashroe Diamond and Pink In the Park fared best of those who were up with the pace and could well be better prospects than the second and third in the race, but maybe not the winner given her tardy start.

 

2m5f chases

	Galopin Des Champs	Gaillard Du Mesnil	Birchdale	Blackbow	Conflated
Net weight vs GDC	0lbs	0lbs	-23lbs	-1lb	0lbs
Winning line	101.1	101.4	100.5	100.6	103.0
Fence 9 (ditch)	108.9	108.9	109.7	109.3	111.0
Cumulative	210.0	210.2	210.3	209.9	214.0
2 out	69.1	69.2	71.3	71.3	68.1
Cumulative	279.1	279.5	281.5	281.2	282.1
Finish	50.8	52.4	53.9	56.7	50.3
Total	330.0	331.9	335.4	338.0	332.4
Finishing speed	103.6%	101.1%	99.3%	95.0%	105.4%

Galopin Des Champs put up another monstrous performance visually and the clock backed him up. He was faster than the 156-rated Blackbow, and while he was outsprinted to the line by Conflated in virtual terms (who had run 3 furlongs further), times on the Sunday were generally slower after the overnight rain.

Impressive as he was, there are a couple of caveats. Two meaningful opponents came down mid-race in the shape of Capodanno and Beacon Edge, and either of them could easily have been more competitive than those who did not. More importantly with regard to where he goes next, the pace of the race was not as hot as some are making out. Townend said afterwards that they were going quickly down the back, but even Gaillard Du Mesnil, who I keep saying wants further, was able to keep tabs and even run slightly within himself.

Why does this matter? The point is that GDC has yet to encounter a fierce pace that will test his stamina. Even winning over 3m over hurdles at Punchestown last season, he quickened off a slow pace. If Ahoy Senor were to turn up and make it a test, GDC would be into unknown territory. Far better the devil you know (i.e. Bob Olinger and L’Homme Presse) over 2m4f than the devil you don’t over 3m versus Bravemansgame (himself with stamina question marks) and Ahoy Senor, plus a host of others that may fancy themselves to turn the tables over further.

They went too fast in the handicap (the 156-rated Blackbow more than most) and, despite benefitting at the weights, were inferior to the novices that had preceded them, giving a degree of substance to the form.

Conflated managed to beat his Irish Gold Cup foes by skipping clear just before 2 out off a slowish pace and that is reflected by his relatively fast finish (even faster than Blue Lord – see below). He won last time over 2m4f and looks very short for the Cheltenham Gold Cup considering it will be a completely different test. He could even be more suited to the Ryanair. Minella Indo will clearly be far more suited by Cheltenham, but there’s a chance he may be forced to make his own running. Seriously. Look through the betting and see who’ll make it. Santini maybe for half a lap until he can’t keep it up? I’m almost coming round to Galvin on the basis this might end up being a sprint like all his recent wins.

 

2m1f chases

	Chacun Pour Soi	A Wave Of The Sea	Blue Lord	Riviere D'Etel	Saint Sam
Net weight vs CPS	0lbs	-7lbs	0lbs	-9lbs	-2lbs
Fence 3	72.6	72.7	70.8	70.8	70.0
Fence 6	72.3	70.7	68.8	68.4	68.6
Cumulative	145.0	143.5	139.6	139.2	138.6
2 out	68.6	69.2	67.3	67.5	67.7
Cumulative	213.6	212.6	206.9	206.7	206.3
Finish	50.3	51.4	51.3	51.6	52.5
Total	263.9	264.0	258.2	258.3	258.8
Finishing	103.4%	101.3%	99.1%	98.7%	97.2%

I’m a big Chacun fan, have backed him from the Champion Chase and was warmed by Willie’s words that he rates him higher than Energumene, but the sectionals show his performance on Sunday was run of the mill rather than spectacular. He ran a similar time to the 141-rated A Wave Of The Sea (carrying 7lbs less and running more efficiently) the previous day, suggesting the pace wasn't particularly hot, as even though the handicap was run on better ground, it was far from a strong one. Chacun's finish was comparable to Galopin Des Champs over 4 furlongs further on the same card, suggesting he didn't overexert himself on the run in either. It’s clear that Chacun Pour Soi has run plenty of more impressive races in his time, not least at Punchestown last spring off a particularly hot pace. Greaneteen was the only horse in the race rated in the same ballpark and ran no sort of race, while the others are probably mid-150 performers at best (Dunvegan looks particularly hard done by raised to 162). He’ll need a lot more to take down his stablemate Energumene, let alone the mighty Shishkin.

There’s not a huge amount of point comparing his race with the Irish Arkle the day before in pure time terms given the ground differences, but it is clear that race had a very different complexion. Saint Sam went hard and made it a proper test, running inefficiently in the process but staying on to be beaten only four lengths. In fact, the top 3 were also in that order of efficiency, meaning that they could have finished much closer together. As many have pointed out, Saint Sam was impressive in not folding when he gave way, and he could go up in trip to be Mullins’ Turners number one if Galopin Des Champs goes to 3m. While Riviere D’Etel could be marked up enough to turn the tables with Blue Lord (particularly if you take her squiffy jump at the last into account), she’ll lose 2lbs of her allowance and there’s a chance Blue Lord wasn’t doing a lot once he hit the front. All to play for in the Arkle, particularly if you throw in Edwardstone and the rejuvenated Third Time Lucki.